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大中华区顶级写字楼供应/需求趋势(英)

房地产 2026-03-01 - 戴德梁行 章嘉艺
报告封面

Mar 2026 Cushman & Wakefield Executive Summary Where It’s At Where It’ll Be CONTENTS 2026 GREATER CHINATOP OFFICE SUPPLY / DEMANDTRENDS The Seven City-Level MarketsBeijing——P14Shanghai——P17Shenzhen——P20Guangzhou——P23Chengdu——P26Hong Kong——P29Taipei——P32 Contacts THEGENERALMARKET EXECUTIVESUMMARY At the end of Q4 2025, Grade A office inventory in 21 major cities inGreater China we track totaled 99.2 million sq m. For the full year2025, total new office supply in the major cities rose 8.4% y-o-y to4.6 million sq m. Grade A office market space new supply in GreaterChina is expected to peak in 2026. Macroeconomic pressures have weighed on the growth of officedemand. Total office net absorption across key cities for 2025reached 2.3 million sq m, a marginal increase from the prior year.Driven by large-scale new supply and relatively weak demand, theoverall vacancy rate of the tracked major Greater China cities rose1.0 percentage points y-o-y to 25.4%. Taipei registered the lowest vacancy rate at 7.9% among all trackedcities. As for the tier-1 city group, only Beijing posted a vacancy ratebelow 20%, while Zhengzhou logged the lowest vacancy rate in thetier-2 city group at 23.5%. Office rents remained under pressure,with the average Grade A office rental level in all major citiesdeclining y-o-y,with the exception ofTaipei. Large-scale future supply, combined with global uncertainties andstructural pressures on the domestic economy,will furtherexacerbate broad-based market headwinds.On the other hand,accelerated development of new quality productive forces andongoing supportive policies will drive gradual leasing demandgrowth in relevant sectors. Beijing Shanghai Guangzhou Shenzhen SupplyA total of six projects entered the SupplyNo new supply entered the Beijing SupplyShenzhen’s new office supply jumped SupplyIn 2025, Shanghai saw 14 new Grade A 2.5 times y-o-y to 712,000 sq m in2025. Citywide total Grade A officestock expanded past 9 million sq m.Landlords prioritized transactionnumbers over rental levels, pullingdown overall average monthly rents11.7% y-o-y to RMB149.4 per sq m. office projects launch, addingapproximately 0.85 million sq m—slightly higher than in 2024. Overallcitywide vacancy rose to 23.4%, whileaverage rents declined 9.8% y-o-y toRMB 201.4 per sq m per month. office market in 2025, with total GradeA office stock unchanged at 13.68million sq m. Guangzhou Grade A office market in2025, adding 377,712 sq m of newsupply, a significant y-o-y increase of118.7%. The city's total stock climbedto 7.05 million sq m. Facingoversupply, most landlords continuedto trim rents, with the citywideaverage rental level declining 11.5% y-o-y to RMB116.3 per sq m per month. Demand In 2025, citywide net absorptionreached 327,855 sq m—curtailed bysofter new leasing demand, leasesurrenders and space downsizing—ona par with 2024 levels. With no newsupply added in the last year,sustained absorption of the existinginventory continued to drive downvacancy. The citywide vacancy rate fellby 2.4 percentage points y-o-y to15.89%. For new leases and relocations,the TMT, finance, and professionalservices sectors accounted for 45.1%,17.6% and 14.8% of total new leasedarea, respectively. The new energysector ranked fourth with a 5.5% shareof total leased area. DemandLeasing demand remained under pressure, with corporate relocationsdominating activity. The professionalservices, finance, TMT, and retail & tradesectors together accounted for nearly70% of total leasing volume, showingclear industry clustering. Demand Net absorption improved to 264,000sq m for 2025. Nonetheless, thesupply-to-demand ratio increased to2.7, revealing signs of weakness onthe demand side. By leasedtransaction area, the TMT sector Demand In 2025, citywide net absorptionreached 181,622 sq m, a 43.1% y-o-yincrease, and approximately doublethat of 2023. Domestic enterpriseswere the main drivers of leasingtransactions. The top three industrysectors by leased area share werefinance, TMT, and retail & trade. dominated the Grade A office leasingmarket in 2025, accounting forapproximately one-third of the totalleased area. Outlook For the 2026 to 2028 period, 26 newprojects at approximately 2.79 million sqm are scheduled to enter the market,including over 1.2 million sq m across 13projects in 2026 alone. Marketdifferentiation will intensify, with green Outlook Outlook By 2028, Guangzhou is projected tosee 2.59 million sq m of new supply.The International Financial City andPazhouwill be the primary supplyareas. Headquarters propertiesdeveloped by internet companies andother various industrial enterpriseswill become the mainstream supply.Market competition will continue tointensify. More than 4 million sq m of new officesupply is scheduled to enter themarket through the next three years,with most slated for the ShenzhenBay Headquarters base, and QianhaiandHouhai submarkets. The futuresupply influx will exert greaterdownward pressu