2026年欧洲宏观展望：双经济体问题：能源冲击下的韧性与刚性

Europe Macro Outlook 2026The two-economy problem: resilience vs rigidity amid an energy shock Mark Wall | Managing DirectorChief European Economist May 2026 Euro Area Macro Outlook:Summary Framing: ‘Two-economy’ problem ▪Pre-conflict:Europeaneconomycaughtbetweencyclicalresilienceandstructuralrigidity ❑Resilience:Despiteexternalheadwinds(tariffs,etc),GDPexceededexpectationsat1.5%in2025duetodomesticdemand❑Rigidity:TheworldischangingandEuropeneedstoinvest/innovate/reformtoregaincompetitiveness,obtainautonomy❑Germanfiscaleasingexpectedtounderpingrowthresiliencein2026–butimpulseprovingslowerthanexpected Warning: Middle East conflict has unleashed second energy shock in 4 years ▪Europehighlyexposedtorisingcostofimportedenergy ❑GDPgrowthloweredto0.5%in2026(1.1%pre-conflictestimate),HICPraisedto3.1%(1.8%pre-conflictestimate)❑Stagflationdynamics:surveydataconsistentwithriskofpersistentinflation;economythreatenedbycontraction❑‘Measured’ECBtightening,atmost:goodriskmanagementbetweenupsideinflationriskanddownsidegrowthrisk Weak competitiveness–in need of strategic autonomy ❑DefencespendingwillinevitablyneedtorisefurtherasEuropebuildsowndeterrencecapabilities❑Greaterautonomyalsoneededinenergy,technology,supplychains,financing,payments,etc❑Significantinvestmentneeds–buthighpublicindebtednessandpoliticalfragmentationarehurdles Source: Deutsche Bank World Outlook 2026:Anything but dull 2026promisedtobeanythingbutdull.Itislivinguptoexpectations:theextractionofPresidentMadurofromVenezuela,theAI/Techsectorcorrection,threatstoGreenland,privatecredittensions,overturningoftheIEEPAtariffs,andwarinIranwithanewenergyshock.Evenifgeopoliticsquietens,AIislikelytocomebackanddominatemarketsentimentanddriveboom-and-bustnarratives. Europe’s “two-economy problem”:Resilience vs. Rigidity ThemoreupbeatperspectiveonEuropeputsemphasison‘resilience’.Growthoutperformedexpectationsin2025despitetheexternalheadwinds,thankstoarobustlabourmarket,effectivemonetarytransmission,etc.Germany’sexpansionaryfiscalpolicywasexpectedtoaddresiliencein2026.ThemoredownbeatperspectiveemphasizesEurope’s‘rigidity’.Weareinarapidlychangingworldmarkedbygeostrategiceconomiccompetition.Europeshouldbeinnovating,investing,reforming–andisfindingthisdifficult. Iran Shock:A new energy price shock Russia’sinvasionofUkrainein2022remindedusofsomethingimportant.JustastheGFCshowednowsensitiveeconomicgrowthistothe supplyof credit,economic growthisalsosensitive tothesupplyofenergy.All economicactivityhasan energycounterpart,somehigh,somelow.Whenenergycostsarehigh,andinparticularwhenenergyisinshortsupply,itisverydifficultfortheeconomytogrow.ThechartbelowshowsrealoilpriceswithUSrecessionsshaded Iran Shock:Signs of persistently higher oil prices Theglobaleconomy,andEurope,isinahighlycontingentsituation.Thepathofeconomiesandpolicywillbeafunctionofenergyprices.TheECBhasdevelopedabaselinescenarioandtworiskscenarios:adverseandsevere.GaspricesareveryclosetotheECB’sbaselinescenario.2026oilpriceshaveconvergedtotheadversescenario.2027oilpricesremainabovetheadversescenario. Euro Area Macro Forecasts:Inflation up, growth down Theenergyshockishavingadetrimentalimpactontheoutlook.OurbaselineforecastseesGDPgrowthat0.5%in2026(1.1%pre-conflict)and1.1%in2027(1.3%pre-conflict).WeforecastHICPinflationat3.1%in2026(1.8%pre-conflict)and2.5%in2027(1.9%pre-conflict).WethinktheconsensusandECBareunderestimatinginflationandasaconsequenceoverestimatinggrowth. Growth Signals:Soft in Q2, with downside risks TheeuroareacompositeoutputPMIindexfellinApriltoalevelconsistentwith-0.1%qoqGDPgrowth.Theweaknessislessevidentinmanufacturing–wheresupplyshortagesmaybetemporarilyliftingdemand–andmoreobviousinservices–whereinflationexpectationsarehittingdemand.TheDBFIStracker(RHS)impliesgrowthof+0.1%qoqinQ2(weakerZEWandBLShaveweighedonthesignalrecently). Activity Shock:Energy shock more clearly impacting services activity Therecentlossofeconomicmomentumismoreobviousinservices,wherethecountriesreportingthelargestdropsinconsumerconfidence(becauseofrisinginflation)arealsothecountriesreportingthelargestdropsinPMIservicesactivity. Divergence:Energy shock is largely a common shock across member states ThechangeintheEuropeanCommission’sEconomicSentimentIndex(ESI)–agoodgaugeofeconomicgrowth–showsaspreadofconditionsinthetwomonthssincethestartoftheMiddleEastconflict(LHS).TheCEEeconomiesaremostresilient,perhapsreflectingthelargerroleofmanufacturinginthoseeconomiesandthepotentiallytransitorystock-buildingimpulse.ThestandarddeviationofESIsacrossthememberstatesisataveragelevels(RHS).Thereisnosenseyetofasymmetricshock. Iran Shock:Recession risk has increased Oncurrentoilandgasprices,theeuroarea’senergyimportbillwillbeabout0.75%ofGDPhigherin2026than2025(LHSchart).GiventhatGDPgrowthwasexpectedtobemarginallyabove1%in2026(pre-conflictforecast),allelseunchangedthisenergypriceraisesaclearthreatofrecession.Ourmodelpointstoarecessionprobabilityof45%inQ2risingto60%inQ3. Positives #1:Labour market Oneofthemainreasonsforam