加蓬：为开发用于预测和模拟的宏观经济模型提供技术援助-范围界定任务

GABON Technical Assistance for the Development of aMacroeconomic Model for Projection and February2026 Prepared By Jacques LandryBikai(ICDMF-AFRITAC Central), RabahArezki(STX), and Pegdewende NestorSawadogo(ICDCI) Authoring Department: Institute for Capacity Development High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Report Institute for Capacity Development Gabon;Technical Assistance for the Development of a Macroeconomic Model for Projection andSimulations - Scoping Mission TheHigh-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reportseries provides high-level summaries of the assistance provided to IMF capacity development recipients, describing the high-levelobjectives, findings, and recommendations. ABSTRACT:This technical assistance report documents the key phases of the scoping mission for thedevelopment of a macroeconomic model based on financial programming, conducted in Libreville fromMay 5 to 15, 2025, on behalf of the Ministry of Economy and Participations of Gabon. The missionundertook a comprehensive assessment of existing analytical tools and data quality, alongside deliveringtargeted training on financial programming and debt analysis. The exercise highlighted various areas to DISCLAIMER The contents of this document constitute a high-level summary of technical advice provided by the staff ofthe International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the authorities of a member country or international agency (the"CD recipient") in response to their request for capacity development. Unless the CD recipient specifically International Monetary Fund, IMF PublicationsP.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, U.S.A.T. +(1) 202.623.7430 • F. +(1) 202.623.7201publications@IMF.org Background This report presents the findings of a technical assistance mission conducted by the IMF at therequest of the Gabonese Ministry of Economy and Participations (MEP), submitted in July 2024.The request aimed to support the development of a coherent macroeconomic model and to strengthennational capacities in economic policy analysis. It followed a preliminary needs assessment mission which The scoping mission, conducted in Libreville from May 5 to 16, 2025, represented the initial phaseof a multi-year project estimated to span approximately two years. Its primary objective was to carryout a comprehensive technical assessment of the existing macroeconomic frameworks, decision-makingprocesses, communication channels, inter-institutional coordination, adequacy of human and technical In line with capacity development objectives, the mission devoted six days to intensive training onfinancial programming and debt analysis.This training focused on core principles of financialprogramming and was delivered using a standard version of the Macroframework Foundations Tool(MFT1), populated with Gabonese data extracted from the IMF’s databases. This approach facilitated the Summary of Findings The capacity-building project in macroeconomic modeling responds to the structural imbalancesand vulnerabilities affecting the Gabonese economy. The assessment of macroeconomic imbalances,as highlighted in the 2024 IMF Article IV consultation report, underscores the urgent need to restore fiscal An interinstitutional approach has been adopted to ensure the technical ownership and coherenceof the model’s assumptions.Within this framework, the Directorate General of Economy and FiscalPolicy (DGEPF), the primary beneficiary of the technical assistance, collaborates closely with multiplepublic entities, including the Bank of Central African States (BEAC). By MEP directive, experts from Petroleum, and Mines. All these agencies are members of the Interministerial Committee forMacroeconomic and Budgetary Framework (CICMB), established by Prime Ministerial decree (No. The technical diagnosis assessed the gaps in the existing tools, human capacity, and data quality. The current forecasting framework relies on the quasi-accounting MEGA++ model, which requiresextensive data and does not allow for simulation of economic policy shocks nor integration of a debtdeterminants analysis. Other tools exist but suffer from limited staff familiarity and use. Furthermore, dataquality and timeliness remain critical constraints, as national accounts have not been updated since 2010. Summary of Recommendations To address the identified constraints, the mission recommended a phased and pragmaticapproach for the development of the model and its integration into the decision-making process.The initial phase involves deploying a progressively customized version of the MFT, a financialprogramming model developed in Excel. This model ensures accounting consistency across the real, Capacity development is a cornerstone of the project, aimed at ensuring the sustainable use ofthe model.Given the heterogeneity of skills within the working group, the mission recommendedestablishing a continuous training program that combines hands-on sessions, online courses, and the Clarification of insti