上游价格维持分化，下游消费增长

中观总览 上游：春节期间上游行业各板块表现分化：煤炭市场内外有别，国内动力煤价格因库存去化小幅反弹，海外煤价则受印尼供给扰动和欧美寒潮需求提振而显著上涨；原油在地缘政治风险推动下冲高回落；有色金属价格受美联储政策预期扰动震荡，供需偏紧格局不改；建材、钢铁等则因下游停工而平稳运行，库存季节性累积。 中游：春节期间中游生产休工，节前整体总量收缩，结构分化。一方面，受益于低原料成本与春节前下游季节性备货的双重利好，化学原料和橡胶塑料等中游化工行业景气指数逆势攀升至偏热区间，实现了生产、利润与库存周转的同步上升；另一方面，机械设备行业内外销增速虽仍亮眼，但工程机械订单因基建停工下滑较多；此外，出口端在“抢出口”效应下保持一定韧性，外贸货运量同比维持增长。 下游：春节期间下游消费市场与地产呈现分化态势：一方面，消费市场在“量增价稳”的基调下稳步上行，全国重点零售和餐饮企业日均销售额较去年假期增长。以旧换新政策持续发力，汽车、家电等耐用品节中消费升温；另一方面，房地产市场则延续调整态势，春节期间重点城市新房成交面积较去年农历同期下降较多，二手房成交同样大幅回落，整体成交清淡。 细分行业 大农业：玉米、棉花价格维持上行，棕榈油价格回落；苹果库存持续回落。 能源：国际原油价格节后与节前持稳。 采矿业：有色价格方面锌和镍回落，铜小幅震荡。有色库存方面铜与铝回升，镍回落；黑色价格方面商品集体价格与节前持稳，库存方面炼焦煤持续上行。 化工：苯乙烯、聚乙烯价格小幅回落，其余化工品较年前持稳；尿素库存回落。 基建：混凝土水泥价格双双回落。基建材料产能、供给受节假日影响大幅回落。 地产：重点监控城市节假日期间新房成交量集体回落；节前杭州、深圳和成都新房成交较上期上升较多。 物流运输：美西航线指数维持低位；铁路与水路运输量回落；国际与国内航班班次持续上行。 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 目录 一、中观总览............................................................................................................................................4二、行业总览............................................................................................................................................52.1生产行业............................................................................................................................................................................52.2服务行业............................................................................................................................................................................6三、行业定价............................................................................................................................................7四、细分行业跟踪....................................................................................................................................104.1广义农业..........................................................................................................................................................................104.2化工行业..........................................................................................................................................................................104.3有色行业..........................................................................................................................................................................114.4黑色行业..........................................................................................................................................................................114.5基建行业..........................................................................................................................................................................124.6物流运输..........................................................................................................................................................................134.7汽车制造业......................................................................................................................................................................144.8地产行业..........................................................................................................................................................................14 图表 图1：全社会用电量....................................................................................................................................................................4图2：GDP分产业........................................................................................................................................................................4图3：通胀....................................................................................................................................................................................4图4：PMI....................................................................................................................................................................................4图5：生产行业PPI......................................................................................................................................................................5图6：生产行业工业增加值同比................................................................................................................................................5图7：纺织市场景气指数............................................................................................................................................................6图8：上海出口集装箱结算运价指数........................................................................................................................................6图9：邮政数据............................................................................................................................................................................6图10：社会消费品零售同比......................................................................................................................................................6图11：行业市场定价.......................................................................