Market Summary Framework
1. CBOT Market Outlook
- Upside Resistance: $4.45 - $4.50 per bushel in May corn contract.
- Potential Uptrend: If resistance broken, market could move to $4.60 initially, then to $4.85 - $5.05.
- EU Grain Imports: Proposed duties on Russian grain imports; no similar duties on Ukrainian grain.
- China GMO Seed Traits: 27 new traits approved for planting, aiming to boost yields.
- Federal Reserve: Kept interest rates at 5.25% - 5.50%; projections show core inflation ending higher, unemployment slightly lower.
- US Farm Bill: Proposal for significant funding boost for Market Access Program (MAP) and Foreign Market Development Program (FMD).
2. CBOT May 2024 Corn Futures
- Current Market Values: Not specified.
- US Weather/Crop Progress:
- West: Warm, dry weather in California and Southwest; showers expected in Pacific Northwest.
- Plains: Cold air in northern Montana and Dakotas; warm, dry weather in southern Plains.
- Corn Belt: Dry weather; cold air in northern Corn Belt.
- South: Scattered frost in Alabama and Georgia; dry weather favors spring fieldwork.
3. Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS)
- Prices: Averaged $187 per short ton, down $4 from previous week.
- DDGS/Cash Corn Ratio: 1.24, down slightly from 1.26.
- DDGS/KC Soybean Meal Ratio: 0.54, level with last week.
- Ethanol Production: 1.046 million bpd, up 2% week-over-week and 5% year-over-year.
4. Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads
- Red Sea: Attacks by Houthis causing vessels to avoid the region, leading to longer transit lengths and higher costs.
- Panama Canal: Water levels in Gatun Lake unchanged; freshwater surcharge at 2.89%.
- Baltic Ocean Freight Indices: Firm for smaller vessel sizes; BDI down 3.6% due to Capesize market weakness.
- Grain Shipments: Rates strongest out of Atlantic Basin in North and South America.
5. U.S. Export Statistics
- Corn: Net sales down 8% from previous week, up 10% from 4-week average. Exports up 21% from previous week.
- Barley: No net sales reported.
- Sorghum: Net sales up 71% from previous week, exports up 19% from 4-week average.
