市场展望——2024年3月21日

Market Perspectives March 21, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT May 2024 Corn Futures......................................................................................................... 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 8Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ................................................................................. 9DDGS Comments....................................................................................................................................... 9Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 10Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 10U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 12Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 12Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 12Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 12 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook Bottoming action continues to be seen as CBOT futures chop sideways to higher this week. Thedowntrend that has been in place since October 2023 currently provides upside resistance in the Maycorn contract between $4.45 and $4.50 per bushel. If the market can work its way through thatresistance, then an intermediate uptrend could be developing that could support the market movinginitially to the $4.60 level and eventually up towards strong resistance between $4.85 and $5.05 basisthe May contract. It appears that the market pierced through the trendline to the upside in Thursday’strade. It is reported that the EU is preparing to place import duties on Russian grain imports as a way to stemthe protests from its farmers. The proposed duty would be either $95 or $104 euros per metric ton.Currently, only modest amounts of Russian grain are imported into the EU. It is Ukrainian grain that isthe focus of the protests, and it is doubtful that the leadership in Brussels will place similar duties onUkrainian grain imports. The EU farmer protests are unlikely to relent until there is a duty mechanism toslow the flow of grain from Ukraine. China has approved another 27 GMO seed traits for planting in the future. These approvals will notimpact 2024 GMO seed availability as China tries to boost domestic corn and soybean yield throughseed technology. It is likely that it will take years for Chinese farmers to fully adopt the new seed andany impacts on production in the near future will be modest. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates at a range of 5.25% to 5.50% following its two-day monetarypolicy meeting. The Fed’s dot plot showed a growing number of officials are coalescing around the viewrates would end 2024 at 4.50% to 4.75%, equivalent to three 25 basis point cuts. The projections nowsignal core inflation will end the year higher and unemployment slightly lower than predicted inDecember. Officials upgraded the gross domestic product projections for 2024 to 2.1% expansion withinflation at 2.4% by the end of the year. The grain markets reacted positively to this news as it is seen assupportive to prices for assets and goods such as commodities. In U.S. farm bill news, it now looks like the House may have a proposal to put on the table by late Mayand action on the proposal could happen in June. Key items for U.S. export markets are proposals forsignificant funding boosts for the Market Access Program (MAP) and Foreign Market DevelopmentProgram (FMD), but back-loaded due to current Regional Agricultural Promotion Program (RAPP)funding. The U.S. ag sector is seeking over $900 million in aid to regain overseas markets lost tocompetitors like Brazil and Russia. USDA has received applications for more than three times the $300million initially allocated in the first round of a five-year export promotion plan. The RegionalAgricultural Promotion Pro