Market Summary Framework
1. Market Overview
- Key Developments: CBOT grain futures under pressure due to soybean price movements and wheat market decline.
- Chinese wheat purchase cancellations pushed wheat market lower, affecting corn prices as well.
- Brazil weather forecast slightly wetter, leading to market retreat.
2. Ethanol Industry
- Record-high corn consumption: 2,837 million bushels in 2023/24, 5.9% above long-term average.
- Ethanol margins: Historic record highs, averaging $1.37 per gallon as of March 12.
- Ethanol production: Increased significantly in February, reaching 434.5 thousand bushels.
- Market projections: LSEG Agricultural Research projects 5,464.4 million bushels for 2023/24, USDA estimate at 5,375 million bushels.
3. CBOT May 2024 Corn Futures
- Current Market Values: Not specified in the summary.
- U.S. Weather/Crop Progress: Cool and dry conditions in the West, rain showers in Plains states, record-high temperatures in the Corn Belt, and warm, dry weather in the South.
4. Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS)
- Prices: Averaged $191 per short ton on March 1, down $2 from the previous week.
- DDGS/cash corn ratio: 1.26, down slightly from 1.31 last week.
- DDGS/KC soybean meal ratio: 0.54, down from 0.55 last week.
- Ethanol production: 1.024 million bpd as of March 8, down 3% week-over-week but up 1% year-over-year.
5. Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads
- Panama Canal: Increasing the number of available transit slots by three through the Panamax Locks.
- Red Sea diversions: Continuing due to Houthi attacks, with vessel owners and operators avoiding the route.
- Baltic Dry Index: Increased nearly 9% to 2,370, with Capesize and Panamax sectors showing strength.
- Ocean freight rates: Strongest out of the U.S. Gulf, with U.S. Gulf to Japan up more than 6%.
6. U.S. Export Statistics
- Corn: Net sales of 1,283,400 MT for 2023/2024, up 16% from the previous week and 19% from the prior 4-week average.
- Barley: No net sales reported for the week, exports of 300 MT to Japan and South Korea.
- Sorghum: Total net sales of 5,700 MT for 2023/2024, down 93% from the previous week and 96% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 65,000 MT to China.
