市场展望——2024年3月7日

Market Perspectives March 7, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT May 2024 Corn Futures......................................................................................................... 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 8Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ................................................................................. 9DDGS Comments....................................................................................................................................... 9Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 10Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 10U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 12Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 12Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 12Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 12 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook The U.S. and world corn market is well supplied today. Ukraine corn is relatively cheap for neighboringimporters. Argentina’s harvest begins in a few months and is expected to be up 20 MMTs year-over-year. Into mid-to-late March, expect May corn futures to find “fair value” in the $4.20 - $4.50 range. However, for buyers of corn there may be some forward supply risks which are masked by the recentdrop in corn prices, and some may say that forward supply risks are enormous. The Brazilian corn cropestimates have been reduced several times and critical Brazilian weather lies just ahead. There aregrowing concerns that negative soil moisture anomalies spread and deepen in Mato Grosso do Sul, SaoPaulo and pockets of Parana and Mato Grosso. Brazil’s monsoon may be waning, and late March-earlyApril rainfall is critical. If the area receives less than 3 inches of rain in April, the safrinha corn crop willlikely have a less than average yield. There is general consensus, along with Ag Ministry estimates, that corn acreage in Ukraine could bedown 8-10% year-over-year. Negative margins, logistical challenges related to the ongoing war and theconscription of ag labor makes spring seeded crops even more difficult this year. If Ukraine only harvests3.6 million hectares (down 10% from last year) and achieves trend yields, production would be 27MMTs, down 3.5 MMTs year-over-year. With large carryover supplies, exports from Ukraine of 22-23MMTs are still possible in crop year 2024/25 which would be unchanged from the current marketingyear, but Ukraine is unlikely to contribute to trade growth. USDA has pegged U.S. corn production at 15 billion bushels with the assumption of a record yield of 181bushels per acre. This would be down 300 million bushels year-over-year. If reductions in the Braziliansafrinha crop are added to reductions in the Ukrainian crop which are added to reductions in the UScrop, global corn production losses begin to mount and are increased if Brazilian dryness is extendedinto April, and US corn yield is 2-3 percent below trend. An additional risk is that 2023’s rather strong El Nino will be short-lived as Equatorial Pacific Oceantemperatures are forecast to collapse over the next 6-7 months and a La Nina will be established inJune-July. A very strong La Nina event is projected for autumn and winter 2024. This bodes favorably forAustralian weather and wheat production but bodes very negatively for weather and yield potential inArgentina and southern Brazil in Nov 2024 – Feb 2025. Historically, the Argentinian corn crop is verychallenged under these conditions. The market is likely to readjust its assessment of risk if and when weather and supply issues emerge andare manifest. But risk is heightened amid current Brazilian forecast, consistent calls for a strong La Nina,while U.S. weather remains uncertain following record warmth i