生猪年报：无可奈何花落去，似曾相识燕归来

 2024 2025 2025 2025 2025  1 2025 2024 2024 2024FW1FW 2024 LH2503 LH2505 FW LH2407LH2409 15085157102024 DMA 26 ETF LH2403 -1- 2024 2024 3 2023 3 2024 LH2409LH2411LH2501 1 LH2411FW 2023 3LH25052024 3 3 4 3 5 3 4 2024 FW 5 8 -2- LH2407LH2409LH2407 LH2409 202418425632024 2024 3 5 2024 5 2024 6 PVC 5 6 5 6 6 2024 8LH250117000 6LH2501 / / 7 -8 -3- 2023 7 FW 2024 5 6 FW 2023FW 2023 2024 8 2024 8 21 LH2501LH2501 FW 6 12 12 12 12 823 2024 -4- 12 17 LH2501 125 2024 2024 2024 -5- 30,000 25,000 1 LH2201LH2301LH2401LH2501 30,000 25,000 3 LH2203LH2303LH2403LH2503 20,00020,000 15,00015,000 10,00010,000 5,0005,000 0 2/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/11/1 0 4/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/11/12/13/1 25,000 20,000 5 LH2205LH2305LH2405LH2505 25,000 20,000 7 LH2207LH2307LH2407LH2507 15,00015,000 10,00010,000 5,0005,000 0 6/17/18/19/110/111/112/11/12/13/14/15/1 0 8/19/110/111/112/11/12/13/14/15/16/17/1 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 30,000 9 LH2109LH2409 LH2209 LH2509 LH2309 11 LH2111LH2411 LH2211 LH2511 LH2311 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 10/111/112/11/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/1 0 12/11/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/1 -6- 2024 /2,000 1,000 0 -1,000 -2,000 /2,000 5-7 LH2205-LH2207 LH2405-LH2407 LH2305-LH2307 5-9 LH2205-LH2209LH2405-LH2409 LH2305-LH2309 1,000 0 -1,000 -2,000 -3,000 -4,000 -3,000 8/19/110/111/112/11/12/13/14/1 -5,000 10/111/112/11/12/13/14/1 /2,000 0 -2,000 -4,000 -6,000 /500 5-11 LH2205-LH2211 LH2405-LH2411 LH2305-LH2311 7-9 LH2207-LH2209LH2407-LH2409 LH2307-LH2309 0 -500 -1,000 -1,500 -2,000 -2,500 -8,000 12/11/12/13/14/1 -3,000 10/111/112/11/12/13/14/15/16/1 7-1 LH2207-LH2301 LH2407-LH2501 LH2307-LH2401 9-1 LH2109-LH2201LH2309-LH2401 LH2209-LH2301 LH2409-LH2501 // 04,000 3,000 -1,000 -2,000 -3,000 -4,000 -5,000 2/13/14/15/16/1 2,000 1,000 0 -1,000 -2,000 -3,000 -4,000 2/13/14/15/16/17/18/1 -7- 2024 16.80/kg12.00% 15.47/kg18.08/kg2024 2023 FW 8 21.18 /kg8 1215-16/kg FW 2024 2024 / 50kg1602 0.31%2024 2024 15kg595/24.02% / 6800 2024 -8- 45.00 40.00 35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 22.00 21.00 20.00 19.00 18.00 17.00 16.00 15.00 14.00 13.00 2024/2/182024/4/182024/6/182024/8/182024/10/182024/12/18 220,000 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 350,000 15KG 20192020 20222023 2021 2024 2019 2022 2020 2023 2021 2024 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 0 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 -9- 2024 4 2.36% 3900 2024 FW 4067 4 3986 FW 5 11 4080 2024 104.60% 92%-105% 2024MSY19.20-19.40 3.10%20241-1111.18/2023 1.45%4.95%3.96%1.45% 20241-9520303.15% 2024Q417700 13.21%6.50%2025Q1188003.40% 2024 9 42694 3.47% 2.80% 2024 1-11 1-9 296112.57%2024 45.25%0.13% -10- 2024 1-9 4240 1.42% 20241-11208.73 17.43%8.404.22% -11- 4,350 4,300 4,250 4,200 4,150 4,100 4,050 4,000 3,950 3,900 3,850 3,800 4,296 4,271 4,2414,240 4,210 4,158 4,142 4,067 4,042 3,9923,9863,996 4,0384,0414,036 4,0624,0734,080 2023-062023-092023-122024-032024-062024-09 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 2024 17,649 16,175 202220232024 19,455 17,965 17,02116,940 15,443 15,635 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2024 19,899 19,566 18,939 20232024 11.40 11.20 11.00 10.80 10.60 10.40 10.20 10.00 9.80 9.60 12.00 11.50 11.00 10.50 10.00 9.50 9.00 8.50 01-0103-0105-0107-0109-0111-01 20202021202220232024 9.40 20212022202320248.00 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 -12- 2024 125.58kg 2.77%2024 2025 2% 2024 15.05%5.12%2024 2025 2025 2019 2022 2020 2023 2021 2024 2019 2022 2020 2023 2021 2024 % 140.0080.00% 130.0060.00% 120.0040.00% 110.0020.00% 100.00 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 0.00% 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 -13- 2024 / 170/232.06 2019 FW 10 201842023 / 628/202311109 /kg 202413.92 /kg 15.20/kg13.20 14.0-14.5/kg2024 / 3450/3140 -14- 4.3030 4.10 3.9025 3.70 3.50 20 3.30 3.10 2.90 15 2.702.50 10 2009/9/8 2013/9/8 2017/9/8 2021/9/8 2021/8/19 2022/8/19 2023/8/19 2024/8/19 -15- 2024 1-922.08% 202320.29%2024 Q3 61% 2022Q268% FW 40%-50%4000 2022 600 2018 1000 2024 89.34 2018 FW 2018 80%70% 500.00 60%50% 400.00 40% 300.00 30% 200.00 600.00 2018 20% 10% 0% 100.00 0.00 -16- — 202520242025 —— —— — —— —— —— 2025 2025 —— —— 2025 -17- 2019 2025 FW20212022 2022 2023 2024 2019 “ ” 202420262024 2027 2028 2018 FW 10 2018 2028 -18- 2025 2025 2025 -19- MSY -20- -21-