社服出行链三季报总结：高基数下触底，关注顺周期弹性

霆ⵚ灇瑕䫣デ ⴔ區䋗〽饭⚥䙼䎂㎗ 䪄⚌綘〿S1130524305800031 2024/11/2 1 涸귬껏ծ⴮꨽㥩✵〳鷥⴮䚍涸兞⼓꡶牰ꂊ䏅㥩✵⯝玘餝暟♲㣐暵䖄կ 䚪3Q錢24假Q康3ⴀ/ꂊ遤䏅Ꝇ/귬嶊껏餩/㛇⯝侨玘⾓蠒⚌⸂佐鵳Ⰶ♧ず姿嫱♳+⼮7.6%匣/㗌-1.䱗2%䎸/絩-5.絯9%ッ/梡-21.5⠅%ꢀ㥩䩾✵ꬋ㉁䧴⸉絑ծ靈⡛侮ⲙ곸ⵄ㥩ⴔ✵ⵆ넞ず곸嫱ծ-⴮14꨽.9㥩%✵/-1〳5.鷥3%/-暵31䖄.0կ%/-5䱗2䎸.5%♳կ兞絩孞絯䏞ッ」梡⻊假♳康>ꂊⴀ䏅遤>Ꝇ귬ぐ껏匣>⯝㗌玘鳅⚹胜湱た⡃暵䖄Q1⠅~ꢀ3㛇㥩侨✵鷶㉁㷍⸉䏞♳假⼮康ծ㥩〜✵⸈ꂊ鿈䏅ⴔ匣ծ㗌⡛⣘곸絛㥩ꆀ✵ず넞嫱곸♳⼮⨊䞔䒗ⲃ㖑♴涸㟞ꂊ鸟假佞㥩綕✵կ⨊匣劥㗌㖑 假➃妃康15㕂.7➉ⰻ➃ⴀ妃遤/➃+2妃1.䲿3%鸟ծ梠假嫱遤Q爢2「1渤1.ⴀ8%㞯㔙䲿ꢭ鸟康㟞儑鸟爙곭⠅⯓ꢀկ康㶩䭯匣絯㗌䚍佐䔂Ⰶ&ꆀ⚌㟞絫⟟䱗Ⲹ䎸馋假⸷遤䒁爢絯>➃կ䊨㶩兞匣⼓㗌>务荈搬假兞遤⼓爢կ넞Q㟞3㕂⚺ⰻ㔔假⡛康㛇♲侨暵♴程ⴀ麤㞯㔙ⵄꢭ嶹康桧꨽䲿宠⼮ず嫱邍僈梡儑湱佖㼆㊤곭⯓荈կ搬兞⼓「넞㛇侨+匧畮㣔孞餏꬗䔲务Ɤ涯㿋鼙冖傢㷍劼㖞ծ넞꜈瘝❜鸑佖㊤ծ ꂊRe䏅vPAR넞㛇㛇侨侨湱♴㼆遤⡛⚌+⣘⾓絛⸂㟞㟞鸟㣐佞綕⚡肅遤Re⚌vP⾓A⸂Rծ剣⚌劅絫綕梠鍒嫱ㅷQ2晥兜ꢂ麑邍䓳梡⻊䧴ⴔ告⻊륫㣢䖉⚡遤肅⚌➠⣘絶꨽䭯Ⱒ넞禹䒓鲮䏅㥩宐䎂륫կ㣢㾝䧴劅「Q渤4䋑⽑䧮桧⟌䲿곫⼮雦կ 귬Q2껏㛇劥Q䭯3䎂⾓⸂䙗➠抠㣐ꝍծ鿈⛰ⴔ嬁ず⛰䏅ㅷ䏀晥鿈꣭鷶䌴幯梠烁嫱雩㼭կ䌴Q佐3爢瑺ꨪ귬䊼껏嫱넞굹㛇ㅷ侨⸈♴湅㟞䏅鸟3Q佞2綕4⽀կ䏅♳佐䋑Ⰶ귬ず⟱嫱务-8.0⛰%嬁ծ⛰梠Q嫱3㣖Q2✳ㅷ-1晥1.ず9%䏅꣭꣭䌴䌴梠佖嫱 ㊤⨊կ⴮Q䚍3涸귬➃껏⸂匣ծ㗌獆⾓ꆄ⸂➠䌄鳅勻㣐絑蠒告勳鿈勍ⴔ䔀♳䚍䋑귬2⟱ずQ䏅4ず䏀嫱鿈㛇鷶侨姿湱烁㼆雩♴ծ꣭鴝ծ꣢9⯓剢㼭䏀䌴⟄佖勻㊤㸪錜たⵞ絯慨Ⱒ佟岤瘻䲀1ⴀ♴䧭涸劥㹐畮崨佖佖㊤㊤佪կ卓㽍Ⱖ僽 ⯝玘Q3넞㛇侨♴꣭䌴➠鳅㣐կ7~9剢嵳⽂猌䀙⯝玘餝暟ꆄ괄ず嫱-36%/-33%/-38%➠ッ梡儑衼♴徾䙖⸷կ 䫏Ⱒ岤餴곡䒊ワ雳劍귬㾝껏劅ծQ4ꂊ䏅䧮䔀⟌䚍㼆կ㶩⚡匣肅㗌ꅾ㛇挿劥Ⱒ꬗岤䱗❇䎸劳⚹ծ假껷康假ծꂊꂊ䏅䏅ծծ⼶귬⡞껏꧋ծ㔙⯝ծ玘涰胿假务康㕂务ծ刿⛰溏嬁㥩⛰O瘝TAկ㶩匣㗌䒸곭遤⚌邍梡姼㢪ꅾ挿 굥ꤗ䲿爙嶊餩⸂䛪㢕鸟䏞♶⿺곫劍➃⸂ծ⾲勞俱䧭劥♳⼮䒓䏅蒜㤉㣟鸟굥ꤗ瘝կ 2 3 •1ծ䚪錢⠅ꢀ〳䭯絯䚍䔂Ⱒ岤Q4⡛㛇侨♴佖㊤瑟ꢂ⿺⚡肅α •2ծ假康㕂ⰻⴀ遤➃妃䲿鸟假遤爢「渤ⴀ㞯㔙ꢭ康㟞鸟곭⯓ •2.1ծQ3ⴀ康➃妃䲿鸟ꆀ㟞⟟Ⲹ暵䖄䒁絯 •2.2ծ⚌絫邍梡假遤爢佐渤⡛㛇侨⿺ⴀ㞯⥝㢕絩絯넞㟞 •3ծꂊ䏅넞㛇侨♴遤⚌⾓⸂㟞㣐Q4劅佖㊤ •3.1ծ絑蠒邍梡RevPAR꣭䌴梠嫱䪈㣐륫㣢倝䒓絶䭯⾎〷넞⡙ •3.2ծ餒⸉邍梡넞㛇侨+⣘絛♳⼮Q3⾓⸂梠嫱㟞㣐 •3.3ծ㾝劅⣘絛㟞鸟佞綕곫劍遤⚌㛇侨♴꣭䞔ⲃ♴剣䨾佖㊤ •4ծ귬껏Q3⾓⸂➠㣐鿈ⴔず䏅䏀鿈鷶幯烁雩 •4.1ծ絑蠒邍梡遤⚌⾓⸂➠⨊㣐♶ⴔ귬⟱⽀䏅䏀鿈鷶幯烁雩 •4.2ծ餒⸉邍梡絑蠒餏勳勍⚌絫畮邍梡➠䓳✵佐Ⰶ畮 Q䚪4錢⡛㛇⠅侨ꢀ♴〳佖䭯㊤絯瑟䚍ꢂ䔂⿺⚡Ⱒ肅岤α 4 3Q24假康/ꂊ䏅/귬껏/⯝玘蠒⚌佐Ⰶず嫱+7.6%/-1.2%/-5.9%/-21.5%䩾ꬋ䧴絑靈侮ⲙⵄⴔⵆず嫱-14.9%/-15.3%/-31.0%/-52.5%կ 兞孞䏞」⻊♳ⴀ遤Ꝇぐ匣㗌鳅⚹湱⡃Q1~3㛇侨鷶㷍䏞♳⼮ծ〜⸈鿈ⴔ匣㗌⣘絛ꆀず嫱♳⼮䞔ⲃ♴㟞鸟佞綕կ 匣㗌䱗䎸♳絩絯ッ梡假康>ꂊ䏅>귬껏>⯝玘胜た暵䖄⠅ꢀ㥩✵㉁⸉假康㥩✵ꂊ䏅ծ⡛곸㥩✵넞곸⨊䒗㖑涸ꂊ假㥩✵⨊劥㖑涸귬껏ծ⴮꨽㥩✵〳鷥⴮䚍涸兞⼓꡶牰ꂊ䏅㥩✵⯝玘餝暟♲㣐暵䖄կ 20% 10% 0% Ja24 -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% Q3嵳⽂猌䀙⯝玘嶊餩➠㢅✵ず嫱♴徾朐䙖 免税购物金额YOY免税购物人次YOY Feb-24 Mar-24 Ap-24 May-24 Ju24 Jul-4 Aug-24 Sep-24 n- r n- 2 客单价YOY 餴涸俱Ⱆ勻぀彂㖈㟞嵳鸟〡雦嵳皾Ⱒ傞罌贊wi〳nd嫱✮ぐ⟄Ⱆⶂ぀ꤑ餒䫣告絟㕂㼆ꆄ⧩霆雦ⵚ皾灇务瑕劢䨾ⶂꤑ岤13㔔⯝⚌玘絫匣〄㗌䋒呋傞劥ꢂ⚡⾲肅㔔➑⺫劥䭍䫣务デ㕂呋务劥⯝Ⱆ぀Ⱖ➑➭⺫匣䭍㗌A肅呋Ⱆ劥぀⚡肅2錛た鿈俒ⴔ霫2絈01ⰻ9䎃㺂偽侨た研ずⰖկ䋒 5 넞㛇侨♴ⴀ遤Ꝇ嶊餩3Q24⚌絫㟞鸟梠嫱佞綕 单位：亿元 3Q24 1Q24 营业收入 同比增速2Q24 3Q24 VS19年增速3Q24 3Q241Q24 归母净利润 同比增速2Q24 3Q24 VS19年增速3Q24 扣非/经调整归母净利润 同比增速VS19年增速 3Q241Q242Q243Q243Q24 旅游 103.9 46.7% 18.0% 7.6% -38.2% 21.2 96 .8% 10.9% 11.6% -30.5% 13.2 10 9.1% -13.3% -14.9% -19.2% 旅行社 36.4 201.8% 75. 8% 32.2% -58.8% 1.5扭亏 扭亏 扭亏 -32.4% 0.68扭亏 扭亏 138 .3% -66.3% 人工景区 42.0 29.6% 1.6% -0.2% -24.3% 12.2 325.1% 6.2% 15.5% -40.5% 5.1 446.2% -36.3% -22.0% -32.1% 自然景区 25.5 1.9% 1.8% -5.4% 4.6% 7.6 -25.4% -10.3% -14.5% -3.9% 7.4 -30.5% -11.8% -14.5% 9.1% 餐饮 39.8 11.5% 0.3% -1.2% -25.1% 5.1 -8.0% -51.0% -14.4% 18.3% 4.77 8.4% -63.4% -15.3% 18.2% 酒店 68.6 11.7% -4.3% -5.9% -5.9% 6.1 55.1% 47.3% -28.8% -3.3% 5.66 34.4% 16.6% -31.0% -28.3% 免税 117.6 -9.4% -17.4% -21.5% 4.6% 6.4 0.2% -37.6% 0.0% -30.6% 6.35 0.2% -39.8% -52.5% -30.8% 假遤康爢「渤㕂ⴀⰻ㞯ⴀ遤㔙➃ꢭ妃康䲿㟞鸟곭⯓假 8 Q3假康➃妃⸈䘯㟞Ɤ⡤梡⠅ꢀ䭯絯䚍䔂կ⵸♲㷍䏞㕂ⰻⴀ康➃妃42.9➉ ➃妃/+16.8%Ⱖ务Q114.19➉➃妃/+16.7%Q213.06➉➃妃/+11.8% 3Q24㕂ⰻ假康➃妃ծ佐Ⰶⴔⵆ⚹19䎃涸103%ծ101% 旅游收入（%2019）旅游人次（%2019） Q315.7➉➃妃/+21.3%㕂ⰻ康㹐ⴀ康䚪蔄餩4.32♰➉⯋/+17.1%Q1 1.52♰➉/+17.0%Q21.21♰➉/+21.0%Q31.59♰➉/+14.4%կ 㕂䎧㹐崨珘姿㟞ꟋկⰌ㕂㕂ⰻ假康ⴀ康7.65➉➃妃䭽〳嫱〡䖈ず嫱 +5.9%鳅19䎃ず劍+10.2%㕂ⰻ康㹐ⴀ康䚪蔄餩7008.17➉⯋䭽〳嫱〡䖈ず嫱+6.3%鳅2019䎃ず劍+7.9%ꥧゎ㹐⽀⟟916⯋䭽〳嫱〡䖈ず嫱 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 +0.4%鳅19䎃ず劍-2.1%կ 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 客单价（%2019） 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2020年 餴俱勻彂俒假鿈㕂ꆄ霆ⵚ灇瑕䨾 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 9 24䎃蒜⧺傈假康➃妃䭯絯㟞Ɤ㹐⽀⟟䛪㢕䏞剣䨾♴꣭ 春节 清明 五一端午国庆春节清明五一端午中秋国庆春节清明五一端午中秋国庆元旦春节清明五一端午 中秋国庆 元旦春节清明五一端午中秋国庆 国内出游人次（%2019）国内旅游收入（%2019）客单价（%2019） 假遤爢넞㟞⚺㔔⡛㛇侨♴ⴀ㞯㔙ꢭ康꨽宠ず嫱僈儑佖㊤♸19䎃ず劍湱嫱佐Ⰶծ⚌絫㖲➠剣鳅㣐⥝㢕瑟ꢂկ 荈搬兞⼓넞㛇侨+匧畮㣔孞䕧ㆇ⚌絫㟞Ɤ䔲务Ɤ涯㿋鼙冖傢㷍劼㖞ծ넞꜈瘝❜鸑佖㊤ծ♲暵程麤ⵄ嶹桧䲿⼮邍梡湱㼆곭⯓կ 假康遤⚌3Q24佐Ⰶ&⚌絫䞔ⲃ假遤爢>➃䊨兞⼓>荈搬兞⼓ 单位：亿元 营业收入同比增速 VS19年增速 归母净利润同比增速 VS19年增速 扣非/经调整归母净利润同比增速 VS19年增速 3Q24 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 3Q24 3Q24 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 3Q24 3Q24 1Q242Q24 3Q243Q24 旅游 103.9 46.7% 18.0% 7.6% -38.2% 21.2 96.8% 10.9% 11.6% -30.5% 13.2 109.1%-13.3% -14.9%-19.2% 旅行社 众信旅游岭南控股ST凯撒人工景区云南旅游大连圣亚中青旅宋城演艺曲江文旅自然景区长白山三特索道丽江股份黄山旅游九华旅游西域旅游张家界西藏旅游峨眉山A桂林旅游天目湖 36.4201.8%75.8%32.2%-58.8% 21.1643.4%143.3%67.1%-45.2% 13.489.0%32.4%8.9%-45.9% 1.9109.5%5.9%-26.8%-92.5% 42.029.6%1.6%-0.2%-24.3% 1.520.4%26.1%16.0%-74.8% 2.331.8%-3.0%5.6%56.2% 27.016.0%-3.7%5.5%-27.0% 8.4138.7%22.1%-4.7%6.0% 2.922.7%2.1%-32.0%-13.1% 25.51.9%1.8%-5.4%4.6% 3.483.7%29.0%3.2%32.7% 2.4-11.4%-5.7%1.1%1.1% 2.50.0%-3.5%0.6%4.5% 5.8-0.4%-0.4%-3.3%13.2% 1.7-6.1%14.2%-4.1%37.0% 1.744.4%4.4%-4.3%12.0% 1.4-8.5%0.3%-7.8%-11.7% 0.8-9.8%5.4%-7.9%2.5% 3.06.6%0.3%-9.9%-13.5% 1.53.2%-2.3%-14.4%-16.5% 1.4-11.3%-3.7%-26.3%-15.5% 1.5扭亏扭亏扭亏-32.4% 0.5扭亏1369.3%6.3%1034.8% 1.0176.9%-15.7%218.6%65.7% -0.01减亏0.28亿减亏0.73亿减亏1.17亿-100.8% 12.2325.1%6.2%15.5%-40.5% 1.4增亏0.11亿减亏0.17亿扭亏115.6% 1.1-30.6%-36.5%-4.5%44.0% 1.5增亏0.24亿-31.8%-25.8%-71.9% 10.1317.3%81.8%28.0%-20.6% -1.8-76.8%-1548.3%-390.1%-276.4% 7.6-25.4%-10.3%-14.5%-3.9% 1.3扭亏-37.0%-9.0%20.0% 0.817.7%91.8%-4.6%43.3% 0.81.1%-14.2%-11.9%-7.8% 1.5-60.5%-21.5%-26.4%-8.7% 0.4-15.8%25.7%-2.8%47.6% 0.9减亏0.01亿-5.4%-8.6%7.3% -0.04增亏0.16亿增亏0.04亿增亏0.02亿-111.3% 0.