2024年商业银行主要趋势报告-连接当前挑战与未来趋势
AI智能总结Commercial Banking Top Trends for 2024
Introduction
- Optimizing for Today, Investing for Tomorrow: Banks are navigating macroeconomic uncertainties while focusing on AI and emerging technologies to drive growth and profitability.
- Current Challenges: Higher interest rates and resilient consumer spending in 2023 improved business lending and profitability, but 2024 is expected to be very different. Operational and regulatory concerns are prominent.
- Regulatory Environment: Intensive new regulatory measures following high-profile banking failures are adding to the cost burden.
Key Trends
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From Tactical Cost Takeout to Strategic Cost Transformation
- Improvements in Cost-to-Income Ratio (CIR): Commercial banks reduced CIR from 50.1% in H1 2022 to 46.4% in H1 2023, driven by topline improvements.
- Future Outlook: Banks are planning to maintain or improve CIR despite expected increases in IT costs and potential cuts in interest rates.
- Strategic Focus: Long-term programs are needed to optimize costs across technology, human resources, controls, and third-party expenditure.
- IT Spending: IT budgets are expected to increase by 5.6% in 2024 and grow at a compounded annual growth rate of 4.6% through 2028.
- Hyperautomation: Leading banks are exploring hyperautomation to improve operational efficiency and free up resources for strategic initiatives.
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Generative AI in Commercial Banking
- Transformational Potential: Generative AI is seen as a game-changer, offering solutions to pressing challenges and driving innovation.
- Impact on Talent: It raises questions about the future of talent and workforce structure.
- Technology Disruption: AI is redefining workflows and human-machine collaboration.
- Opportunities: Banks are exploring ways to scale generative AI to enhance productivity, improve credit decisions, and engage with small business customers.
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New Technologies and Value-Added Services
- Commercial Payments Wakeup Call: Banks are being encouraged to adopt new technologies to stay competitive.
- Automated, Data-Powered Lending: Automated lending processes powered by data are becoming more prevalent.
- Generative AI in Commercial Banking: Banks are leveraging generative AI to develop new value-added services.
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Operational Excellence and Regulatory Compliance
- Operational Efficiency: Banks are focusing on operational excellence in areas like cost transformation, deposits, and regulatory compliance.
- Regulatory Compliance: New regulations are shifting capital allocation and increasing the need for robust data strategies.
- Risk Management: Banks must comply with more stringent regulations and risk management requirements, which will add to operational costs.
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Economic Uncertainty and Market Trends
- Global GDP Growth: Expected to decelerate from 2.7% in 2023 to 2.4% in 2024.
- Macroeconomic Uncertainties: Banks are preparing for economic uncertainty and striving for operational excellence.
- Asset Quality: Non-performing loans are rising in the SMB sector, particularly in Europe, as consumer spending dries up.
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Emerging Opportunities and Challenges
- Converging Trends: Six converging trends are expected to shape the commercial banking sector in 2024.
- Innovation and Creativity: Banks are exploring new technologies and services to stay ahead.
- Investment and Adaptation: High-performing banks are optimizing operations today while investing for the future.
Conclusion
- Key Takeaways: Banks must balance short-term cost management with long-term strategic investments in technology and innovation to navigate the complex landscape of 2024 and beyond.
