Oil Market Report - March 2017
AI智能总结Highlights
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Global Oil Product Demand Growth:
- In 2016, global oil product demand grew by 1.6 million barrels per day (mb/d).
- For 2017, it is expected to ease back to 1.4 mb/d.
- Early indicators from Q1 2017 show a slowdown in demand in Japan, Germany, Korea, and India.
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Global Oil Supplies:
- Global oil supplies increased by 260 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) in February.
- World oil production was 170 kb/d below the same period last year.
- OPEC's oil production decreased for the second consecutive month.
- Non-OPEC oil production is expected to rise by 0.4 mb/d in 2017 to 58.1 mb/d.
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OPEC Crude Output:
- OPEC crude output rose by 170 kb/d in February to 32 mb/d.
- Compliance with the supply cut was 91% for the month.
- Saudi Arabia increased its output by 180 kb/d month-on-month but remained below its agreed target.
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OECD Commercial Inventories:
- OECD commercial inventories rose by 48 million barrels (mb) in January, or 1.5 mb/d, to 3,030 mb.
- This was supported by near-record US crude stocks and gains in Europe.
- Preliminary data show a modest draw of 5 mb in February despite further builds in US crude.
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Benchmark Crude Prices:
- Benchmark crude prices moved within a tight range of $55-56 per barrel (bbl) in February.
- Prices fell more than $3/bbl on March 8-9.
- Sour crude Dubai maintained gains against Brent in recent months.
- Middle distillates and gasoline prices rose in most regions.
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Refinery Throughput:
- Refinery throughput growth recovered to 0.9 mb/d year-over-year (y-o-y) in 4Q 2016.
- It is expected to slow down to a 0.6 mb/d increase in 1Q 2017.
- This will surge by 1.9 mb/d in 2Q 2017.
- This reflects a recovery from unusually low levels in 2Q 2016, with implied refined product stock drawdowns supporting higher throughput.
Summary
The report highlights the expected easing of global oil product demand growth to 1.4 mb/d in 2017 after a 1.6 mb/d increase in 2016. Global oil supplies rose by 260 kb/d in February, with OPEC's production declining for the second consecutive month. OPEC's compliance with supply cuts was 91% in February, while non-OPEC oil production is projected to rise slightly. OECD commercial inventories increased in January, supported by US crude stocks and European gains. Benchmark crude prices fluctuated in February and fell sharply in early March. Refinery throughput growth is expected to recover and then increase significantly in the second quarter of 2017.
