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Oil Market Report - January 2017

信息技术2017-01-19IEA王***

AI智能总结

Global Demand Outlook: The global demand outlook for 2016 has been raised following robust preliminary fourth quarter (4Q) 2016 numbers. Colder weather in northern Europe and rapid industrially-driven Asian growth contributed to this increase.
2016 Demand Growth: Global oil demand growth for 2016 is now expected to be 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d), slowing to 1.3 mb/d in 2017 as product prices potentially rise.

December Supply: Global oil supplies fell by more than 0.6 mb/d in December, dropping to 97.6 mb/d due to lower output from OPEC and non-OPEC countries.
2016 Supply: World supply increased by 0.3 mb/d from the previous year, driven by record OPEC output but offset by a 0.9 mb/d decline in non-OPEC supply.
OPEC Supply: OPEC crude production (excluding Indonesia) fell from record levels to 33.09 mb/d in December, influenced by lower Saudi output and disruptions in Nigeria.
Non-OPEC Supply: Non-OPEC supplies are forecast to grow by 385 kb/d in 2017, spurred by higher prices and anticipated coordinated supply cuts. This is underpinned by a 320 kb/d gain in total US output.

OECD Stocks: OECD industry stocks fell in November, marking a fourth consecutive monthly decline. Preliminary data for December show stocks are 82 million barrels (mb) below July's historical peak, though still above the symbolic 3,000 mb level.
Refined Product Stocks: There was a 4Q16 build in the OECD, with the overhang in non-OECD implied refined product inventories persisting.

Oil Prices: Oil prices rose in early December and remained within a $53-57 per barrel (bbl) range thereafter.
Dubai Crude: Dubai crude strengthened against other benchmarks due to lower expected OPEC output, opening the arbitrage window for Brent and WTI-linked crudes.
Fuel Oil: Fuel oil was a strong performer due to supply shortages.

Crude Throughput: Higher estimates for 4Q16 global refinery crude throughput (up by 160 kb/d) led to a 260 kb/d downward revision for 1Q17.
Refined Product Stocks: Analysis of refined product stock movements indicates a 4Q16 build in the OECD, with the overhang in non-OECD persisting.