Highlights
Forecast for Global Demand Growth
- 2017: 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) or 1.6%
- 2018: 1.3 mb/d or 1.3%
Revisions and Adjustments
- Data revised for Nigeria, Germany, and Iraq
- Baseline for oil demand raised by approximately 0.2 mb/d
Global Oil Supply
- November 2017: 97.8 mb/d, highest in a year
- Increase of 0.2 mb/d from October
- US production rise contributed to the increase
- Year-over-year decrease of 1.1 mb/d due to record rates from Russia and Middle East OPEC producers
- Non-OPEC supply expected to rise by 0.6 mb/d in 2017 and 1.6 mb/d in 2018
OPEC Crude Supply
- November 2017: 32.36 mb/d, down 1.3 mb/d from a year ago
- Continuous decline for the fourth month
- Lower output in Saudi Arabia, Angola, and Venezuela
- Compliance with agreed cuts rose to 115%, the highest this year
- Average compliance for 2017 at 91%
OECD Commercial Stocks
- October 2017: Fell 40.3 million barrels (mb)
- Lowest level since July 2015
- Now 111 mb above the five-year average
- Chinese crude stocks likely fell for the first time in a year
- Mixed picture observed in preliminary global stocks data for November
Benchmark Crude Prices
- November 2017: Rose by $4-5 per barrel (bbl)
- Highest level in over two years in early December
- Factors: Extension of OPEC/non-OPEC output cuts and closure of the Forties pipeline system
Global Refinery Throughput
- Third quarter 2017: Record high at 81.2 mb/d
- Impact of Hurricane Harvey included
- Declined in fourth quarter 2017 due to maintenance
- Global margins declined in November, losing almost $1/bbl
This summary provides an overview of key points related to global oil demand, supply, stocks, prices, and refining activities as of December 14, 2017.
