-
Oil Demand Growth: The estimate for 2018 oil demand growth remains at 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d). For 2019, the projection remains unchanged at 1.4 mb/d.
-
Supply: Global oil supply fell by 360,000 barrels per day (kb/d) month-on-month in November to 101.1 million barrels per day (mb/d), due to reduced output in the North Sea, Canada, and Russia. Non-OPEC production growth for 2019 is projected to be 1.5 mb/d, down from 2.4 mb/d in 2018.
-
OPEC Output: OPEC crude oil output increased by 100,000 barrels per day (kb/d) month-on-month in November to 33.03 million barrels per day (mb/d), driven by record highs in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The group agreed to cut output by 0.8 mb/d starting from January.
-
Refining Throughput: Global refining throughput growth halted in the fourth quarter (4Q18), with gains in the US, Middle East, and China barely offsetting losses in Latin America and Europe. Crude prices improved margins, but the US Gulf Coast lagged behind due to its focus on gasoline.
-
OECD Stocks: OECD commercial stocks rose by 5.7 million barrels (mb) in October, reaching 2,872 mb, above the five-year average for the first time since March. NGL and feedstock inventories hit historic highs, while fuel oil stocks fell to a record low.
-
Oil Prices: Oil prices stabilized around $60 per barrel (bbl) after falling by 30% since early October. Weak demand affected gasoline and naphtha markets, while freight rates soared to multi-year highs.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that the global oil market faces both challenges and opportunities. Despite a slowdown in non-OECD demand due to higher prices, OECD demand remains steady. OPEC and some non-OPEC oil ministers agreed to cut output by 1.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) to address market surpluses, aiming for stability and balance. Refining throughput growth has halted, and OECD stocks have risen, while non-OECD regions experienced mixed results. Oil prices stabilized near $60 per barrel, though volatility persists.
