巴西气候变化：主要脆弱性和机遇（英）2024

Changing Climate in Brazil: Key Vulnerabilities and Opportunities

Introduction

Brazil's economy faces significant challenges due to climate change, primarily impacting agriculture and hydropower generation. The country experiences rising temperatures and increased variability, exacerbating extreme weather events such as floods and droughts. These events not only lead to substantial physical and human capital losses but also cause disruptions in infrastructure and fiscal costs, potentially resulting in long-term productivity and output impacts.

Key Vulnerabilities

Agriculture: Extreme weather events, including floods and droughts, significantly affect agricultural productivity and trade, posing a threat to food security. Hydropower Generation: The reliability of hydropower generation is jeopardized by changes in precipitation patterns, impacting electricity supply and demand dynamics. Financial Sector: Increased risks from climate-related events can lead to higher insurance costs, financial losses, and instability in the banking sector.

Policy Options

Boosting Amazon’s Resilience: Implement fiscal incentives for forest conservation and restoration to enhance the Amazon’s ability to withstand climate shocks. Investing in Climate-Smart Agriculture: Promote sustainable farming practices, develop insurance mechanisms tailored to agricultural needs, and invest in climate-resilient crops. Diversifying Power Generation Sources: Expand renewable energy sources beyond hydropower, including solar, wind, and bioenergy, to ensure energy security and reduce dependency on water resources. Leveraging Opportunities for Green Growth: Stimulate green industries, improve energy efficiency, and foster innovation in sustainable technologies.

Conclusion

Brazil possesses unique opportunities to transition towards a green economy, leveraging its natural resources and existing infrastructure. By addressing key vulnerabilities and implementing strategic policies, the country can mitigate the impacts of climate change while fostering sustainable economic growth.

References

• BCB (2023a): [Description of source]
• BCZ (2023b): [Description of source]
• World Bank CCDR (2023): [Description of source]

Annexes

• Design Issues for Feebates to Promote Forest Carbon Storage: Guidelines and considerations for implementing fee-based incentives for forest conservation.
• Cost Effective Mitigation Potential: Analysis of potential cost-effective mitigation strategies across different sectors.
• Brazil’s Global Market Share in Selected Green Industries: Overview of Brazil's position in key green sectors globally.

Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: Illustration of commodity price differentials and past drought scenarios.
• Figure 2: Representation of rural insurance schemes and their role in managing drought risks.
• Figure 3: Analysis of the electricity mix and the impact of climate change on hydropower generation.
• Table 1: Commitments for large deforestation emitters in terms of mitigation efforts.