2024年下半年投资展望（英）

WSGlobalChiefInvestmentOffice 21June2024 GlobalMarketOutlook Adaptingtoshiftingwinds Thestartofmajorcentralbankratecutsmarksakeyturningpointforinvestorsaspolicymakersswitchtheirfocustowardssupportinggrowth. Weseeitasagoodtimetoadapttotheseshiftingwindsby(i)stayingOverweightequitiesoverbondsandcash,(ii)favouringUSequitiesgloballyandIndianequitiesinAsiaand(iii)owninggoldandEMUSDbondsasdiversifiers. Inthisenvironment,balancedfoundationallocationscomprisingequities,bondsandalternativeassetsarelikelytooutperformallocationsthataresolelyaimedatgeneratingincome. OuropportunisticallocationscontinuetofavourgrowthsectorsintheUS,abarbell-likestrategyinEuropeandselectgovernmentpolicybeneficiariesin China. Howtocraftadiversifiedportfolioforthelong-term? IstheUSeconomystillheadedforasoft-landing? Whatisthemessagefromyourquantitativemodels? ImportantdisclosurescanbefoundintheDisclosuresAppendix. 01 02 03 04 05 Contents Strategy Investmentstrategyandkeythemes02 Foundationassetallocationmodels05 Foundation:Ourtacticalassetallocationviews06 Foundation:Multi-assetincomestrategies07 Perspectivesonkeyclientquestions09 Macrooverview-ataglance Ourmacroeconomicoutlookandkeyquestions11 AssetClasses Bonds13 Equity15 Equityopportunisticviews17 FX18 Gold,crudeoil20 Additionalperspectives Quantperspective21 Today,TomorrowandForever23 PerformanceReview Foundation:Assetallocationsummary25 Foundation+:Assetallocationsummary26 Marketperformancesummary27 Ourkeyforecastsandcalendarevents28 FormoreCIOOfficeinsights29 Explanatorynotes30 Investmentstrategyandkeythemes SteveBriceManpreetGillRaymondCheng GlobalChiefInvestmentOfficerChiefInvestmentOfficer,ChiefInvestmentOfficer,NorthAsia AMEE OurtoppreferencesFoundationAllocations OWGlobalequities Inequities:US Inbonds:EMUSDbonds OpportunisticAllocations EquityBUYideas UStechnologysector UScomms.servicessectorIndialargecapequities Chinanon-financialdiviSOEsTaiwanequities Japanesebanks BondBUYideas USinflation-protectedbondsEuropegovt.bonds(FX-hedged)INRlocalcurrencybonds USAgencyMBS FXviews BullishbiasonUSD Adaptingtoshiftingwinds Thestartofmajorcentralbankratecutsmarksakeyturningpointforinvestorsaspolicymakersswitchtheirfocustowardssupportinggrowth.Weseeitasagoodtimetoadapttotheseshiftingwindsby(i)stayingOverweightequitiesoverbondsandcash,(ii)favouringUSequitiesgloballyandIndianequitiesinAsiaand(iii)owninggoldandEmergingMarket(EM)USDbondsasdiversifiers. Inthisenvironment,balancedfoundationallocationscomprisingequities,bondsandalternativeassetsarelikelytooutperformallocationsthataresolelyaimedatgeneratingincome. OuropportunisticallocationscontinuetofavourgrowthsectorsintheUS,abarbell-likestrategyinEuropeandselectgovernmentpolicybeneficiariesinChina. Investmentstrategiesinthefaceofshiftingwinds Our2024Strategyof‘SailingwiththeWind’hasperformedwellonthebackofastrongequitymarketrally.OurBalancedallocationhasrisen6.7%year-to-date,outperformingincome-orientedstrategies. AsweapproachapotentialinflectionpointintheformofcentralbankratecutsandtheUSelection,webelieveitistimeforinvestorsto‘AdapttoShiftingWinds’.Weexpect:(i)equitiestooutperformbondsandcash,anoutcomelikelytoresultinbalancedstrategiesoutperformingincomestrategies;(ii)USandIndianequitiestooutperformglobalandAsianmarkets,respectively;and(iii)goldandEMbondstoofferdiversifiedsourcesofreturn. Policyinflectionpointakeypositiveforequities Majorcentralbankratecuts,whichstartedinQ2,arelikelytoextendintothesecondhalfoftheyear.Europeistheforerunneralongthispath.ThecentralbanksofSwedenandSwitzerlandandtheEuropeanCentralBankhavealreadycutratesasgrowthandinflationslow.WebelievetheFedhasroomtofollowsuit,albeitlaterinH2,asslowingrentsandsofteninglabourmarketsdriveinflationlower. Fig.1HighUSandIndianequitymarketvaluationsFig.2BondyieldshavehistoricallyfallennearoraheadarguablyjustifiedbyhighreturnonequityofFedratecuts 12mforwardPrice/Bookvs.returnonequity10yrUSgovt.bondyieldvs.Fedpolicyrate Source:FactSet,StandardChartered Formarkets,thispolicyshiftissignificantasitcreatestheconditionsforoursoft-landingviewtopanout.Pre-emptiveratecutsthathelpavoidasharp,recessionaryslowingofeconomicgrowtharelikelytosupportanextendedearningsgrowthcycle.TheseconditionsshouldresultinequitiescontinuingtooutperformbondsandcashinH224. USandIndianequitiestolead Regionally,webelieveUSequitiesofferastrongcaseforcontinuedoutperformancerelativetoothermajorequitymarketsinH2.USearningsremainacornerstoneofourview –12-monthexpectedearningsgrowthremainsrobustandhasbeenrevisedhighersincethestartoftheyear.Moresignificantly,theseexpectationsshowgainsbroadeningbeyondthe‘Magnificent7’stocksbyyear-end. USvaluationsareundoubtedlyhighandhavebeenonekeypushbackagainstourpositiveview.However,webelievethesearejustifiedbyahighreturnonequity(ROE).Inourview,thissuggestsvaluationsareunlikelytobeabarriertofurthergainsinanenvironmentwheremarketsremainfocusedongrowthassetsamidlikelyupcomingFedratecuts. After14.8%gainsYTD,though,wewouldbalanceourpositiveviewgiventhatfurthergainsareunlikelytooccurinastraight