聚烯烃周报：下游需求淡季，社会库存走高

研究院化工组 策略摘要 研究员 中性：聚烯烃存量装置检修力度逐步减弱，叠加独山子石化、榆林化工、镇海炼化等装置开车，聚烯烃预计未来供应端压力逐步回归。原油价格高位，聚烯烃各原料生产成本整体均处相对高位，成本端支撑仍存。下游维持淡季，农膜开工缓慢提升，包装膜开工环比持平，塑编、BOPP开工环比走低，下游订单偏弱，刚需采购为主。社会库存小幅累库，预计聚烯烃市场维持区间整理。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 石化库存77万吨，较上周累库3.5万吨。 联系人 基差方面，LL华东基差+30元/吨，PP华东基差-40元/吨。 杨露露0755-82790795yanglulu@htfc.com从业资格号：F03128371 生产利润及国内开工方面，原油价格小幅调整，成本支撑走弱。PE开工率81.8%（-0.4%），PP开工率82.1%（-0.4%）。 进出口方面，PP出口窗口与LL进口窗口盈亏平衡附近。 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com从业资格号：F03119179 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜厂开工率18%（+1%），包装膜开工率53%（0）；PP下游塑编开工率39%（-1%），BOPP开工率58%（0），注塑开工率42%（-2%）。农膜开工缓慢提升，包装膜开工环比持平，塑编、BOPP开工环比走低，下游订单偏弱。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 ■策略 建议暂观望。 ■风险 原油价格大幅波动，需求恢复不及预期。 目录 聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃检修计划................................................................................................................................................................................5聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................9聚烯烃进出口利润...........................................................................................................................................................................11聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................13聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................14 图表 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................4图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................4图3:中国PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................................5图4:中国油制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图5:中国煤制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图6:中国烷烃制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...............................................................................................................5图7:中国PP检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................................5图8:中国油制PP检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图9:中国煤制PP月度检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................6图10:中国PDH制PP月度检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................6图11:聚烯烃周度开工预估|单位：%............................................................................................................................................6图12:PE开工率分工艺|单位：%...................................................................................................................................................7图13:PE开工率分品种|单位：%...................................................................................................................................................7图14:PP开工率分工艺|单位：%....................................................................................................................................................8图15:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................8图16:PE开工率|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................................8图17:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................9图18:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................9图19:PP开工率|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................................9图20:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨......................................................