2024年的债务世界：全球繁荣的日益沉重的负担（摘要）（英）

UNITEDNATIONSCONFERENCEONTRADEANDDEVELOPMENT Aworldofdebt REPORT2024 toglobalprosperity Agrowingburden Contents 1 Globalpublicdebtkeepsrising. 2 Thecostofexternalpublicdebtremainshigh. 3 Peoplepaytheprice. 4 Acallforactiontofinance sustainabledevelopment. 2 Globalpublicdebtkeepsrising. 3 Publicdebtreachesrecordlevelsin2023 97000000000000 $97 trillion US$ 100 Globalpublicdebt 75 $51 trillio5n0 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Source:UNGCRG-technicalteamcalculationsbasedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlook(April2024). Note:FiguresrepresentnominalvaluesincurrentUS$.Publicdebtreferstogeneralgovernmentdomesticandexternaldebtthroughoutthedocument.Generalgovernmentconsistsofcentral,stateandlocalgovernmentsandthesocialsecurityfundscontrolledbytheseunits. 4 Publicdebtgrowstwiceasfastindevelopingcountries Index:Outstandingpublicdebtin2010=100 350 Developingcountries 300 250 200 150 Developingcountriesexcl.China Developedcountries 100 2010201220142016201820202022 Source:UNGCRG-technicalteamcalculationsbasedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlook(April2024). 5 Almostathirdofglobalpublicdebtisowedbydevelopingcountries PublicdebtinUS$billions(2023) Developedcountries Developingregions AsiaandOceania LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean Africa France 3354 Germany 2855 UnitedStatesofAmerica 33417 Egypt 378 Mexico 950 Brazil 1841 Japan 10632 China 14773 India 2956 Source:UNGCRG-technicalteamcalculationsbasedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlook(April2024). 6 Althoughpublicdebtisgrowinginallregions,onlyinAfricaitisgrowingfasterthanGDP PublicdebtasashareofGDP-Medianpercountrygroup(percentage) Developingcountries AfricaAsia andOceania LatinAmerica andtheCaribbean 80 60 40 20 0 20102023201020232010202320102023 Source:UNGCRG-technicalteamcalculationsbasedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlook(April2024). Note:Themedianrepresentsthevaluethatliesatthemidpointofthedatadistribution. 7 Morecountriesfacehighdebtburdens,especiallyinAfrica Numberofdevelopingcountrieswithpublicdebtexceeding60%ofGDP 80 60 LatinAmerica andtheCaribbean 40 AsiaandOceania 20 Africa 2010201220142016201820202022 Source:UNGCRG-technicalteamcalculationsbasedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlook(April2024). 8 Thecostofexternalpublicdebtremainshigh. 9 Developingcountries’externalpublicdebtindicatorsreturnedtopre-COVIDlevels Medianfordevelopingcountries(percentage) 140 120 100 80 92.4 71.5 60 Externalpublicdebt asashareofexports 2019.2 28.4 40 0 2010201220142016201820202022 Externalpublicdebt asashareofGDP Source:UNGCRG-technicalteamcalculationsbasedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlook(April2024).Note:ExternalpublicdebtreferstoexternalPublicandPubliclyGuaranteed(PPG)debt.Themedianrepresentsthevaluethatliesatthemidpointofthedatadistribution. 10 Yet,externaldebtserviceburdensremainhigh Medianfordevelopingcountries(percentage) 10 8 8.8 6 6.3 4 5 3.8 Externalpublicdebtservicerelativetogovernmentrevenues Externalpublicdebtservice relativetoexports 2 0 2010201220142016201820202022 Source:UNGCRG-technicalteamcalculationsbasedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlook(April2024).Note:ExternalpublicdebtreferstoexternalPublicandPubliclyGuaranteed(PPG)debt.Themedianrepresentsthevaluethatliesatthemidpointofthedatadistribution. 11 Anotefromhistory Halfofdevelopingcountriesareallocatingatleast6.3%oftheirexportrevenuestoexternalpublicdebtservice. Forcomparison,the1953LondonAgreementonGermany’swardebtlimitedtheamount ofexportrevenuesthatcouldbespenton externaldebtservicing(publicandprivate)to5%toavoidunderminingtherecovery. 12 Thecreditorbasemakesdebtexpensiveanddifficulttorestructure Externalpublicdebt,sharebytypeofcreditor(2022) PrivatecreditorsMultilateralcreditorsBilateralcreditors Developingcountries Africa 23% 34% 44% 26% 14% 61% AsiaandOceania 15% 23% 23% 61% LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean 73% Source:UNGCRG-technicalteam,basedoncalculationsbasedonWorldBankInternationalDebtReport2023. Note:ExternalpublicdebtreferstoexternalPublicandPubliclyGuaranteed(PPG)debt. 13 PrivatecreditorwithdrawalcausesnearlyUS$50billioninoutflows Developingcountries’nettransfersonexternalpublicdebtbytypeofcreditorinUS$billion 100 Totalnetresourcetransfer Private Bilateral Multilateral 200 −100 20102022 20102022 20102022 20102022 Source:UNGCRG-technicalteamcalculations,basedonWorldBankInternationalDebtReport2023.Note:Nettransfersaredefinedasdisbursementsminusdebtserviceonexternalpublicandpubliclyguaranteeddebt. 14 Developingcountrieswithnetdebtoutflowsmorethandoubledsince2014 Numberofdevelopingcountrieswithnetnegativetransfersonexternalpublicdebt 50LatinAmericaandthe Caribbean 40 30AsiaandOceania 20 10Africa 201020152020 Source:UNGCRG-technicalteamcalculations,basedonWorldBankInternationalDebtReport2023.Note:Nettransfersaredefinedasdisbursementsminusdebtserviceonexternalpublicandpubliclyguaranteeddebt. 15 Borrowingcostsofdevelopingcountriesarehigherthanthoseofdevelopedones Bondyieldsofdevelopinganddevelopedcountries(2020-2024) 5.3 6.8 Asia and LatinAmerica andthe Africa 9.8 2.5 0.8 Germany USA Oceania Caribbean Source:UNGCRG-technicalteamcalcula