2023年12月新加坡和区域建筑市场最新动态报告

CONSTRUCTIONMARKETUPDATE RIDERLEVETTBUCKNALLSINGAPOREANDREGIONALREPORT DECEMBER2023 2023 H2 Introduction1 Highlights2 Markets Singapore5 Cambodia7 Indonesia9 Malaysia11 Vietnam13 Philippines15 Japan17 CommodityPriceTrends20 CurrencyExchangeRates20 ConstructionPricesintheRegion21 ProfessionalServices23 OurOffices24 GeneralMarket Thesecondhalfof2023wascharacterisedbystickycoreinflationandcommoditypricespikesfromfreshandprolongedgeopoliticalshocks,withglobalgrowthexpectedtocomeinat3.0%,slowingfromthe3.5%growthintheprecedingyear. TheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)notedthatwhileinflationcontinuetodeclineworldwide,itremained“toohigh”atanannualaverageof6.9%in2023from8.7%in2022.Coreinflation,excludingfoodandenergy,isexpectedtodropmoregraduallyfrom6.4%in2022to6.3%in2023.Atthesametime,theIMFcautionedagainstprematureeasingofinterestratesbycentralbanks. Globalforecastfor2024hasbeencutto2.9%from3.0%asdownsiderisksoutweightheupsiderisks.Volatilecommodityprices,geopoliticalfragmentationandChina’spropertycrisisremainofhighconcernevenasforecastgenerallypointtoasoftlandingin2024. ConstructionIndustry Theglobalconstructionindustryisnotsparedfromtherisksassociatedwithhighinflationrates,includingsubduedprojectcommencementsandincreasingfinancialvulnerabilitiesinthesecondhalfoftheyear.Basedonourregionalsurveyonconstructioncostsescalationissues(page3),materialcostsandlabouravailabilityremainthetopmostinfluencesonconstructioncostsescalation.Wagecostincreasesovertooksupplychainlogisticsasthethirdmostinfluentialfactorin thesecondhalfoftheyear,tiedwithinterestrates,reflectingglobalmacroeconomicconcerns. Inthisreport,majorityoftheregion’sconstructionindustrycontinuereflectlargelystabilisedmaterialcostinthesecondhalfof2023,asall7citiescoveredreflectednochangeordecreaseinmaterialcosts.Increaseinlabourcostshavebeenreportedin3ofthecities,whiletherestreportedstablebutelevatedlabourcostsinthesameperiod.Regionscoveredinthisreportmostlyexpresscautiousoptimismastheeconomyisexpectedtoavoidaglobalrecessionwithrelativelyflatgrowth. Tenderpricemovementsareexpectedtocontinueescalatingin2024,withawiderangeofY-o-Ymovementcomparedtotheprecedingyear.Thetenderingclimateisexpectedtoremaincompetitiveasmorelarge-scaledevelopmentsareinthepipeline,alongsideahighdemandforinfrastructureworksastheregionrecoversfromtheimpactoftheCOVID-19pandemic. HIGHLIGHTS TPIMovement(%)Y-o-Y MaterialCosts LabourCosts 2023(p) 2024(f) 2Q’23to3Q’23 Singapore 5.0to8.0 3.0to5.0 HoChiMinhCity 2.5to3.0 2.5to3.0 Jakarta 2.9 3.2 KualaLumpur 1.0to3.0 3.0to8.0 PhnomPenh 3.8 2.3 Manila 5.0 5.0 Tokyo 2.6 1.0 p:preliminary,upto3Q2023f:forecast Legend: IncreasedRemainedDecreased HIGHLIGHTS REGIONAL*CONSTRUCTIONINDUSTRYINFLUENCESONESCALATION EXTERNALANDINTERNALIMPACTSONREGIONALCONSTRUCTIONESCALATIONRED=EXTERNALLYCONTROLLEDBLUE=INTERNALLYCONTROLLED Note:Percentagesinthetreemapindicatestheweightageofeachinfluenceonconstructioncostescalation. *Participatingcountries:Cambodia,Indonesia,Malaysia,Philippines,SingaporeandVietnam. BedokBeacon,Singapore ConstructionMarket S$32b-S$38b Constructiondemand2024(f)S$23.3basat3Q2023 S$27b-S$32bin2023(f) S$34b-S$37b Constructionoutput2024(f)S$25.5basat3Q2023S$30b-S$33bin2023(f) 3.0%-5.0% 3%3%--10%10% TPITPIffororecasecastt20202222 8.8.1%1%YY-o--o-YYasasaatt1Q1Q20202222 S$2S$27b7b--S$32bS$32b CConsonstructiontructiondemanddemandffororecasecastt fforor20202222PricPriceemomovvementement S$29S$29.9b.9b(42.2%(42.2%YY-o--o-Y)Y)inin20202121frfromom4Q4Q20202121ttoo1Q1Q S$29bS$29bttooS$32bS$32b20202222 CConsonstructiontructionoutputoutputffororecasecastt••ConstructionConstructionmaterialmaterialfforor20202222••LabourLabour S$26.2bS$26.2b(32.5%(32.5%YY-o--o-Y)Y)inin20202121 Tenderpricesremainonupwardtrend •Labourcostsexpectedtocontinueincreasingamidimbalanceofsupplyanddemand •Highinterestratesworldwidetocombatspirallinginflationtranslatetorisingpricesinthenearterm PhasedonboardingofprojectsontothenewCORENETX •NewregulatoryapprovalprocessforBuildingWorkswherebuildingdesignarecoordinatedupfrontandjointlysubmittedtotheAuthoritiesthroughtheGatewayprocess •Softlaunchon18December2023,voluntarysubmissionfrom1June2024andmandatorysubmissionfornewprojectsfrom1April2025 Keyconstructionpoliciesintroduced •ConstructionDependencyRatioCeilingwillbereducedfrom1:7to1:5from1January2024aspartofthenationaldrivetoupliftproductivitywhilereducingrelianceonforeignmanpower •Loweringoflevyratesforoff-siteconstructionfrom1January2024aimedatsupportingthesector’stransformationandadoptionofmoreproductivetechnologies(i.e.DfMA,automation) TPI2024(f) 3.3%Y-o-Yin3Q2023 5.0%-8.0%Y-o-Yin 2023(f) Pricemovementfrom2Q2023to3Q2023 ConstructionmaterialLabour EconomyIndicators 3%3%--5%5%4.5%4.5%ttoo5.5%5.5%2.2%2.2% GDPGDP20202222ffororecasecasttInflaInflationtion20202222UnemploUnemploymentymentrraattee3.3.7%7%YY-o--o-YYgrgroowthwthininffororecasecastt4.6%4.6%YY-o--o-YY1Q1Q20202222 1Q1Q20202222grgroowthwthinin1Q1Q202022222.2.7%7%inin20202121 1.0%-3.0% GDP2024(f) 1.1%Y-o-Yin3Q2023 1.0%Y-o-Yin2023(