2024年中期电力行业投资策略：电改进入加速期，紧抓估值与成长机遇

    20% 300 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10%    100% 35% 80% 30% 60%40% 150000 15% 1000000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 24.04 0% 20% 20% 500005% 24.1-423.1-4 100 98 96 94 92 90 88 86 24.1-423.1-4 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 D-2D-2 10 D-2 6040 20 0 (20) (40) (60) 16 2023 2024 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 30 A 5500 1600 20 1400 10 1200 1000 0 20Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q1800 -10 600 -20 400 -30 200 -40 0 10 /MWh 4850% 480-1% 475-2% 470-3% 465-4% 460-5% 455-6% 1 2 3 4 5 6 450-7% 300 2.0%1.8% 250 1.6% 200 1.4%1.2% 150 1.0% 100 0.8%0.6%0.4% 50 0.2% 0 2019H1 2023H1 0.0% 25 37803760 20 37403720 15 10 5 0 2022 2023 3700 3680 3660 3640 3620 3600 3580 3560 /kg 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2021-01-06 2022-01-06 2023-01-06 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2024-01-06 2021-08-04 2021-10-04 2021-12-04 2022-02-04 2022-04-04 2022-06-04 2022-08-04 2022-10-04 2022-12-04 2023-02-04 2023-04-04 182 2023-06-04 /kW 2023-08-04 /W 2023-10-04 2023-12-04 2024-02-04 2024-04-04 2024-06-04 100.0% 92.3% 84.8% 77.3% 69.8% 62.3% 54.8% 47.3% 38.4% 24.4% 30.0% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 20202021202220232024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E 400 300 200 100 200% 1 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% 600 500 400 300 200 100 400% 1 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 300% 200% 100% 0% 0-100% 4 0-100% 4 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2021 2022 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2021-07-16 2021-08-16 2021-09-16 2021-10-16 2021-11-16 2023 2021-12-16 2022-01-16 2022-02-16 2022-03-16 2022-04-16 2022-05-16 2022-06-16 2500 2000 1500 1000 2022-07-16 500 0 2022-08-16 2022-09-16 2022-10-16 2022-11-16 2021 2022-12-16 2023-01-16 2023-02-16 / 2023-03-16 2023-04-16 2023-05-16 2023-06-16 2022 2023-07-16 2023-08-16 2023-09-16 2023-10-16 2023-11-16 2023-12-16 2024-01-16 2023 2024-02-16 2024-03-16 2024-04-16 2024-05-16 300 20% 14.00%12.53% 15%10% 5% 12.00%10.00% 8.00%6.00% 0% 4.00%2.00%1.43% -5% -10% 0.00% 49.2% 41.8%40.5%40.1%39.4%39.0%38.6%36.6% 34.5% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 74.4% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% -1.00% -2.00% -3.00% -4.00% 3 72.44% 61.01% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2010Q1 2010Q4 2011Q3 2012Q2 2013Q1 2013Q4 2014Q3 2015Q2 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2016Q1 2016Q4 2017Q3 2018Q2 2019Q1 2019Q4 2020Q3 2021Q2 1.56% 2022Q1 2.24% 2022Q4 2010Q1 2010Q4 2011Q3 2012Q2 2013Q1 2013Q4 2014Q3 2015Q2 2016Q1 2016Q4 2017Q3 2018Q2 2019Q1 2019Q4 2020Q3 2021Q2 2022Q1 2022Q4 2023Q3 SW 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% -20.00% -40.00% 5 2023Q3