2024年Q2全球天然气市场报告

GasMarketReport,Q2-2024 IncludingGlobalGasReview2023 INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY TheIEAexaminesthefullspectrumofenergyissuesincludingoil,gasandcoalsupplyanddemand,renewableenergytechnologies,electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,accesstoenergy,demandsidemanagementandmuchmore.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocatespoliciesthatwillenhancethereliability,affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits31membercountries,13associationcountriesandbeyond. Thispublicationandanymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea. Source:IEA. InternationalEnergyAgencyWebsite:www.iea.org IEAmembercountries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanada CzechRepublicDenmarkEstonia FinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuania LuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNewZealandNorwayPolandPortugal SlovakRepublic SpainSwedenSwitzerland RepublicofTürkiyeUnitedKingdomUnitedStates TheEuropeanCommissionalsoparticipatesintheworkoftheIEA IEAassociationcountries: ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingapore SouthAfricaThailandUkraine Abstract Naturalgasmarketsremainedrelativelycalmoverthe2023/24NorthernHemispherewinter.AsianandEuropeanspotgaspricesfelltopre-crisislevelsinQ12024,whileintheUnitedStatesHenryHubpricesplummetedtomulti-decadelows.Improvingsupplyfundamentalstogetherwithhighstoragelevelsandunseasonablymildweatherkeptnaturalgasmarketsstableoverthe2023/24heatingseason1.Whilethe2023/24gaswinterwasmilderonaverage,itwasaccompaniedbyseverecoldspellsandgasdemandspikes,whichhighlightedtheimportanceofgassupplyflexibilityforenergysecurity. Afterrebalancingin2023,naturalgasmarketsareexpectedtoreturntostrongerdemandgrowthin2024,primarilydrivenbytheindustrialandpowersectorsinthefast-growingeconomiesofAsia.Thecontinuedexpansionofrenewablesandimprovingnuclearavailabilityarelikelytoweighongas-firedpowergenerationinmaturemarkets.Highstoragelevelscouldcontributetothefurthereasingofmarketfundamentalsoverthe2024summer. IEA.CCBY4.0. Geopoliticaltensionsrepresentthegreatestrisktotheshort-termoutlook.LNGtradehashaltedacrosstheRedSeasincethestartoftheyear,whileRussia'songoingattacksonenergyinfrastructureincludingstoragepersist.Inthiscontext,securityofsupplyfor 1Theheatingseason(orgaswinter)inthemarketsoftheNorthernHemispherereferstotheperiodbetween1Octoberand31March. PAGE|1 naturalgasremainsakeyaspectofenergypolicymakingandtherisksrelatedtoouroutlookhighlighttheneedtostrengtheninternationalco-operation,includinginassessingandimplementingflexibilityoptionsalonggasandLNGvaluechains. ThiseditionofthequarterlyGasMarketReportbytheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)providesathoroughreviewofmarketdevelopmentsoverthe2023/24heatingseasonandashort-termoutlookfor2024.AspartoftheIEA’sLow-EmissionsGasesWorkProgramme,thereportincludesasectiononpolicyandregulatorydevelopmentsaimingtostimulatedemandforbiomethane,low-emissionshydrogenande-methane. Tableofcontents Executivesummary3 Gasmarketupdate9 Low-emissionsgases39 Annex50 IEA.CCBY4.0. PAGE|2 Executivesummary IEA.CCBY4.0. PAGE|3 Amildwinterkeptnaturalgasmarketsstablethroughthe2023/24heatingseason Followingthegassupplyshockof2022,naturalgasmarketsmovedtowardsagradualrebalancingin2023andremainedrelativelycalmoverthe2023/24NorthernHemispherewinter.Unseasonablymildwinterweatherconditions,togetherwithimprovingsupplyfundamantalskeptnaturalgasmarketsstable.AsianandEuropeanspotgaspricesfelltopre-crisislevelsinQ12024andintheUnitedStatesHenryHubpricesplummetedtomulti-decadelows.Whilethe2023/24winterwasmilderonaverage,itwasaccompaniedbyseveralcoldspellsandgasdemandspikes,whichhighlightedtheimportanceofgassupplyflexibilityforenergysecurity.Thisforecastexpectsnaturalgasdemandtoincreaseby2.3%in2024,primarilydrivenbyfast-growingAsianmarkets. Unseasonablymildweatherlimitednaturalgasdemandgrowthoverthe2023/24winter IEA.CCBY4.0. Naturalgasconsumptionincreasedbyanestimated2%,oralmost40billioncubicmetres,year-on-year(y-o-y)duringthe2023/24winterinthemarketscoveredinthecurrentQuarterlyGasReport.Demandgrowthwaslargelysupportedbyhighergasuseinthepowerandindustrialsectors,whileanunseasonablymildwinterdepressedspaceheatingrequirementsinthekeymarketsoftheNorthernHemisphere.IntheUnitedStates,residentialandcommercialgasdemanddroppedbyalmost8%y-o-y,whileinEuropeitdeclinedbyanestimated2%comparedtothealreadyverylowlevelsofthe2022/23winter. PAGE|4 Severecoldspellsledtorecord-breakingdemandspikesacrossNorthernHemispheremarkets Despitebeinganunusuallymildwinteronaverage,the2023/24heatingseasonwitnessedseveralcoldspells,whichresultedinrecord-breakingdemandspikesacrosskeymarketsintheNorthernHemisphere.IntheUnitedStates,WinterStormHeatherdrovenaturalgasusetoanall-timehighofalmost4bcmadayon 16January2024-about30%abovethedailydemandaverageovertheDecember–Februaryperiod.InEurope,dailygasdemandsurgedbyalmost40%inonlysixdaystoanestimated2.5bcmadayinearlyJanuary.Colderweathercoincidedwithlowerwindpoweroutput,increasingdemandfo