铁矿石策略周报：宏观利好拔起估值

Z0020173 517 2024 · · 1 .0 -4 24.0 28.0 24.0 .4 54 -67.9 128.0 182.4 0 1. 158.0 157.0 158.0 .8 -1 10.5 11.8 0.0 .5 -27 25.9 27.5 0.0 0 1. 963.0 1020.0 1021.0 0 5. 686.0 718.0 723.0 0 8. 844.0 873.0 881.0 6 5. 133.4 117.2 122.9 3 6. 120.6 104.4 110.7 9 2. 108.2 92.2 95.1 3.0 42.0 26.0 29.0 .0 -4 42.0 18.0 14.0 0 1. -84.0 -44.0 -43.0 .5 -3 15.5 1.5 -2.0 5 0. -26.5 -16.5 -16.0 .5 -0 57.5 27.5 27.0 7 0. 112.0 114.0 114.7 4 0. 115.4 116.4 116.9 7 0. 108.8 111.1 111.8 .5 15 843.5 865.5 881.0 .5 11 885.5 883.5 895.0 .5 12 801.5 839.5 852.0 .0 42 -125.0 -153.0 -111.0 3.0 20 -209.0 -291.0 -88.0 .0 48 -74.0 -129.0 -81.0 .0 0 50.7 52.0 52.0 .5 22 -339.6 -326.1 -303.6 6.4 -1 -126.9 -186.4 -202.8 .4 14 2432.1 2648.0 2662.4 wind wind .5 -0 33.9 32.6 32.1 .7 -51 9364.6 9323.5 9271.9 0.3 10 8838.5 9043.4 9143.7 .6 -11 717.2 714.0 702.4 .6 52 1381.4 1483.7 1536.3 .7 -49 1809.5 1712.7 1663.1 9.2 13 10651.4 10764.8 10904.0 0.6 13 14559.5 14675.2 14805.8 · · .8 -95 992.8 932.5 836.7 0 3. 443.1 418.5 421.5 .2 17 540.9 605.2 622.4 .5 12 457.3 466.2 478.7 .7 -60 576.2 704.3 643.6 7.8 11 554.4 439.5 557.3 .2 -3 626.2 631.1 627.9 8.5 -23 1829.7 2056.1 1817.6 1.6 -24 2455.9 2687.2 2445.6 3.8 -12 3010.3 3126.7 3002.9 307.0 302.7 300.8 4. 3 236.9 234.5 226.2 2. 4 81.5 81.5 78.9 0. 0 88.6 87.7 84.6 0. 9 290.3 261.9 288.0 28 .4 330.5 323.1 323.5 7. 4 86.0 89.0 86.6 -3 .1 152.2 156.9 155.4 -4.7 102.1 99.2 104.4 2. 9 65.6 66.2 66.4 -0 .6 39.2 39.8 40.2 -0 .5 51.2 51.7 51.8 -0 .5 56.1 65.6 66.9 -9 .4 2345.7 2041.5 2178.1 30 4.2 01 / 05 / 09 / 852 895 881 · 01 / 05 / 09 / PB / / / 723 62% / 65% / 58% / PB- / - / PB - / / · · 目前X值： 矿物自身品质（%） 品质升贴水 品牌升贴水 总升贴水 现货价格 折盘面价格 基差(交割亏损） 1.5 Fe SiO2 Al2O3 P S 水分 Fe SiO2 Al2O3 P S 总计 现货价格 干基价格 1月 5月 9月 PB粉 61.5 3.8 2.3 0.1 0.02 9 7.5 3.5 4 0 0 15 15 30 881 968 938 268 121 227 纽曼粉 62.4 4.2 2.4 0.09 0.02 7.5 21 1.5 2 0 0 24.5 0 24.5 914 988 964 294 147 253 麦克粉 61 4.7 2.3 0.09 0.03 7.5 0 -2 4 0 0 2 0 2 858 928 926 256 109 215 金布巴粉 60.5 4.4 3 0.12 0.02 7.2 -7.5 0.5 -15 -20 0 -42 0 -42 834 899 941 271 124 230 罗伊山粉 61 4.9 2.3 0.06 0.04 8.5 0 -4 4 0 -1 -1 0 -1 862 942 943 273 126 232 BRBF 62.5 5 1.7 0.07 0 8.5 22.5 -5 16 0 0 33.5 15 48.5 910 995 946 276 129 235 超特粉 56.5 6.2 3.1 0.06 0.03 9 -120 -17 -18 0 0 -155 0 -155 723 795 950 280 133 239 FMG混合粉 58.5 5.6 2.5 0.07 0.04 7.5 -60 -11 0 0 -1 -72 0 -72 783 846 918 248 101 207 卡拉加斯粉 65 1.7 1.5 0.08 0 8.5 75 14 20 0 0 109 15 124 1021 1116 992 322 175 281 河钢精粉 66.5 6 0.5 0.01 0.01 0 112.5 -15 30 0 0 127.5 0 127.5 0 0 -128 -798 -945 -839 鞍钢精粉 64.9 4.3 0.6 0.02 0.05 0 72.5 1 30 0 -2 101.5 0 101.5 0 0 -102 -772 -919 -813 杨迪粉 57 6 1.65 0.05 0.01 9.5 -105 -15 17 0 0 -103 0 -103 832 919 1022 352 205 311 卡拉拉精粉 65.5 7 1 0.1 0.1 9.5 87.5 -27.5 30 0 -7 83 0 83 985 1088 1005 335 188 294 IOC6 61.5 7.2 1.7 0.07 0 9.5 7.5 -30.5 16 0 0 -7 0 -7 837 925 932 262 115 221 KUMBA 63.2 6 1.8 0.06 0.01 2.35 33 -15 14 0 0 32 0 32 941 964 932 262 115 221 乌克兰精粉 65.9 8 0.2 0.1 0 10.06 97.5 -42.5 30 0 0 85 0 85 994 1105 1020 350 203 309 本钢精粉 67.5 6 0.2 0.02 0.02 0 137.5 -15 30 0 0 152.5 0 152.5 0 0 -153 -823 -970 -864 马钢精粉 65.48 4.79 1.52 0.0019 0.0545 0 230.36 -2.9 19.6 0 -2.45 244.61 0 244.61 1030 1030 785 115 -32 74 太钢精粉 65.5 4 1 0.035 0.02 0 231.5 2.5 30 0 0 264 0 264 0 0 -264 -934 -1081 -975 五矿标准粉 61.5 6 2.2 0.07 0.02 8.9 23.5 -15 6 0 0 14.5 0 14.5 892 979 965 295 148 254 SP10粉 58.5 4.45 2.35 0.07 0.025 9 -140 0.25 3 0 0 -136.75 0 -136.75 803 882 1019 349 202 308 wind 09 PB-09 / 1809 1909 2009 2109 2209 23092409 01 PB-01 / 05 PB-05 / 18011901200121012201230124012501 01-05 / 1801-18051901-19052001-20052101-2105 05-09 / 2201-22052301-23052401-24052501-2505 09-01 / 1709-18011809-19011909-20012009-2101 2109-22012209-23012309-24012409-2501 / / 823.0 895.0895.5 883.5 891.0 892.5 888.5 885329..05 847.5 834.0 8881.0 840.0 830.0 881.0 865.5 874.5 859.0 868.5861.0 837.0 853.5848.0 111166..84541165.4870115.8270115.29 114.62114. 111111..705110.34 8111.02111009..2682 110098..5981 2024-05-162024-05-09 2017 2021 2018 2022 2019 2023 2020 2024 62.5%/ 2017201820192020 20212022202320 % 65% / 20172018201920202021202220232024 % 38 202220232024 2017201820192020202120222023 20222023 · 332 · 186 % 126 201920202021202220232024201920202021202220232024201920202021202220232024 186 30 · 201920202021202220232024202220232024 · · · · 20202021202220232024201920202021 · · 202220232024 201920202021 202220232024 20192020202120202021202220232024 202220232024 · · BHP · FMG · 201920202021202220232024201920202021202220232024201920202021202220232024 Vale · · 20192020202120222023202420202021202220232024 → / VLFSO / → / · · 20202021202220232024 20172018201920202021202220232024 - *10 2017201920202021202220232024 · 2017201820192020 201720182019202020212022202320242021202220232024 % % 2017201820192020 2021202220232024 2017201820192020 202120222