亚洲基金经理调查 ： 对更高的通胀预期持之以恒

AsiaFundManagerSurvey Holdinggroundagainsthigherinflationexpectations Accessibleversion FMSvotesforanaccelerationinglobalgrowthmomentum TheGlobalFundManagerSurveyupgradeditsviewoftheworldeconomybythebiggestmargininthepost-COVIDera,underscoringthemessagefromourgrowthindicatorsthataglobalupturnisinmotion.SeeBofAGPS:Themissingpiece28Mar2024.Themarketviewrhymeswithourlong-termbullishness,withonly23%ofthepanelistsseeingadouble-digitcorrectioninglobalequitiesthisyear.Thougheuphoricsentimentamidrisingbondyieldswarrantsaclosetabonstock-bondcorrelations,bondvolatilitiesandmarketbreadthtoavoidgettingcaughtoff-guard.SeeAftertherally11Apr2024. EarningsboosttodrivemarketupsideinAsia TheFMSassessmentoftheAPACex-Japaneconomyandmarkets,incontrast,stagnatedatelevatedlevels,withnet45%expectingastrongereconomyand83%countingonhigherlevelsintheregionalequitymarketsinthenext12months.Muchofwhichislikelytobederivedfromaboostincorporateearningsasvaluationstreadatfairlevels.Thecaveatisthattheupsidehascomeatthecostofhigherinflationexpectations(net13%expecthigherinflationinAPACex-Japaninnext12monthsvs-43%inJanuary). Crawlingbackintotheradar ThetoneonChina,too,improvedonthemargin.Net28%ofthepanelistsexpectastrongereconomyoverthenext12months,versus-10%inFebruary,afterastringofabove-expectedprints.Thesurveyreflectsamorepatientwait-and-watchapproachtotheequitymarkets,asallocationstickupforthesecondmonthinarow.Yet,thelong-termprospectsremainuncomfortablydispirited,withcallsforstructuralde-rating. Thego-tomarketintheregion TheFMSstaysoverwhelminglypositiveonJapan,with7in8panelistsexpectingpositivereturnsinthenext12months,withscantcallsforapeakanytimesoon,ascorporategovernancereformsgathermomentum.Net70%expecttheeconomytostrengtheninthenext12months,withforexinterventionexpectedtostrikewhentheUSDJPYgoespast155.DovishremarksintheMarchBoJmeetinghavemuddledthetimelinesfortheofficialdeclarationtoanendtodeflationandthenextinterestrateraise,withthethirdquarterofthecalendaremergingasthemostlikelywindow. Abarbelloftech,industrials,energy,andbanks Bubbleornot,theFMSvotedalmostunanimouslyinfavorofthesemiconductorcycle,withanoverweightallocationnotjustforthesector,butthebroadertechnologycomplexingeneral.Encouraginglythough,itisnolongerjustatech/industrialsstory,asenergyandbanksjointhefray.Amongmarkets,TaiwanpippedIndiatothesecondspotafterJapan,whiletheFMSstrayedawayfromChina.Noticeably,thepositiveimpulseoftheCorporateValue-UpPrograminKoreaisyettomakeadentonmarketallocations. Tradingideasandinvestmentstrategiesdiscussedhereinmaygiverisetosignificantriskandarenotsuitableforallinvestors.Investorsshouldhaveexperienceinrelevantmarketsandthefinancialresourcestoabsorbanylossesarisingfromapplyingtheseideasorstrategies. >>Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofBofASandisnotregistered/qualifiedasaresearchanalystundertheFINRArules. Referto"OtherImportantDisclosures"forinformationoncertainBofASecuritiesentitiesthattakeresponsibilityfortheinformationhereininparticularjurisdictions. BofASecuritiesdoesandseekstodobusinesswithissuerscoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision. 16April2024 PredictiveAnalyticsAsia RiteshSamadhiya,CFA>>EquityStrategist MerrillLynch(HongKong) +85235087907 ritesh.samadhiya@bofa.com AritraBaksi,CFA>>EquityStrategist MerrillLynch(HongKong) +85235087914 aritra.baksi@bofa.com MasashiAkutsu>>Strategist BofASJapan +81362257754 masashi.akutsu@bofa.com TonyLin,CFA>>EquityStrategistBofASJapan +81362258123 tony.y.lin@bofa.com FMS:FundManagerSurvey Notestoreaders Atotalof260panelistswith$719bnAUMparticipatedinthesurvey.224participantswith$638bnAUMrespondedtotheglobalFMSquestionsand144participantswith$319bnAUMrespondedtotheregionalFMSquestions. Surveyperiod:5–11April2024 HowtojointheFMSpanelInvestors/clientsareencouragedtosignuptoparticipateintheSurvey.ThiscanbedonebycontactingMichaelHartnettoryourBofAsalesrepresentative. Participantsinthesurveyreceivethefullsetofresultsforthemonthsinwhichtheyparticipate. Holdinggroundagainsthigherinflationexpectations Exhibit1:Net%FMSinvestorsexpectingastrongerGlobal/AsiaPacificex-Japaneconomy TheGlobalFMSvotedinfavorofanaccelerationinthegrowthmomentumoftheglobaleconomy,whilethatontheAPACex-Japaneconomystagnatedatelevatedlevels 100 AsiaPacificex-JapanGlobal 100 5050 00 -50-50 -100 979901030507091113151719212325 -100 Source:BofAGlobal&AsiaFundManagerSurvey BofAGLOBALRESEARCH Exhibit2:FMSopinionaboutthepotentialofadouble-digitcorrectioninglobalequitiesin2024 Contrariansareararebreed:despiteeuphoricsentiment,only23%seeadouble-digitcorrectionthisyear FMSopinionaboutthepotentialofadouble-digitcorrectioninglobalequitiesin2024 68% 23% YesNo Source:BofAAsiaFundManagerSurvey.Notes:Votesfor‘Don'tknow’(10%)arenotshownabove. Exhibit3:FMSviewofAsiaPacex-Japanequitiesoverthenext12months 83%ofinvestorsanticipateAsiaPacificex-Japanequitiestoriseinthenext12mo