南华热卷策略周报：出口竞争加剧，短期恐见顶

624 2023 Z0012648 F03095899 195 236 -41 251 89 90 -1 101 FOB 555 560 -5 555 6月21日 6月20日 6月15日 6月21日6月20日 6月15日 10 3,786 3,836 -1.38% 3,861 01 163130 33 120 10 46.12 41.31 4.80 3,861 05 228195 33 192 10 82.84 84.82 -1.98 89.28 10 8444 40 39 4.75mm 3,870 3,880 -10 3,900 01-05 6565 0 72 4.75mm 3,800 3,820 -20 3,790 05-10 -144-151 7 -153 4.75mm 3,810 3,830 -20 3,810 10-01 7986 -7 81 4.75mm 3,820 3,850 -30 3,870 8090 -10 130 6mm - 2,580 2,580 0 2,580 01 9991 8 114 PB- 850 855 -5 860 05 8787 0 97 - 1,940 1,940 0 1,940 10 10093 7 101 - 6050 10 90 - -50-30 -20 -30 - 1020 -10 60 FOB 580 580 0 580 FOB - 3530 5 40 FOB 590 590 0 595 FOB - 2520 5 25 FOB 660 660 0 670 FOB (- ) 2520 5 25 FOB 580 580 0 580 FOB (- 105100 5 115 CFR 545 550 -5 545 CFR 660660 0 660 CFR 585 585 0 585 CFR 545545 0 553 2023/6/232023/6/16 308.71312.36325.87-3.65-17.16 77 273.27268.50269.864. 83.7283.7082.780.02 111.92106.11125.075.81 155.97156.84144.83 2023/6/232023/6/16 350.16353.33 85.4488.83 264.72264. 1.12 2023 | 01 / 05 / 10 / 4500 4300 4100 3900 3700 3500 3300 2022/6/242022/8/242022/10/242022/12/242023/2/242023/4/24 4900 4700 4500 4300 4100 3900 3700 3500 3300 2022/6/242022/8/242022/10/242022/12/242023/2/242023/4/24 4600 4400 4200 4000 3800 3600 3400 3200 3000 2022/6/242022/8/242022/10/242022/12/242023/2/242023/4/24 / / / 5200 5000 4800 4600 4400 4200 4000 3800 3600 3400 2022/6/202022/8/202022/10/202022/12/202023/2/202023/4/202023/6/20 5500 5300 5100 4900 4700 4500 4300 4100 3900 3700 3500 2022/6/202022/8/202022/10/202022/12/202023/2/202023/4/202023/6/20 5100 4900 4700 4500 4300 4100 3900 3700 3500 2022/6/202022/8/202022/10/202022/12/202023/2/202023/4/202023/6/20 & / 01 / 10 / 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 2022/6/202022/10/202023/2/202023/6/20 600 2001 2101 2201 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 2 2301 650 2010 2110 2210 2310 2410 550 450 350 250 150 50 -50 -150 -250 1 1 1 1 1 1 1113579 - / - / - / 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 -250 1 1 1 1 1357 1 1 911 300 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 200 100 0 -100 -200 1 1 1 1 1357 1 1 911 250 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 1 1 1 1 1357 1 1 911 01 / 05 / 10 / 2001 2101 2201 2301 2401 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 131415161718191101111121 2 900 2005 2105 2205 700 500 300 100 -100 -300 6 23052405 900 700 500 300 100 -100 -300 11 2010211022102310 01-05 / 05-10 / 10-01 / 2001-2005 2301-2305 2101-2105 2401-2405 2201-2205 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 1 0 1 1 678 1 1 910 1 1 1112 250 2005-2010 2305-2310 2105-2110 2405-2410 2205-2210 200 150 100 50 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 11121234 250 1910-2001 2210-2301 2010-2101 2310-2401 2110-2201 200 150 100 50 0 1 1 23 1 1 1 1 1 1 456789 / / / 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 2 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 2005 2105 2205 2305 2405 2010 2110 2210 2310 2410 2 700 500 300 100 -100 -300 -500 2022/3/112022/6/112022/9/112022/12/112023/3/112023/6/11 01 / 05 / 10 / 2001 2101 2201 2301 2401 1900 1900 1900 1400 1400 1400 900 900 900 400 400 400 -100 131415161718191101111121 2 -100 171819110111112111213141 6 -100 1 1 1 1 1 1 1113579 247 % 247 % 355 345 335 325 315 305 295 285 2019 2020 2021 2022 275 2023 20192020202120222023 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 20192020202120222023 95 90 85 80 75 70 WWW-16W-12W-8W-4WW+4W+8W+12W+16W+20W+24W+28W+32 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 210 205 200 195 190 185 180 175 170 165 20192020202120222023 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 W-16W-12W-8W-4WW+4W+8W+12W+16W+20W+24W+28W+32 W-16W-12W-8W-4WW+4W+8W+12W+16W+20W+24W+28W+32 W-16W-12W-8W-4WW+4W+8W+12W+16W+20W+24W+28W+32 20192020202120222023 73 68 63 58 53 48 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 2019202020212022202385 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 W-16W-12W-8W-4WW+4W+8W+12W+16W+20W+24W+28W+32 W-16W-12W-8W-4WW+4W+8W+12W+16W+20W+24W+28W+32 W-16W-12W-8W-4WW+4W+8W+12W+16W+20W+24W+28W+32 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 3030 28 25 26 2420 22 15 20 1810 16 145 630 580 530 480 430 380 330 280 2019 2020 230 20192020202120222023 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 202120222023 450 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 400 350 300 250 200 150 W-16W-12W-8W-4WW+4W+8W+12W+16W+20W+24W+28W+32W W-16W-12W-8W-4WW+4W+8W+12W+16W+20W+24W+28W+32 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 110 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 350 330 310 290 270 250 W-16W-12W-8W-4WW+4W+8W+12W+16W+20W+24W+28W+32 450 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 350 250 150 50 -50 W-16W-12W-8W-4WW+4W+8W+12W+16W+20W+24W+28W+32 250 2019 2020 2021 2022 200 150 100 50 0 -50 W 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 W-16W-12W-8W-4WW+4W+8W+12W+16W+20W+24W+28W+32 170 2019 2020 2021