南华铁合金策略周报：铁水下行，需求走弱

1020 2023 Z0012648 F03118257 40.76 40.24 0.52 901.5 918.21 -16.71 462.36 488.52 -26.16 242.44 245.95 -3.51 14820 14820 0 54335 54335 0 4004 4004 0 24.64 24.98 -1.35% 11.22 11.53 -2.69% 35200 35680 -480 16023 16483 -460 174730 174730 0 65580 65580 0 68.87 70.65 -1.78 508.62 517.82 -9.2 337.97 360.52 -22.55 82.34 82.2 0.14 70.6 68.01 2.59 19.05 24.24 -5.19 1 12168.87%1.78%35200480 508.62-9.2 631747308200119301100145800 90002500200300010009500500 2000 11 / / / SM 7400 7200 7000 6800 6600 6400 6200 6000 21-Apr21-May21-Jun21-Jul21-Aug21-Sep 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 7100 6900 6700 6500 6300 2023/10/192023/10/122023/9/27 101112010203040506070809 7400 7200 7000 6800 6600 6400 6200 6000 2023/4/232023/5/232023/6/232023/7/232023/8/232023/9/23 12 / 12-23 / 03- 03 / 2112 2212 2312 700 500 300 100 -100 -300 -500 1212345678910 300 2012-2103 2212-2303 2112-2203 2312-2403 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 1 1 3157 1 1 911 1500 1300 1100 900 700 500 300 100 -100 -300 20032103220323032403 23456789101112 / / / 1000 500 0 -500 -1000 2023/4/232023/5/232023/6/232023/7/232023/8/232023/9/23 7500 7000 6500 6000 2023/4/232023/5/232023/6/232023/7/232023/8/232023/9/23 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1 2020202120222023 131517191111 / / / 36.5 32 45 44.5 41 39 37 35 33 31 29 27 25 2023/5/232023/6/232023/7/232023/8/232023/9/23 39 33 36.5 44.5 37 35 33 31 29 27 25 2023/5/232023/6/232023/7/232023/8/232023/9/23 0.7 0.65 0.6 0.55 0.5 0.45 0.4 0.35 0.3 23/4/1023/5/1023/6/1023/7/1023/8/1023/9/1023/10/10 % 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 1 1 1 1 1357 1 1 911 75 2020 2021 2022 2023 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 W-16W-12W-8W-4WW+4W+8W+12W+16W+20W+24W+28W+32W+36 16350 14350 12350 10350 8350 6350 4350 2350 350 3 2021 9 2021 3 2022 9 2022 3 2023 9 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 1 1 1 1 1357 1 1 911 28 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 1 1 1 135 1 1 1 7911 25 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20 15 10 5 0 1 1 1 135 1 1 1 7911 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 20192020202120222023 27 25 23 21 19 17 1 1 1 15 260 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 1 1 1 W-16W-12W-8W-4WW+4W+8W+12W+16W+20W+24W+28W+32W+36 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 W-16W-12W-8W-4WW+4W+8W+12W+16W+20W+24W+28W+32W+36 135 7911 6517 / 6517 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 14000 13000 12000 11000 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 1 1 13 1 1 1 1 57911 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 20192020202120222023 123456789101112 2520222023 20 15 10 5 0 63 + 5/ 2021 2022 2023 320000 270000 220000 170000 120000 70000 40000 30000 20000 10000 80000 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 20000 0 0 1 1 3 1 51 7 1 9 1 11 1 1 1 3 1 51 7 1 9 1 11 1 1 1 3 1 51 7 1 9 1 11 1 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 35000 2021 2022 2023 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 2021 2022 2023 0 1 1 1 1 1357 1 1 911 0 2021 2022 2023 1 1 1 1 1357 1 1 911 0 1 1 1 1 1357 1 1 911 44.5% / 43% / South32 / 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 889 88 778 777 66 666 55 555 444 44 1 1 333 17191111 11 31 51 71 91 111 11 315171 91111 / Jupiter 36.5% / UMK 36% / 135 South32 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 1 1 1 1 1357 1 1 911 8 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 1 1 1 135 1 1 1 7911 8 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 1 1 1 135 1 1 1 7911 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 700750 600 650 500 400 300 200 100 550 450 350 250 0 2022/4/12022/7/12022/10/12023/1/12023/4/12023/7/12023/10/1 150 W-16W-12W-8W-4WW+4W+8W+12W+16W+20W+24W+28W+32W+36 190 170 650 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 550 150 130 110 90 70 450 350 250 150 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 50 W-16W-12W-8W-4WW+4W+8W+12W+16W+20W+24W+28W+32W+36 50 W-16W-12W-8W-4WW+4W+8W+12W+16W+20W+24W+28W+32W+36 → → 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 16111621263136414651 50 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 16111621263136414651 → → 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2516 14 20 12 1510 8 106 4 5 2 0 16111621263136414651 0 16111621263136414651 3506560 300 55 25050 45 200 40 15035 30 100 25 5020 2018/5/162019/11/162021/5/162022/11/16 10070 9065 8060 7055 6050 5045 4040 3035 2030 1025 020 2018/5/162019/11/162021/5/162022/11/16 9080 80 70 70 6060 50 50 40 3040 20 30 10 020 2018/5/162019/11/162021/5/162022/11/16 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 2022/1/302022/7/302023/1/302023/7/30 5080 75 4570 4065 60 3555 50 3045 2540 35 2030 2022/1/302022/7/302023/1/302023/7/30 396545 376040 35 55 3530 5025 33 4520 314015 10 29355 27300 2022/1/302022/7/302023/1/302023/7/30 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 1 1 13 1 1