权衡衡量赤字国家的 GDP 增长 — — 以土库孟斯埃塞俄比亚为例 （ 汉 ）

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This IMF Working Paper examines the issue of overestimated GDP growth in countries with statistical shortcomings, using Turkmenistan as a case study. The authors find that official data in such countries are often unreliable and that alternative estimates are necessary for proper economic analysis and informed policymaking. The paper discusses the challenges in assessing GDP growth in Turkmenistan and presents alternative estimates using various forecasting methods. The authors conclude that alternative estimates can provide a more accurate picture of economic performance in countries with statistical shortcomings.