中国出口展望：要回暖了吗？

- 20111290 8 1-8 1.1% 8 8 70% 70% Z0017101 I2023 920 I2023920 1.2023Q41 1.18...................................................1 1.2.........................................................4 2.2023Q413 2.1.....................................................................13 .................................................................................................................15 1.2023Q4 85013.88.2% 5.42848.78.8% 5.72165.17.3%75.1 683.6122.4 8 8.8% PMI 50% 60% 1.18 714.5% 8 8 1.1.120238 8.8% iFinD 8 8 PMI 1 8 65% PMI 50 18 1.1.22023 % 1.1.3 8 7% iFinD iFinD 1.1.4 % 1.1.5 300.00 250.00 200.00 150.00 100.00 50.00 0.00 -50.00 -100.00 -150.00 -200.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 -10.00 -20.00 -30.00 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 越南 泰国20232022 新加坡20212020 菲律宾 马来西亚印度尼西亚 20192018 20172016 出口总额(美元计价):东盟（右轴）20152014 iFinD iFinD 1.1.6 PMI% 1.1.7 % PMI iFinD iFinD PPI 8 8 1.1.820238 % iFinD 1.1.9 1.1.10 PPI iFinD iFinD 8 1.2 8 1-8 1.1% 2 8 1.2.1 1-8 iFinD 22012-20191.0% 1. 20228 10 - 1.53% 2. OECD OECD OECD OECD 1.2.2 OECD OECD iFinD PMI 2024 (1) PMI 1993 13 7 OCED 2 1.2.31993 iFinD 1.2.4OCED iFinD PMI 2024 (2) PMI 50 1.2.5 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 -5.00 -10.00 -15.00 -20.00 iFinD 1.2.6 iFinD 2024 1993-03 1994-06 1995-09 1996-12 1998-03 1999-06 2000-09 2001-12 % PMI 2003-03 2004-06 2005-09 2006-12 2008-03 2009-06 2010-09 2011-12 2013-03 2014-06 2015-09 I 2016-12 2023 2018-03 2019-06 9 2020-09 2021-12 20 8 2023-03 iFinD iFinD GDP4% 8670 2.3 (3) 1.2.9 % iFinD iFinD 1.2.112023 1.2.12 iFinD iFinD (4) 2016/2/1 1.2.13 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 Bloomberg 3. SCFI BDI 2016/6/1 2016/10/1 2017/2/1 2017/6/1 2017/10/1 2018/2/1 2018/6/1 2018/10/1 2019/2/1 2019/6/1 2019/10/1 2020/2/1 2020/6/1 2020/10/1 2021/2/1 2021/6/1 2021/10/1 PPI 2022/2/1 I 2022/6/1 2023 2022/10/1 2023/2/1 9 20 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 CCFI 11 2023/6/1 1.2.14 1.2.15 BDI iFinD iFinD 2.2023Q4 20238 138651460620231-8 10435510601420238 8 1933 15168 2036 2023 20231-814934 401684335220231-8 285945286729 2023856006043 20231-84088940981 2.1 88 72.30%78.6%70.90%73.8% 82.7 64.3%2017 70% 70%70% 70% 70% 2.1.1 % 80.00 75.00 70.00 65.00 60.00 55.00 50.00 70 iFinD I2023920 / 136 310008 4008888910 www.nanhua.net 603093