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迁移、搜索和技能异质性（英）

信息技术2023-06-01IMF墨***

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This paper examines the impact of migration on business cycle stability, with a focus on the role of skill composition. The author argues that migration can act as an important adjustment mechanism to country-specific shocks, but the skill composition of migration can have unintended consequences. The paper finds that when migration flows become more concentrated in skilled labor, there is a trade-off between labor market adjustment and business cycle stability. The author also discusses the implications of these findings for policy. Overall, the paper provides valuable insights into the impact of migration on the business cycle and the importance of considering skill composition in migration policy.

Migration,SearchandSkillHeterogeneity MyrtoOikonomou WP/23/136 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate. TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. 2023 JUN ©2023InternationalMonetaryFundWP/23/136 IMFWorkingPaper AfricanDepartment Migration,SearchandSkillHeterogeneityPreparedbyMyrtoOikonomou* AuthorizedfordistributionbyMercedesVeraMartin June2023 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. ABSTRACT:Cross-bordermigrationcanactasanimportantadjustmentmechanismtocountry-specificshocks.Yet,dependingonwhomoves,itcanhaveunintendedconsequencesforbusinesscyclestability.Thispaperarguesthattheskillcompositionofmigrationplaysacriticalrole.Whenmigrationflowsbecomemoreconcentratedinskilledlaboranimportanttrade-offarises.Ontheonehand,migrationreleasesunemploymentpressuresfortheorigincountries.Ontheotherhand,itgeneratesnegativecompositionaleffects(theso-called“braindrain”effects)andskillimbalances,whichreducesupplycapacityinorigincountries.Thispaperanalysesquantitativelytheimpactofcyclicalmigrationinanopen-economyDynamicStochasticGeneralEquilibrium(DSGE)modelwithendogenousmigrationflows,tradelinkages,searchandmatchingfrictions,andskillheterogeneity.IapplythisframeworktothecaseoftheGreekemigrationwavefollowingtheEuropeanDebtCrisis.WhatIfindisthatemigrationflowsimpliedstrongnegativeeffectsforcapitalformation,leadingtomorethana15percentagepointdropininvestment.RatherthanstabilizingtheGreekbusinesscycle,labormobilityledtoadeeperandmoreprotractedrecession. RECOMMENDEDCITATION:MyrtoOikonomou,2023,Migration,SearchandSkillHeterogeneity,IMFWorkingPaperWP/23/136 JELClassificationNumbers: E22,E32,F41,J24 Keywords: Migration;MatchingFrictions;SkillHeterogeneity Author’sE-MailAddress: moikonomou@imf.org *TheauthorwouldliketothankAndreaFerrero,HarrisDellasandFrancescoZanettifortheirinsightfulcommentsandguidance.ThispaperhasbenefitedgreatlyfromcommentsfromPetrSedlacekMichaelMcMahon,RomainDuval,EvgeniaVella,DanielaHauser,FilipposPetroulakis,RobertZymekandtheIMFAFRDepartment’sResearchAdvisoryGroup.IthasalsobenefitedfromthewarmhospitalityandconversationswitheconomistsattheDanishNationalBank,theFederalReserveBankofSaintLouisandtheIMFRESStructuralandClimatePoliciesworkshop. Migration,SearchandSkillHeterogeneity MyrtoOikonomou∗June1,2023 Abstract Cross-bordermigrationcanactasanimportantadjustmentmechanismtocountry-specificshocks.Yet,dependingonwhomoves,itcanhaveunintendedconsequencesforbusinesscyclestability.Thispaperarguesthattheskillcompositionofmigrationplaysacriticalrole.Whenmigrationflowsbecomemoreconcentratedinskilledlaboranimportanttrade-offarises.Ontheonehand,migrationreleasesunemploymentpres-suresfortheorigincountries.Ontheotherhand,itgeneratesnegativecompositionaleffects(theso-called“braindrain”effects)andskillimbalances,whichreducesupplycapacityinorigincountries.Thispaperanalysesquantitativelytheimpactofcycli-calmigrationinanopen-economyDynamicStochasticGeneralEquilibrium(DSGE)modelwithendogenousmigrationflows,tradelinkages,searchandmatchingfrictions,andskillheterogeneity.IapplythisframeworktothecaseoftheGreekemigrationwavefollowingtheEuropeanDebtCrisis.WhatIfindisthatemigrationflowsimpliedstrongnegativeeffectsforcapitalformation,leadingtomorethana15percentagepointdropininvestment.RatherthanstabilizingtheGreekbusinesscycle,labormobilityledtoadeeperandmoreprotractedrecession. JELCodes:E22,E32,F41,J24 Keywords:Migration,MatchingFrictions,SkillHeterogeneity ∗Email:moikonomou@imf.org.TheauthorwouldliketothankAndreaFerrero,HarrisDellasandFrancescoZanettifortheirinsightfulcommentsandguidance.ThispaperhasbenefitedgreatlyfromcommentsfromPetrSedlacekMichaelMcMahon,RomainDuval,EvgeniaVella,DanielaHauser,Filip-posPetroulakis,RobertZymekandtheIMFAFRDepartment’sResearchAdvisoryGroup.IthasalsobenefitedfromthewarmhospitalityandconversationswitheconomistsattheDanishNationalBank,theFederalReserveBankofSaintLouisandtheIMFRESStructuralandClimatePoliciesworkshop. Contents 1Introduction 3 2RelatedLiterature 6 3TheModel 8 3.1ModelOverview.................................. 8 3.2laborMarkets................................... 9 3.3Households.................................... 11 3.4Production.................................... 14 3.4.1FinalGoodFirms............................. 14 3.4.2IntermediateGoodFirm......................... 15 3.5MarketClearing.................................. 17 4Calibration 19 5QuantitativeAnalysis 23 5.1Theamplifyingroleofmigration......................... 23 5.2Wholeavesmatters................................ 26 6Conclusion 29 References 30 AAppendix 30 A.1AdditionalFigures................................ 30 A.2ModelEquations................................. 31 A.

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