人民币汇率周报：美联储或暂停加息

- 20111290 6 8 CPI 6 612-616 6.98-7.20 7 Z0017101 I2023 612 1..........................................................................................1 1.1.............................................................................................1 1.2.........................................................................................2 1.2.1....................................................................................................2 1.2.2....................................................................................................3 1.3...........................................................................................................3 2.................................................................................................4 2.1-.................................................................................4 2.2.....................................................................................4 2.2.1.............................................................................................4 2.2.2.............................................................................................5 2.2.3.........................................................................................6 2.2.4.........................................................................................7 2.3................................................................................................8 2.3.1..........................................................................8 2.3.2.......................................................................9 3..........................................................................................9 3.1..................................................................................9 3.2........................................................................14 ................................................................................................13 ..................................................................................................13 .........................................................................................................14 ....................................................................................................................15 .................................................................................................................16 .............................................................................................................16 .................................................................................................................17 1. ( BIS 7.0939 7.1280 7.0904 7.1115 0.248% USDCNY7.0750 7.1275 7.1174 7.1241 0.694% USDCNH7.0893 7.1491 7.1135 7.1310 0.588% 139.7816 139.9959 138.8507 139.3643 -0.299% 1.0723 1.0780 1.0695 1.0749 0.242% 1.2467 1.2580 1.2417 1.2580 0.907% 104.0495 104.1377 103.3197 103.5611 -0.469% CFETS98.14 —— —— 97.65 -0.499% 102.49 —— —— 102.00 -0.478% 94.07 —— —— 93.74 -0.351% 1.1 202365-69 CFETSBIS SDR 6916:30 1.1.1 ) ( SDR iFinD ) 6 1.1.1202365-69 USDCNHUSDCNY Bloomberg 1.1.2 7.15 7.10 7.05 7.00 6.95 6.90 6.85 6.80 6.75 107.00 106.00 105.00 104.00 103.00 102.00 101.00 6.70 2023-02-102023-03-102023-04-102023-05-10 100.00 : Wind 1.2 1.2.1 8 CPI 6 612-616 6.98-7.20 7 1.2.2 7.10 1.2.3 2. - 2.1 69 7.1115176 2.1.1 1 2 176 225 497 -546 179 RefinitivBloomberg 509 403 -733 2.2.1 2.2.2 0.060 0.040 0.020 0.000 (0.020) (0.040) 7.40 7.20 7.00 6.80 6.60 6.40 6.20 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 (0.02) (0.04) (0.06) (0.08) (0.10) (0.12) 2022/8/17 2022/9/17 2022/10/17 2022/11/17 2022/12/17 2023/1/17 2023/2/17 2023/3/17 2023/4/17 2023/5/17 (0.14) 5 (0.060) USDCNY16:30 RefinitivBloombergRefinitivBloomberg 2.2 2.2.1 69 3 97 1“一篮子货币汇率贡献”根据Refinitiv调整后数据计算 2“逆周期因子贡献”根据Refinitiv调整后数据计算 = - 3 7.60 7.40 7.20 7.00 6.80 6.60 6.40 6.20 6.00 2019-12-192020-12-192021-12-192022-12-19 : iFinD 2.2.2 4 8% 71% 72% 3%4 55 2.2.4 700.00 600.00 500.00 400.00 300.00 200.00 100.00 0.00 -100.00 -200.00 -300.00 2021-08 2021-09 2021-10 2021-11 2021-12 2022-01 2022-02 2022-03 2022-04 2022-05 2022-06 2022-07 2022-08 2022-09 2022-10 2022-11 2022-12 2023-01 2023-02 2023-03 2023-04 -400.00 : Delta 500.00 400.00 300.00 200.00 100.00 0.00 -100.00 -200.00 -300.00 : -400.00 : : : iFinD 2.2.3 7.40 7.20 7.00 6.80 6.60 6.40 6.20 2.2.5 7.600.08 7.40 0.06 7.20 0.04 7.00 6.80 0.02 0.00 (0.02) 6.60 (0.04) 6.40 (0.06) 6.20 2019-06-142020-06-142021-06-142022-06-14 CNH-CNYUSDCNHUSDCNY iFinD 2.2.4 69NDF6.9461 306 1 USDCNY25Delta (0.08) 2.2.6NDF 2.2.7USDCNY25Delta% 7.20 7.10 7.00 6.90 6.80 6.70 6.60 6.50 NDF(1Y)-USDCNH(USDCNH NDF(1Y) 0.0000 (0.0500) (0.1000) (0.1500) (0.2000) (0.2500) 0.8600 0.7600 0.6600 0.5600 0.4600 0.3600 0.2600 0.1600 0.0600 1M3M 6M9M 1Y1D 1W 0.6000 0.5000 0.4000 0.3000 0.2000 0.1000 0.0000 -0.1000 BloombergBloomberg 2.3 2.3.1 69 2306 7.1382 758 -26 273 2.3