南华国债期货周度报告：再论存款利率调降的潜在影响

6 10 526 62 MLF LPR 2023 Z0016413 gaoxiang@nawaa.com 1. 1.1 1.1 102.0 101.9 101.8 101.7 101.6 101.5 101.4 101.3 101.2 101.1 101.0 T2309.CFE(RHS)TF2309.CFE TS2309.CFETL2309.CFE 97.8 97.6 97.4 97.2 97.0 96.8 96.6 96.4 96.2 iFInd T2309101.8950.56%TF2309 102.0450.31%TS2306101.30.11%TL2309 97.580.87%3.37bp2.67% 10.13bp1.87% 1 iFind 1.2 26 62 5 MLF LPR 1.3 202241 4 10bp 20229810bpLPP 20224 5 6 8 1.2 Datayes MLF MLF LPR LPR “ ” “ ” 1.74% 1.8% “ ” 1.3 Ifind 1.4 Ifind 1.4 5 5 4.5% 902.1 -8% -7.9% -7.5% 659.1 -1.8% 8.5% 954.4 PMI 5CPI 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% -0.2% PPI - 4.6% -4.3% -3.6% -0.9% CPI3 267 2022PPI 1.5CPI 3.00CPIPPI 2.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00 Ifind -2.00 2. 2.1 2.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 ifind 2.2 2.2 40 35 30 25 20 15 ifind 2022-11-… 2022-11-… 2022-11-… 2022-11-… 2022-12-… 230006.IB 2022-12-… 5Y-2YBP 2022-12-… 2022-12-… 2023-01-… 2023-01-… T 2023-01-… 2023-01-… 2023-01-… 220025.IB 2023-02-… 10Y-5YBP 2023-02-… 2023-02-… 2023-02-… 2023-03-… 2023-03-… 2023-03-… 220010.IB 2023-03-… 2023-04-… 2023-04-… 2023-04-… 10Y-2YBP 2023-04-… 2023 2023-05-… 2023-05-… 2023-05-… 6 2023-05-… 2023-05-… 10 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40 6 2023-06-… 2023610 2.3 103.0 102.5 102.0 101.5 101.0 100.5 303.6 2TF-T 2TS-T() 303.4 303.2 303 302.8 302.6 302.4 302.2 302 ifind 7 2023610 / 136 310008 4008888910 www.nanhua.net 603093