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Dutch Inflation: Developments, Drivers, and the Risk of Wage-Price Spiral: NETHERLANDS

2023-03-13IMF从***

DutchInflation:Developments,Drivers,andtheRiskofWage-PriceSpiral NETHERLANDS SaioaArmendarizandAllaMyrvodaSIP/2023/021 IMFSelectedIssuesPapersarepreparedbyIMFstaffasbackgrounddocumentationforperiodicconsultationswithmembercountries.ItisbasedontheinformationavailableatthetimeitwascompletedonDecember16,2022.ThispaperisalsopublishedseparatelyasIMFCountryReportNo23/034. 2023 FEB ©2023InternationalMonetaryFundSIP/2023/021 IMFSelectedIssuesPaper EuropeanDepartment DutchInflation:Developments,Drivers,andtheRiskofWage-PriceSpiralPreparedbySaioaArmendarizandAllaMyrvoda AuthorizedfordistributionbyBernardinAkitobyFebruary2023 IMFSelectedIssuesPapersarepreparedbyIMFstaffasbackgrounddocumentationforperiodicconsultationswithmembercountries.ItisbasedontheinformationavailableatthetimeitwascompletedonDecember16,2022.ThispaperisalsopublishedseparatelyasIMFCountryReport No23/034. ABSTRACT:Globalinflationsurgedin2022,drivenbyhighgaspricegrowth.WithRussiabeingakeysupplierofenergyproducts,thestartofthewarinUkrainehasledtostronginflationarypressuresintheeuroarea(EA),giventheregion’ssignificantexposuretotheRussiangas.ThepriceshockhasbeenparticularlystrongintheNetherlands,largelyduetothelargershareofgasontheenergymixcomparedtootherpeers,makingthecountryvulnerabletochangingmarketconditions. Againstthisbackground,thispaperexploresthenatureoftherecentaccelerationofinflationintheNetherlands,takingintoconsiderationdifferentperspectives.Thefirstsectionpresentsdifferentmeasuresofinflationandthemethodologicaldiscrepanciesamongtheindicatorsconsidered.Secondly,thepaperpresentsanempiricalassessmentonthemaindriversofinflationthroughaPhillipsCurveestimation.ThethirdsectionanalysestheparticularitiesoftheDutchenergymixcomparedtootherEApeers,andthepass-throughfromwholesaletoretailgasandelectricityprices.Inaddition,asincreasinginflationhasraisedconcernsforapotentialwage-pricespiral,thefourthsectionpresentsempiricalevidenceonhowthedistributionofthetotalremunerationofproductivefactors-capital(profits)andlabor(wages)-workedinthepast.Finally,thepapersummarizesthemainfindingsofthestudyandfurtherpotentialareasforresearch. RECOMMENDEDCITATION:Armendariz,SaioaandMyrvoda,Alla.DutchInflation:Developments,Drivers,andtheRiskofWage-PriceSpiral.IMFSelectedIssuesPaper(SIP/2023/021).Washington,D.C.:InternationalMonetaryFund. JELClassificationNumbers: B55,C22,C82,E24,E31,E37,F60,J30,J39,J50,L10,L70,L94,L95,O10,Q02,Q40,Q43 Keywords: Inflation;energy;Phillipscurve;wages;profits;energymix;collectivebargaining;inflationmethodology;energypass-through Author’sE-MailAddress: SArmendariz@imf.organdAMyrvoda@imf.org INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND2 SELECTEDISSUESPAPERS DutchInflation:Developments,Drivers,andTheRiskofWage-PriceSpiral NETHERLANDS February8,2023 KINGDOMOFTHENETHERLANDS-THENETHERLANDS SELECTEDISSUES PreparedBySaioaArmendarizandAllaMyrvoda ApprovedBy EuropeanDepartment CONTENTS DUTCHINFLATION:DEVELOPMENTS,DRIVERS,ANDTHERISKOFWAGE-PRICESPIRAL2 A.DifferentMeasuresofInflation:AMethodologicalReview2 B.TheRoleofDomesticandGlobalFactors:AnEmpiricalAssessment7 C.WholesaleEnergyPricePass-Through9 D.ProfitsatRisk?BreakingDowntheGDPDeflator14 E.Conclusions19 FIGURES 1.DutchInflationDevelopments3 2.MeasuresofInflation6 3.EnergyConsumption,InflationDifferentialandGrowth7 4.PhillipsCurveCoefficientsforHeadlineandCoreInflation85.ImpliedContributiontoHeadlineandCoreInflation9 6.GasandElectricityPricesforHouseholds11 7.CoreInflationCompositionandEnergyPass-through12 8.NLDvsEA:GDPandULCComposition19 9.QuarterlyGDPDeflatorandULCCompositionintheNetherlands_20References_20 ANNEX I.PhillipsCurveSpecification22 DUTCHINFLATION:DEVELOPMENTS,DRIVERS,ANDTHERISKOFWAGE-PRICESPIRAL Globalinflationsurgedin2022,drivenbyhighgaspricegrowth.WithRussiabeingakeysupplierofenergyproducts,thestartofthewarinUkrainehasledtostronginflationarypressuresintheeuroarea(EA),giventheregion’ssignificantexposuretotheRussiangas.ThepriceshockhasbeenparticularlystrongintheNetherlands,largelyduetothelargershareofgasontheenergymixcomparedtootherpeers,makingthecountryvulnerabletochangingmarketconditions. Againstthisbackground,thispaperexploresthenatureoftherecentaccelerationofinflationintheNetherlands,takingintoconsiderationdifferentperspectives.Thefirstsectionpresentsdifferentmeasuresofinflationandthemethodologicaldiscrepanciesamongtheindicatorsconsidered. Secondly,thepaperpresentsanempiricalassessmentonthemaindriversofinflationthroughaPhillipsCurveestimation.ThethirdsectionanalysestheparticularitiesoftheDutchenergymixcomparedtootherEApeers,andthepass-throughfromwholesaletoretailgasandelectricityprices.Inaddition,asincreasinginflationhasraisedconcernsforapotentialwage-pricespiral,thefourthsectionpresentsempiricalevidenceonhowthedistributionofthetotalremunerationofproductivefactors-capital(profits)andlabor(wages)-workedinthepast.Finally,thepapersummarizesthemainfindingsofthestudyandfurtherpotentialareasforresearch. A.DifferentMeasuresofInflation:AMethodologicalReview 1.In2022,theDutchheadlineinflationreachedunpreceden

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