自动化、全球价值链和功能专业化

No2023-05–March WorkingPaper Automation,GlobalValueChains andFunctionalSpecialization LionelFontagné,AriellReshef,GianlucaSantoni&GiulioVannelli Highlights Westudyhowtechnologyadoptionandchangesinglobalvaluechain(GVC)integrationjointlyaffectlaborsharesandbusinessfunctionspecializationinasampleof14manufacturingindustriesin14Europeancountriesin1999–2011. WehighlighttheindirecteffectofrobotizationonrelativedemandforlaborviaGVCintegrationaswedonotfindanydirecteffectsofrobotadoption.Robotizationaffectslaboronlyindirectly,byincreasingupstream,forwardGVCintegration.Inthissenserobotizationis“upstream-biased”. WealsostudynovelchannelsthroughwhichrapidrobotizationinChinashapedrobotizationinEuropeand,therefore,GVCparticipation.ThishighlightsanunderstudiedwaybywhichtheglobalintegrationofChinahasaffectedrelativedemandforlaborinitstradingpartners. CEPIIWorkingPaperAutomation,GlobalValueChainsandFunctionalSpecialization Abstract Westudyhowtechnologyadoptionandchangesinglobalvaluechain(GVC)integrationjointlyaffectlaborsharesandbusinessfunctionspecializationinasampleof14manufacturingindustriesin14Europeancountriesin1999–2011.OurmaincontributionistohighlighttheindirecteffectofrobotizationonrelativedemandforlaborviaGVCintegration.Todothis,wedevelopamethodologytoseparatelyaccountforrobotsinthetotalcapitalstock.Increasesinupstream,forwardGVCparticipationdirectlyreducelaborshares,mostlythroughreductionsinfabrication,butalsoviamanagement,marketingandR&Dbusinessfunctions.Wedonotfindanydirecteffectsofrobotadoption;robotizationaffectslaboronlyindirectly,byincreasingupstream,forwardGVCintegration.Inthissenserobotizationis“upstream-biased”.WealsostudynovelchannelsthroughwhichrapidrobotizationinChinashapedrobotizationinEuropeand,therefore,GVCparticipation.ThishighlightsanunderstudiedwaybywhichtheglobalintegrationofChinahasaffectedrelativedemandforlaborinitstradingpartners. Keywords LaborShare,FunctionalSpecialization,GlobalValueChains,Upstreamness,TechnologicalChange,Automation,Robots. JEL E25,F14,F16,033. WorkingPaper ©CEPII,PARIS,2023 Centred’étudesprospectives etd’informationsinternationales 20,avenuedeSégurTSA10726 75334ParisCedex07 contact@cepii.fr www.cepii.fr–@CEPII_ParisPresscontact:presse@cepii.fr CEPIIWorkingPaper Contributingtoresearchininternationaleconomics CEPII(Centred’ÉtudesProspectivesetd’InformationsInternationales)isaFrenchinstitutededicatedtoproducingindependent,policy-orientedeconomicresearchhelpfultounderstandtheinternationaleconomicenvironmentandchallengesintheareasoftradepolicy,competitiveness,macroeconomics,internationalfinanceandgrowth. EDITORIALDIRECTOR: AntoineBouët VISUALDESIGNANDPRODUCTION: LaureBoivin ISSN1293-2574 March2023 Tosubscribeto TheCEPIINewsletter: www.cepii.fr/KeepInformed Allrightsreserved.Opinionsexpressedinthispublicationarethoseoftheauthor(s)alone. Automation,GlobalValueChainsandFunctionalSpecialization* LionelFontagn´e BankofFrance,CEPII&PSE AriellReshef CNRS,Universit´eParis1Panth´eon-Sorbonne,PSE,andCEPII GianlucaSantoni CEPII GiulioVannelli Universit´eParisDauphine-PSL(LEDa) 1Introduction CountriesandindustriesthatintegrateintoGlobalValueChains(GVCs)gainbyspecializinginproductionstepsinwhichtheyhaveacomparativeadvantage,whilepotentiallyoffshoringotherstagesofthechain.Thesechangesmaymanifestinspecializinginrelativelymoredownstreamactivities,i.e.closertofinalstagesofproductionandassembly—ormoreupstreamactivities,i.e.,productionofintermediateinputs.Indeed,GVCintegrationisconsideredoneofthemostimportantdimensionsofglobalizationinrecentdecades(e.g.,Johnson2018). Beyondtheirmanifestationintrade(andinternationalownership)patterns,changesinGVCintegrationalsoimpactpaymentstodomesticprimaryproductionfactors.Laborandcapitalintensitiesvarysystematicallyacrossstagesofproduction(Antr`as,Chor,Fally&Hillberry2012).Laborshares,aswellasbusinessfunction(ortask)intensities,alsovarywithinvaluechains(Reshef&Santoni2022).Thus,GVCintegrationaffectsbusinessfunctionspecializationandtheoverallfunctionaldivisionofincome. Technologicalchangeplaysanequallyimportantroleindeterminingtheseevolutions.First,ithasadirecteffectbycomplementingorsubstitutinglabor—bothoverallanddifferentiallyacrossspecificlabortasks.Second,itmayhaveanindirecteffectonpaymentstolaborandonfunctionalspecializationthroughitsimpactonchangesinthepatternofspecializationacrossstagesofproduction.Characterizingthisindirectchannel—bywhichtechnologyadoptionaffectslaborthroughitsimpactonthepositionwithinGVCs—isoneimportantcontributionofthispaper.Indoingso,wepayspecialattentiontotheroleofChinaininducingtheindirectmechanism,sincetheglobalintegrationofChinaisoneofthemostimportanteconomiceventsduringourperiodofstudy.WefindevidenceforanovelchannelthroughwhichChinahasaffectedGVCintegrationand,throughthis,relativedemandforlabor:byinducingrobotizationinEurope. *LionelFontagn´e:lionel.fontagne@banque-france.fr;AriellReshef:ariell.reshef@psemail.eu;GianlucaSantoni:gian-luca.santoni@cepii.fr;GiulioVannelli:giulio.vannelli@dauphine.psl.eu. Thisproje