月度油脂油料行情回顾及展望：当下市场的驱动

期货研究报告|商品研究 当下市场的驱动 ——月度油脂油料行情回顾及展望 •王真军 •wangzhenjun@cmschina.com.cn •联系电话：13924066125 •执业资格号：Z0010289 2023年03月02日 目录 contents 01市场核心观点 02市场逻辑推演 03市场价格的反馈及观点 阿根廷大豆产量（千吨）布交所产量预估（千吨） 60,000 50,000 40,000 60,000 51,00051,00051,00051,00051,00051,00049,50049,500 45,500 41,000 48,000 41,000 41,000 38,000 33,500 50,000 40,000 30,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22 Nov-22 Jan-23 20,000 10,000 0 12月1月2月 2月2月 阿根廷大豆优良率（%） 20/2119/2021/2222/2318/1917/18 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 8-Dec22-Dec5-Jan19-Jan2-Feb16-Feb2-Mar16-Mar30-Mar13-Apr Cost-of-productionforecastsformajorU.S.fieldcrops,2022F-2023F1 Corn Soybeans Wheat Cotton Rice Peanuts Sorghum Oats Barley Item 2022F 2023F 2022F2023F 2022F2023F 2022F2023F 2022F2023F 2022F2023F 2022F2023F 2022F2023F 2022F2023F Dollarsperplantedacre Operatingcosts Seed 94.11 97.52 62.74 65.01 14.71 15.24 84.98 88.06 91.37 94.68 118.68 122.98 13.99 14.50 18.77 19.45 20.73 21.48 Fertilizer2 217.36 211.89 55.03 53.65 83.17 81.08 120.54 117.51 180.41 175.87 127.08 123.88 69.90 68.14 74.09 72.23 83.12 81.03 Chemicals 40.03 37.18 44.23 41.08 19.55 18.16 87.02 80.83 111.80 103.84 152.04 141.22 34.83 32.35 8.57 7.96 26.30 24.43 Customoperations3 25.25 26.11 14.08 14.56 15.40 15.93 29.28 30.28 104.82 108.41 81.89 84.69 19.57 20.24 10.62 10.98 6.65 6.88 Fuel,lube,andelectricity 47.88 40.06 24.39 20.40 18.74 15.68 55.50 46.43 123.01 102.91 80.12 67.02 17.20 14.39 31.48 26.34 25.47 21.31 Repairs 41.33 42.11 34.22 34.87 29.95 30.52 52.94 53.94 60.55 61.69 70.88 72.22 30.63 31.21 31.68 32.28 33.44 34.07 Othervariableexpenses4 0.30 0.31 0.01 0.01 0.86 0.89 93.50 97.24 14.76 15.26 0.84 0.87 0.17 0.18 2.41 2.49 2.79 2.89 Interestonoperatingcapital 2.19 4.62 1.10 2.33 0.86 1.80 2.46 5.22 3.23 6.73 2.97 6.22 0.88 1.84 0.83 1.74 0.93 1.95 Total,operatingcosts 468.46 459.81 235.80 231.91 183.25 179.30 526.21 519.50 689.93 669.38 634.49 619.10 187.17 182.84 178.46 173.48 199.44 194.04 Allocatedoverhead Hiredlabor 5.94 6.17 5.66 5.87 4.67 4.84 23.12 23.99 37.94 39.37 24.55 25.47 4.67 4.84 2.80 2.91 4.80 4.98 Opportunitycostofunpaidlabor 34.09 35.36 19.78 20.53 19.92 20.67 23.25 24.12 96.46 100.08 66.35 68.84 18.75 19.45 67.44 69.97 18.34 19.03 Capitalrecoveryofmachineryandequipment 171.07 166.38 144.22 140.26 131.29 127.69 184.69 179.62 189.69 184.49 237.61 231.09 140.16 136.31 148.39 144.32 146.02 142.02 Opportunitycostofland(rentalrate) 165.25 165.25 156.71 156.71 62.80 62.80 86.92 86.92 152.91 152.91 100.21 100.21 57.72 57.72 101.91 101.91 79.19 79.19 Taxesandinsurance 14.04 14.24 13.75 13.95 7.26 7.37 9.52 9.65 21.01 21.31 29.31 29.73 10.77 10.93 7.47 7.58 12.59 12.77 Generalfarmoverhead 22.77 23.20 21.74 22.15 10.88 11.08 16.58 16.90 32.31 32.93 57.88 58.98 16.66 16.97 16.16 16.46 22.11 22.53 Total,allocatedcosts 413.16 410.60 361.86 359.47 236.82 234.45 344.08 341.20 530.33 531.08 515.91 514.32 248.73 246.23 344.18 343.16 283.05 280.51 Total,costslisted 881.62 870.41 597.66 591.38 420.06 413.75 870.29 860.70 1220.27 1200.47 1150.40 1133.42 435.89 429.07 522.64 516.63 482.49 474.55 Yield 173.36 181.53 49.55 52.0185 46.48 49.14 Price 6.70 6.31 14.30 14.92 9.00 9.00 NetValue 279.89 275.04 110.87 184.73 -1.75 28.52 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 种植面积（千英亩） 82,700 83,400 90,200 89,200 76,100 83,400 87,200 87,500 87,500 收获面积 81,800 82,700 89,500 87,600 74,900 82,600 86,300 86,300 86,700 起初库存 191 197 302 438 909 525 257 274 225 产量（百万蒲氏耳） 3,926 4,296 4,412 4,428 3,552 4,216 4,465 4,276 4,510 进口 24 22 22 14 15 20 16 15 15 总供应 4,141 4,515 4,736 4,880 4,476 4,761 4,738 4,565 4,750 压榨 1,886 1,899 2,055 2,092 2,165 2,141 2,204 2,230 2,310 出口 1,936 2,174 2,134 1,748 1,682 2,266 2,158 1,990 2,025 食用消费 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 种用残值 122 140 109 131 104 97 102 120 126 总需求 3,944 4,213 4,298 3,971 3,951 4,504 4,464 4,340 4,461 美豆库存 197 302 438 909 525 257 274 225 289 库存消费比 5.0% 7.2% 10.2% 22.9% 13.3% 5.7% 6.1% 5.2% 6.5% 大豆单产 48.0 51.9 49.3 50.5 47.4 51.0 51.7 49.5 52.0 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 巴西大豆收割进度 Ave-5201720182019 2020202120222023 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 巴西3月基差(美分/吨) 2016201720182019202020212022 10% 0% 24-Jan7-Feb21-Feb6-Mar20-Mar3-Apr17-Apr1-May 1-Aug1-Sep1-Oct1-Nov1-Dec1-Jan1-Feb 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 沿海大豆库存（千吨） ‘16/17‘17/18‘18/19 ‘19/20‘20/21‘21/22‘22/23 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 ‘14/15 ’17/18‘20/21 ‘15/16 ‘18/19‘21/22 ‘16/17 ‘19/20‘22/23 沿海豆粕库存（千吨） 0 8-Oct8-Nov8-Dec8-Jan8-Feb8-Mar8-Apr8-May8-Jun8-Jul8-Aug8-Sep 8-Oct8-Nov8-Dec8-Jan8-Feb8-Mar8-Apr8-May8-Jun8-Jul8-Aug8-Sep NationalimportSoyas-d2022/20232023/2/28 In'000MtsOct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 合计 同比 Carry-in6,927LoanFromReserve 3,763 3,613 3,073 4,393 4,393 3,593 4,893 ImportdataoflastweekImport4,136 7,350 10,560 8,220 6,600 5,800 8,200 11,000 TotalSupply(a)11,063 11,113 14,173 11,293 10,993 10,193 11,793 15,893 供给增量Crush(Est) 7,200 7,400 9,000 5,800 6,500 6,500 6,800 8,200 HumanConsumption 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 ReturnToRese