部门再分配的通货膨胀效应（英）

BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystemInternationalFinanceDiscussionPapers ISSN1073-2500(Print) ISSN2767-4509(Online) Number1369 February2023 TheInflationaryEffectsofSectoralReallocation FrancescoFerrante,SebastianGravesandMatteoIacoviello Pleasecitethispaperas: Ferrante,Ferrante,SebastianGravesandMatteoIacoviello(2023). “TheIn- flationaryEffectsofSectoralReallocation,”InternationalFinanceDiscussionPa- pers1369.Washington:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem,https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2023.1369. NOTE:InternationalFinanceDiscussionPapers(IFDPs)arepreliminarymaterialscirculatedtostimu-latediscussionandcriticalcomment.TheanalysisandconclusionssetfortharethoseoftheauthorsanddonotindicateconcurrencebyothermembersoftheresearchstaffortheBoardofGovernors.ReferencesinpublicationstotheInternationalFinanceDiscussionPapersSeries(otherthanacknowledgement)shouldbeclearedwiththeauthor(s)toprotectthetentativecharacterofthesepapers.RecentIFDPsareavailableontheWebatwww.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/.ThispapercanbedownloadedwithoutchargefromtheSocialScienceResearchNetworkelectroniclibraryatwww.ssrn.com. TheInflationaryEffectsofSectoralReallocation⋆ FrancescoFerrantea,SebastianGravesa,MatteoIacovielloa aFederalReserveBoard,UnitedStates February13,2023 Abstract TheCOVID-19pandemichasledtoanunprecedentedshiftofconsumptionfromser-vicestogoods.Westudythisdemandreallocationinamulti-sectormodelfeaturingstickyprices,input-outputlinkages,andlaborreallocationcosts.Reallocationcostshampertheincreaseinthesupplyofgoods,causinginflationarypressures.Thesepressuresareamplifiedbythefactthatgoodspricesaremoreflexiblethanservicesprices.Weestimatethemodelallowingfordemandreallocation,sectoralproductiv-ity,andaggregatelaborsupplyshocks.ThedemandreallocationshockexplainsalargeportionoftheriseinU.S.inflationintheaftermathofthepandemic. Keywords:SectoralReallocation,Inflation,Input-OutputModels,Moment-matchingexercise JEL:E10,E17,E31,E32,E37 ⋆WearegratefultoAmbrogioCesa-Bianchi,MichaelWeber,MishelGhassibe,andOmarRachediforinsightfuldiscussionsofourpaper.WealsothankAndreaPrestipinoandJohannesPfeiferfor numerousconversationsaswellasseminarparticipantsatUBC,theMidwestMacroeconomicsConference,theFederalReserveBoard,theBankofFinland,theParisSchoolofEconomics,theFederalReserveBankofCleveland,theEuropeanCommissionandtheDNBforhelpfulcomments.WearealsogratefultoMichaelWeberandRaphaelSchoenleforsharingdataonthefrequencyofpriceadjustmentacrossindustries.Allerrorsandomissionsareourown.TheviewsexpressedinthispaperaresolelytheresponsibilityoftheauthorsandshouldnotbeinterpretedasreflectingtheviewsoftheBoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystemorofanyoneelseassociatedwiththeFederalReserveSystem. Emailaddresses:francesco.ferrante@frb.gov(FrancescoFerrante),sebastian.h.graves@frb.gov(SebastianGraves),matteo.iacoviello@frb.gov(MatteoIacoviello) 1.Introduction TheCOVID-19pandemichasledtoalarge,abrupt,andunprecedentedincreaseinthedemandforgoodsrelativetoservicesintheUnitedStates,interruptingaseculardeclineintheshareofspendingongoods.Apopularnarrativeisthatthissuddenreallocationofdemandhasstrainedsupplychains,leadingtobottlenecksandlaborshortagesinanumberofkeysectors,thuscontributingtoabuildupofinflationaryforces.Figure1illustratestherecentbehaviorofconsumption,inflation,andemploymentintheU.S.economy.Theshareofconsumptionexpendituresongoodsrosefrom31percentinthelastquarterof2019tomorethan35percentbythemiddleof2021,andhasremainedhighthereafter.1PersonalConsumptionExpendi-turesinflationreachedalmostsixpercentbytheendof2021,primarilydrivenbyasurgeingoodsinflation,whileservicesinflationhasbeenmoremuted.Finally,em-ploymentcollapsedandrebounded,remainingsignificantlybelowthepre-pandemictrendbytheendofthesample,drivenbyadeclineinlabormarketparticipation.Figure2showsthattheseaggregatemovementsmaskevenlargermovementsinmoredisaggregateddata,illustratinghowtheCOVID-19pandemichasbeenaccompaniedbyanunprecedentedincreaseinthedispersionofoutput,prices,andemploymentacrossindustries. Inthispaper,wedevelopamulti-sectorNewKeynesianmodeloftheU.S.econ-omytoquantifytheaggregateandcross-sectionalimplicationsofthisreallocationofdemand.Themodelfeaturesinput-outputlinkagesbetweensectors,heterogeneityinsectoralpricerigidity,andcostsofreallocatinginputsacrosssectors.2Inpar-ticular,weassumethatfirmsfaceconvexhiringcostswhenincreasingtheirlaborinput;asourmodeldoesnotincludecapital,thesehiringcostscaptureavarietyoffrictionsaffectingafirm’sabilitytoexpanditsproductivecapacity.Basedontheaggregateandcross-sectionaldevelopmentsoutlinedinFigures1and2,weallowforthreeshocks:apreferenceshockthatalterstherelativedemandforgoodsandservices;sectoralproductivityshocks;andanaggregatelaborsupplyshock.Usingaggregateandcross-sectionaldata,wethenestimatetheparametersgoverninghiringcostsandproductionfunctionelasticitiesaswellasthesizeoftheaggregatelaborsupplyshock.Theestimatedmodelallowsustoquantifytherolethateachshockhasplayedindrivingaggregateandcross-sectionaldevelopmentsintheaftermathoftheCOVID-19pande