2022年业绩预告点评：Q4组件出货和盈利继续提升，23年看好量利双升

TrinaSolar!6885993 EquityResearch•CompanyResearch•PVEquipment 2022earningsestimatequicktake:TrinaSolar’sprofitandPVmoduleshipmentswereontherisein22Q4,andthetrendwilllikelycontinuein2023Buy(Maintain) 30January2023 ResearchAnalystRuibinChen(852)39823212 chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk PriceMovement Forecast&Valuation 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E Revenue(RMBmn) 44,480 91,585 123,644 154,793 Growth(YoY%) 51% 106% 35% 25% Netprofit(RMBmn) 1,804 3,748 7,136 9,648 Growth(YoY%) 47% 108% 90% 35% EPS(RMB) 0.83 1.73 3.29 4.45 P/E(X) 86.18 41.49 21.79 16.12 31% 24% 17% 10% 3% TrinaSolarCSI300 InvestmentThesis Event:TrinaSolar(TS)releasedits2022earningsestimate.TS’s2022profitincreasedby90-123%YoYtoRmb3.42-4.02bn,andits22Q4profitincreasedby57%-150%YoY(-10%-43%QoQ)toRmb1.02-1.62bn.TS'sasset(powerstation)impairmentlosswasRmb800-900mn,andexchangelosswasaboutRmb200mnin22Q4.TS’sinvestmentincomefromsiliconwaferswasaboutRmb0.8-1bn,whichbasicallyoffsetsits -4% -11% -18% -25% -32% 2022/01/102022/05/112022/09/092023/01/08 MarketData impairmentandexchangelosses. TS’sPVmoduleshipmentsincreasedrapidlyandtheprofitperwattreachedanewhigh.WeestimatethatTS’sPVmoduleshipmentshaveincreasedby75%YoYto43GWin2022andreached13GWin22Q4.Weestimatethattheprofitperwatthasincreased Closingprice(RMB)71.68 52-weekRange(RMB)42.82/88.33 P/B(X)6.37 by0.01Rmb/WQoQto0.09Rmb/W,bringingprofitofRmb1.1-1.2bnin22Q4.Therecordprofitperwattwasmainlyduetothereductioninpolysiliconwaferpricesandfreightrates.TSexpectthatitsPVmoduleshipmentswillincreaseby50%YoYto60-65GWin2023.WeareoptimisticaboutTS’sprofitabilityin2023:1)Highly-priced existingordersandrapidlydecreasingrawmaterialpriceswillhelpimproveprofitability; FloatingMarketCap(RMBmn) BasicData 94,922.87 2)WeexpectTS'sTOPConcellstoshipabout20GWin2023andenjoyanewtechnologypremium;3)Wafercapacityexpansionhelpsreducecosts. TS’sdistributedsystemishighlyprofitable,andenergystoragebusinesshasbeguntoturnlossesintoprofits.WeexpectthatTS’sdistributedsystemhasshipped6-6.5GWin2022and2GW+in22Q4withprofitperwattat0.16Rmb/W.WiththeexpecteddeclineofPVmodulepricesin2023,IRRofdistributedPVsystemwilllikelyincrease.WeexpectthatTS’sdistributedPVsystemshipmentwillincreaseby45%+YoYto9-10GW.TS’ssolarpanelmountshaveshipped4.3-4.5GWin2022,ofwhich1.7-1.8GWoftrackingmounts.WeexpectthatTS’ssolarpanelmountshipmentswillincreaseby100%+YoYto7-8GWin2023.TS’senergystoragebusinessmainlyengagesinthefieldofdomesticlarge-scaleenergystorage.TS’senergystorageproductshipmentsin2022were1.8-2GWh,andin22Q4quicklyreachedalargevolumeofabout1.5GWh,turninglossesintoprofits.WeexpectthatTS’senergystorageproductsshipmentswillbeabout3-4GWhin2023,generatingpositiveprofits. EarningsForecast&Rating:WemaintainBuyratingwithTPatRmb98.7(correspondingtoPEratioat30xin2023),consideringTS’squicklyincreasingshipmentsofPVmodulesandenergystorageproducts.WereviseupTS’searningforecastandexpectthatthenetprofitwillincreaseby108%/90%/35%YoYtoRmb3.75/7.14/9.65bn(previousvalueatRmb3.70/6.61/9.06bn)in2022/2023/2024respectively. Risks:Weaker-than-expectedpolicysupport,intensifiedmarketcompetition. BVPS(RMB)11.25 Liabilities/Assets(%)69.79 TotalIssuedShares(mn)2,169.33 SharesOutstanding(mn)1,324.26 Relatedreports 23456(688599)7202289 :;<=7>?@ABCDEFGHI.8JBKLM 2022-10-31 23456(688599)720228N ;<=7OPQRSTGUV"CDWIM 2022-08-26 SoochowSecuritiesInternationalBrokerageLimitedwouldliketoacknowledgethecontributionandsupportprovidedbySoochowResearchInstitute,andinparticularitsemployeesDuohongZeng(!¿#)$Yaochen(%&)andYananGuo('()). 1/6 #$%&!6885993 "#$n&'•()*+&'•,-./ 2022!"#$%&ƒ(Q4)*+,-./012 3423!567/83 9:;<=> !"#$%&' 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E ()*+,-6/01 44,480 91,585 123,644 154,793 23 51% 106% 35% 25% 456789":-6/01 1,804 3,748 7,136 9,648 23 47% 108% 90% 35% ;<+=->?<@ffiB-0/<1 0.83 1.73 3.29 4.45 P/E-Cffi&>?<@ffiB1 86.18 41.49 21.79 16.12 XYZ< 2023*01+30I #$-./ 012 (852)39823212 chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk [P7\]^_20228`VabcG\]bdefghiBj34.2-40.2 klGmT90%-123%GnoghiBj32.1-38.0klGmT107%-146%pqN2022Q4ghiBj10.2-16.2klGmT57%-150%G?T-10%-43%GnoghiBj9.7-15.6klGmT69%-171%G?T-11%-43%p\]2022Q4rstYuvdwxyz[8-9klG|]z[~2klGÀÄÀÅÇXYÉÑ~8-10klGÖÜfiàxyt|] èê01 z[GâäãxyàåGVaçéèêbëp É2¶(l) 71.68 Q4OPQRSTíìîBjïñóSòôöbd\]20228OPQR ¡834/3S¶ 42.82/88.33 ~43GWGmT~75%GqN2022Q4QR13GWGôöëúìîAB90/WùûG?üwL10G†°11-12klBjGìîABñóSG èiƒ(‡) 6.37 ¢Z£§ÀÄÀÅ•¶tß®©•p20238\]bdOPQR 56A-èy(7 94,922.87 60-65GWGmT50%GHIAB™DwL7´¨Ñ/ÆØ≠Ķ±êÛ 8l) ©•G£¥S¶µìÜÆABwL,!ôöbd20238\]TOPConQR20GWùûG=¨óªºª¶,æÀÅu6fi¿ÜÆ¡¬\ƒwLG Ö901 ëÜ®«©•G»…OPJBKLò :-iYu(l) 11.25  0_ ÀÃSABíÕ6Œœ–J—“DAòôöbd20228\]0 YÜ;<ƒ(%) 69.79 -¶h/ _ ÀÃQR6-6.5GWGqN2022Q4QR2GW+GìîAB‘C~0.16 =-Ü(78-) 2,169.33 l/WG†°2-3klBj,20238OP•¶G0_ ÉуwLGèê’¡÷fiyGôöbd\]Œ^9-10GWGmT45%+pLŸ20228 56A-(78-) 1,324.26 QR4.3-4.5GWGqN⁄¤LŸ1.7-1.8GWG‹ü~D40%G2022Q4LŸQR~1.3-1.5GWGA“›fi,ôöbd20238QR7-8GWGmü >?@A fl‡T·p\]Õ6‚„‰yÕD¢G2022Q4/JÂÛGQR~1.5GWhG—“DAGôöbd20228QR1.8-2GWhG20238„‰ÊÁË^ÈGôöbdQR3-4GWhGÍefAB†°p 23456(688599)7202289:;<=7>?@ABCDE  ABbëÎXY=Ï7Ö§\]OPQRSTGÌÓ0_ SABGÕ6V"–JGôö/Ô2022-20248\]ABbëGôöbd\] FGHI.8JBKLM 202