贵金属周报：通胀预期上升或使贵金属回调，白银相对黄金仍然短缺

2012669 20221204 F3048194 Z0015547 qutao@citicsf.com 1130 1250bp1212 2.43% 21.7-22/ 4900 1213-14 1.2. / 409.72 407.60 2.12 0.52% comex / 1811.40 1755.00 56.40 3.21% / -0.23 -2.19 1.96 -89.50% / 0.68 3.03 -2.36 -77.69% COMEX 752.78 760.53 -7.76 -1.02% SPDRETF 905.49 908.96 -3.47 -0.38% CFTC 110003.00 116113.00 -6110.00 -5.26% -10 % 3.51 3.68 -0.17 -4.62% -10 % 1.08 1.36 -0.28 -20.59% 10 % 2.43 2.32 0.11 4.74% 77.83 81.85 -4.02 -4.91% 500 4071.70 4026.12 45.58 1.13% VIX % 19.06 20.50 -1.44 -7.02% 104.52 106.09 -1.57 -1.48% / 5221.00 4935.00 286.00 5.80% comex / 23.36 21.48 1.88 8.75% / -50.00 -34.00 -16.00 47.06% / -52.94 -15.49 -37.45 241.80% COMEX 9639.88 9546.54 93.35 0.98% SPDRETF 14793.01 14933.32 -140.31 -0.94% CFTC 17483.00 16766.00 717.00 4.28% COMEX 9639.88 9546.54 93.35 0.98% iShare 14793.01 14933.32 -140.31 -0.94% 77.83 81.85 -4.02 -4.91% 12 4.4%4.6%120.75%0.5%4.5% : :ISM: (ISM): PMI PMI % :CPI: :30 cpi : :: : /CS :20 111122323 V.S. 7012 4 350 6510 300 608 556 504 452 250 200 150 100 50 40 2018/012018/082019/032019/102020/052020/122021/072022/022022/09 00 2016/052017/022017/112018/082019/052020/022020/112021/082022/05 ETF SPDRETF 2100 /Comex %-1.5 5% 7% 5%-5.25% 1700/ 1200 1140 1080 1020 960 900 80000 SPDRETF 73000 66000 59000 52000 45000 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 10- -0.8 -0.1 0.6 1.3 2.0 20.4-21 / 2021/102022/012022/042022/072022/10 SLVETF ETF SLVETF 23000 21000 19000 17000 19000 16250 13500 100 95 90 85 2022/052022/072022/092022/11 10 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 15000 1075080 2.2 13000 800075 2.0 2021/102022/012022/042022/072022/10 2022/092022/092022/102022/112022/12 9 9 97 Comex1292 Comex87 LBMAETF82 265003566677 2.92 2.74 2.56 2.38 ETFiShare 15000 72 11000 2022/052022/062022/072022/082022/092022/10 2.20 LBMA 920 760 600 440 280 120 -40 -200 13000 COMEX 12000 11000 10000 9000 8000 7000 LBMA- 50000COMEX- 44000 38000 32000 26000 20000 2018/092019/042019/112020/062021/012021/082022/032022/10 13000 12000 11000 10000 9000 8000 2019/052019/112020/052020/112021/052021/112022/052022/11 2024 20241 2%20242FOMC 3.75%-4.00%5.00%-5.25% 31210 1250bp12CPI50bp % 12 4.55 4.50 4.45 4.40 4.35 4.30 4.25 4.20 4.15 4.10 2022-09-22 2022-10-12 2022-11-01 2022-11-21 2022-12-11 1252.3bp %2022/12/2% 2022/11/252022/11/2 2022/10/4 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 -0.05 -0.10 -0.15 -0.20 -0.25 -0.30 2022/12/12023/3/12023/6/12023/9/12023/12/1 5.0 4.86 4.92 4.89 4.84 4.71 4.75 4.60 4.35 4.43 4.25 4.5 4.0 3.5 PMI11 11ISMPMI2020411 ISMPMI4949.750.247.2 48.549.251.552.3 3 52.550.9 11MarkitPMI :MarkitPMI::MarkitPMI:: 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 11ISM :ISM:PMI:(ISM):PMI 75 2020/012020/072021/012021/072022/012022/07 :ISM:PMI: :ISM:PMI: 80 70 6570 6060 55 5050 4540 40 30 35 3020 :(ISM):PMI :ISM:PMI: 2020-012020-052020-102021-022021-072021-122022-042022-092023-012018/012018/082019/032019/102020/052020/122021/072022/022022/09 10 10101.3% 1%0.0% 0.7%0.3% 10 2020-01=1 1.6 1.5 81.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 10 1.0 0.9 0.8 15 10 5 0 -5 2020/012020/052020/092021/012021/052021/092022/012022/052022/09 % 2022-102022-092022-082022-07 Prodco % 4 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 640 430 220 010 0 -2 -10 -4 -20 -6-30 -40 -50 -60 2020/012020/052020/102021/032021/082022/012022/062022/11 WindBloomberg8 &PCE 1010+0.7% +0.7%+0.8% 10PCE % 5% 10PCE10PCE0.3%PCE 0.3% 10CPI2% 8 6% 7 6 0.2%5 4 3 0.4%2 1 0 -1 -2 :PCE::PCE: 10 2000/102003/102006/102009/102012/102015/102018/102021/10 %3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 %1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 (0.5) (1.0) (1.5) (2.0) (2.5) (3.0) 2021/05 : ::: 2021/08 2021/11 2022/02 2022/05 2022/08 2022/32022/42022/52022/62022/72022/82022/92022/10 9 10 2020-01=1::::% :::1 10 10 63.27.5% 15.2%30 107.08%1117 6.61% 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 :::: :30 0 1300 1 1200 2 1100 3 41000 5900 6800 7700 8600 :::5 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 : : 10 1 5 10 2020-012020-072021-022021-082022-032022-092023-042018/012019/012020/012021/012022/01 101425 14104.2% 105 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 25 22 17 11 4 -5 -9 -24 -21 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 22 17 11 4 -5 -9 -24 -21 WindBloomberg10 / 8 131301-130514 518048 400-990-8826