粮食展望：全球食品市场半年期报告（英）

ISSN0251-1959 FoodOutlook BIANNUALREPORTONGLOBALFOODMARKETS 45 130 2022 2021 115 November2022 FoodOutlook BIANNUALREPORTONGLOBALFOODMARKETS FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNationsRome,2022 Requiredcitation: FAO.2022.FoodOutlook–BiannualReportonGlobalFoodMarkets.FoodOutlook,November2022.Rome.https://doi.org/10.4060/cc2864en ThedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterialinthisinformationproductdonotimplytheexpressionofanyopinionwhatsoeveronthepartoftheFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)concerningthelegalordevelopmentstatusofanycountry,territory,cityorareaorofitsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationofitsfrontiersorboundaries.Thementionofspecificcompaniesorproductsofmanufacturers,whetherornotthesehavebeenpatented,doesnotimplythatthesehavebeenendorsedorrecommendedbyFAOinpreferencetoothersofasimilarnaturethatarenotmentioned. Theviewsexpressedinthisinformationproductarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsorpoliciesofFAO. ISSN0251-1959[print] ISSN1560-8182[online] ISBN978-92-5-137171-8 ©FAO,2022 Somerightsreserved.ThisworkismadeavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike3.0IGOlicence(CCBY-NC-SA3.0IGO;https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/igo/legalcode). Underthetermsofthislicence,thisworkmaybecopied,redistributedandadaptedfornon-commercialpurposes,providedthattheworkisappropriatelycited.Inanyuseofthiswork,thereshouldbenosuggestionthatFAOendorsesanyspecificorganization,productsorservices.TheuseoftheFAOlogoisnotpermitted.Iftheworkisadapted,thenitmustbelicensedunderthesameorequivalentCreativeCommonslicence.Ifatranslationofthisworkiscreated,itmustincludethefollowingdisclaimeralongwiththerequiredcitation:“ThistranslationwasnotcreatedbytheFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO).FAOisnotresponsibleforthecontentoraccuracyofthistranslation.Theoriginal[Language]editionshallbetheauthoritativeedition.” DisputesarisingunderthelicencethatcannotbesettledamicablywillberesolvedbymediationandarbitrationasdescribedinArticle8ofthelicenceexceptasotherwiseprovidedherein.TheapplicablemediationruleswillbethemediationrulesoftheWorldIntellectualPropertyOrganizationhttp://www.wipo.int/amc/en/mediation/rulesandanyarbitrationwillbeconductedinaccordancewiththeArbitrationRulesoftheUnitedNationsCommissiononInternationalTradeLaw(UNCITRAL). Third-partymaterials.Userswishingtoreusematerialfromthisworkthatisattributedtoathirdparty,suchastables,figuresorimages,areresponsiblefordeterminingwhetherpermissionisneededforthatreuseandforobtainingpermissionfromthecopyrightholder.Theriskofclaimsresultingfrominfringementofanythird-party-ownedcomponentintheworkrestssolelywiththeuser. Sales,rightsandlicensing.FAOinformationproductsareavailableontheFAOwebsite(www.fao.org/publications)andcanbepurchasedthroughpublications-sales@fao.org.Requestsforcommercialuseshouldbesubmittedvia:www.fao.org/contact-us/licence-request.Queriesregardingrightsandlicensingshouldbesubmittedto:copyright@fao.org. Photocredits(lefttoright/toptobottom): ©AllFreeDownload;©Shutterstock;©Shutterstock;©AllFreeDownload;©PEXELS;©PEXELS;©iStock;©AllFreeDownload;©FAO;©iStock;©Freepik; ©iStock;©iStock;©iStock;©PEXELS;©Shutterstock HIGHLIGHTS F AO’slatestforecastspointtosomewhateasingofmarketconditionsforbasicfoodstuffs. However,increasedclimatevariability,conflictsandgeopoliticaltensions,bleakeconomicprospects,soaringagriculturalinputcostsandexportrestrictionscontinuetoposechallengestoglobalfoodcommoditymarketstability. WHEAT Withexpectationsofarecordwheatproductionandslowerutilizationgrowth,globalwheatinventoriesaresettorisein2022/23.However,mostoftheincreaseinstocksisanticipatedtobeconcentratedinafewcountries.Exportdisruptionsandreducedimportdemandareseenreducingworldwheattradebelowthe2021/22level. COARSEGRAINS Aforecastfallinproductionisseentighteningtheglobalcoarsegrainmarketsin2022/23,drivinganexpectedcontractioninglobalutilizationandstocks.Worldtradeincoarsegrainsispredictedtodeclineslightly,mostlyreflectingexpectationsofweakerimportdemandandtighterexportsupplies. RICE Althoughinclementweatherandsharphikesininputcostsareforecasttolowerglobalproductionandtightenexportableavailabilities,astilloveralladequateglobalharvestandlargecarry-insareanticipatedtokeepricesuppliesabundantin2022/23. MEAT Worldmeatproductionin2022isforecasttoexpand,albeitmoderately,withexpectedproductiongrowthslowdownsinthepigandpoultrymeatsectors,reflectinganimaldiseaseprevalenceandproducermarginerosion.Meanwhile,ananticipatedreductioninimportdemand,notablyforpigmeat,coupledwithhighpricesandeconomicdownturns,mayleadtoaslightdeclineinglobalmeattrade. SUGAR Ananticipatedincreaseinworldsugarproduction,amidalikelyslowriseinutilization,issettopushtheglobalsugarsurplusto4.9milliontonnesin2022/23.Globaltradeinsugarispredictedtoexpandmoderately,largelyspurredbylargerexportavailabilitiescomparedtothepreviousseason. OILCROPS FAO’spreliminaryforecastsforthe2022/23(October/September)seasonpointtoasomewhateasingmarketsituationf