工资价格螺旋：历史证据是什么？（英）

Wage-PriceSpirals:WhatistheHistoricalEvidence? JorgeAlvarez,JohnBluedorn,Niels-JakobHansen,YouyouHuang,EvgeniaPugacheva,andAlexandreSollaci WP/22/221 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate. TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. 2022 NOV ©2022InternationalMonetaryFundWP/22/221 IMFWorkingPaper ResearchDepartment Wage-PriceSpirals:WhatistheHistoricalEvidence? PreparedbyJorgeAlvarez,JohnBluedorn,Niels-JakobHansen,YouyouHuang,EvgeniaPugacheva,andAlexandreSollaci AuthorizedfordistributionbyDanielLeighNovember2022 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. ABSTRACT:Howoftenhavewage-pricespiralsoccurred,andwhathashappenedintheiraftermath?Weinvestigatethisbycreatingadatabaseofpastwage-pricespiralsamongawidesetofadvancedeconomiesgoingbacktothe1960s.Wedefineawage-pricespiralasanepisodewhereatleastthreeoutoffourconsecutivequarterssawacceleratingconsumerpricesandrisingnominalwages.Perhapssurprisingly,onlyasmallminorityofsuchepisodeswerefollowedbysustainedaccelerationinwagesandprices.Instead,inflationandnominalwagegrowthtendedtostabilize,leavingrealwagegrowthbroadlyunchanged.AdecompositionofwagedynamicsusingawagePhillipscurvesuggeststhatnominalwagegrowthnormallystabilizesatlevelsthatareconsistentwithobservedinflationandlabormarkettightness.Whenfocusingonepisodesthatmimictherecentpatternoffallingrealwagesandtighteninglabormarkets,declininginflationandnominalwagegrowthincreasestendedtofollow–thusallowingrealwagestocatchup.Weconcludethatanaccelerationofnominalwagesshouldnotnecessarilybeseenasasignthatawage-pricespiralistakinghold. RECOMMENDEDCITATION:Alvarez,Jorge,JohnBluedorn,Niels-JakobHansen,YouyouHuang,EvgeniaPugacheva,andAlexandreSollaci.2022.“Wage-PriceSpirals:WhatistheHistoricalEvidence?”IMFWorkingPaper22/221,InternationalMonetaryFund,Washington,DC. JELClassificationNumbers: E31,E24 Keywords: Inflation;Wages;Wage-pricespirals;Labormarkets. Author’sE-MailAddress: jalvarez@imf.org,jbluedorn@imf.org,nhansen@imf.org,yhuang4@imf.org,abalduinosollaci@imf.org,epugacheva@imf.org. WORKINGPAPERS Wage-PriceSpirals:WhatistheHistoricalEvidence? PreparedbyJorgeAlvarez,JohnBluedorn,Niels-JakobHansen,YouyouHuang,EvgeniaPugacheva,andAlexandreSollaci1 1WearegratefultoPetyaKoevaBrooks,DanielLeigh,andPierre-OlivierGourinchasforinvaluableguidanceandsupport.WealsothankSilviaAlbrizio,OlivierBlanchard,AllanDizioli,FahJirasavetakul,FrederikToscani,staffatNationalBankofBelgium,andseminarparticipantsattheIMFfortheirhelpfulcommentsandsuggestions. Contents 1.Introduction5 2.Data7 3.HistoricalExperiences8 4.AHistoricalDecompositionthroughtheLensofaWagePhilipsCurve13 5.AlookatEpisodesSimilartotheCOVID-19Shock15 6.Conclusion18 Annex19 References24 FIGURES Figure1.1:RecentBehaviorofPriceandNominalWageIndices5 Figure3.1:Shareofcountieswithacceleratingpricesandwages11 Figure3.2:ChangesinMacroeconomicVariablesafterPastEpisodeswithAcceleratingPricesandWages12 Figure4.1:Averagedecompositionofwagegrowthacrossepisodeswithacceleratingpricesandwages15 Figure5.1:ChangesinMacroeconomicVariablesafterEpisodesSimilarto202117 Figure5.2:AverageDecompositionofWageGrowthafterEpisodesSimilarto202118 TABLES Table2.1.VariableDescription7 Table3.1.DataSampleforHistoricalEpisodes9 Table3.2.PastPeriodswithAcceleratingWagesandPrices10 Table3.1WagePhillipsCurveEstimation14 Table5.1.SimilarPastEpisodes16 TableA.1.EconomiesinSample19 TableA.2.SamplesbyEmpiricalExcercise20 TableA.3.DataCoverage(QuartersBetween1960:Q1and2021:Q421 TableA.4.PastPeriodswithAcceleratingWagesandPrices23 1.Introduction WiththerecoverypickingupsteamaftertheacuteCOVID-19shock,inflationin2021rosetolevelsthathadnotbeenseeninalmost40yearsinmanyeconomies(Figure1.1,panelA).Atthesametime,theeconomicrecoveryhasbroughtaresurgenceindemandforlaborinmanysectors.Laborsupplywasslowtorespond,withsomeworkershesitanttoreengagebecauseofongoinghealthconcernsanddifficultiesfindingchildandfamilycare,amongotherfactors.Thisdemand-supplyimbalanceledtotighterlabormarketsandincreasedwagepressures,withaveragenominalwages(perworker)rising(Figure1.1,panelB)andtheunemploymentratefallingfromthesecondhalfof2020acrosseconomygroups.2 Figure1.1:RecentBehaviorofPriceandNominalWageIndices Sources:HaverAnalytics;InternationalLabourOrganization;OrganisationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment;IMFWEODatabase;andIMFstaffcalculations. Note:Thechartshowsthecross-economymedianandinterquartilerangeoftheconsumerpricesandnominalwageindex.Indicesarenormalizedtothat2019:Q4=100.SeeTable2.1andAnnexTableA.1andA.3foreconomy-coverageofthesample. Theserecentdevelopmentshavecausedobserverstoworryaboutapotentialwage-pricespiral,withrisinginflationandtightlabormarketspromptingworkerstodemand