Q2行业因素拖累业绩表现，期待L9上市带来量利齐升

LiAuto（02015.HK） EquityResearch·CompanyResearch·Automobile(HS) 2Q22Review:IndustryfactorsdragdownearningsresultsandL9launchisexpectedtoincreasebothvolumeandprofits Buy（Maintain） Forecast&Valuation 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E Revenue(RMBmn) 270.10 503.98 1168.77 2429.91 Growth(YoY%) 186% 87% 132% 108% Netprofit(RMBmn) -3.21 -0.50 29.82 95.59 Growth(YoY%) - - - 221% EPS(RMB) -0.15 -0.02 1.43 4.59 P/E(X) - - 75.31 23.50 Event:LiAutoannounced2Q22resultswithrevenueofRMB8.73bn(+73.3%YoY/ -8.7%QoQ);grossmarginof21.5%(+2.6pctYoY/-1.1pctQoQ);netlossofRMB618mn,decreasingbyRMB607mnQoQandRMB383mnYoY;netprofitmarginof -7.08%. InvestmentThesis NegativeindustryfactorsandincreasingR&D/salesexpensesresultedinlargerlossof2Q22.1)Orders&GrossProfit:In2Q22,thecompanydeliveredLiONEof28,687units(+63.2%YoY/-9.6%QoQ)astheproductionandlogisticstransportationofsupplychainandOEMswereaffectedbytherecurringCOVID-19pandemicinShanghaiandYangtzeRiverDelta.The2Q22averagepriceperautomobilewasRMB295,700(+6.0%YoY/+0.7%QoQ)andtheriseofrevenuewasbetterthanthatofsalesvolume.Affectedbytherisinglithiumprices,thecompanyincreasedproductionpricebyRMB11,800onApril1,2022.However,asthepreviousorderswerenotdeliveredintime,2Qorderswerestilldominatedbytheordersbeforethepricehike.Thegrossmarginforautomotivebusinesswas21.18%(+2.5pctYoY/-1.2pctQoQ)andoverallgrossmargindropped-1.1pctQoQduetorisingcostsandreducingscaleeffect. 2)Expenseratio:2QR&D/SG&AexpenseswereRMB1.53/1.33bn,correspondingtoanexpenseratioat17.54%/15.17%,withaYoYgrowth+4.58/-1.04pctandQoQgrowth+3.17/+2.59pct.ThelargeYoYandQoQgrowthinR&Dexpenseratiocamefromthecontinuedexpansionofthecompany'sR&Dteamandincreasingnewvehicledevelopmentcosts.ThelargeQoQgrowthinSG&Aexpenseratiocamefromtherapidexpansionofthecompany'schannelnetworkandincreasingrent&staffsalaries,whiletheYoYdeclineinSG&Aexpenseratiowasduetoincreasingamortizedexpensesfollowedbyincreasingsales. Channelscontinuetoexpand;newmodelL9andLiONEafterpricehikesareexpectedtoleadtoahigheraveragepriceperautomobilein3Q.Asof31July2022,LiAutohas259retailcentersnationwide,covering118cities;311after-salesrepaircentersandauthorizedsheetspraycenters,covering226cities.Accordingtothecompany'sguidelines,itwilldeliverabout27,000~29,000automobilesin3Q22(+7.5%~15.5%YoY),correspondingtorevenuesRMB8.96~9.56bn(+15.3%~22.9%YoY).3Q22averagepriceperautomobilemaysharplyrisetoRMB330,000duetothedeliveryofLiONEafterpricehikeandnewmodelL9. EarningsForecast&Rating:Duetothecompany'sfull-yearsalesforecastcut,wereduceour2022/2023/2024revenueforecastfromRMB57.6/129.8/221.5bntoRMB50.4/116.9/243.0bn,withaYoYgrowth+87%/+132%/+108%;netprofitforecastdropsfromRMB0.36/3.37/9.90bntoRMB-0.05/2.98/9.56bn,withaYoYgrowthof +221%in2024andcorrespondingto2023/2024PEratiosat75x/24x,respectively.Weareoptimisticaboutthecompany'shighsalesgrowthinthefutureandgivea2022PSat6x,ayearlytargetpriceofHKD167.9.Wemaintaina"Buy"rating. Risks:Lower-than-expecteddevelopmentofnewenergyvehicleindustry;unstablesupplychainsofkeycomponentssuchaschipsandbattery;tightenedsoftwareOTAupgradepolicy;lower-than-expectednewmodelspromotion. 22September2022 ResearchAnalystShiruiOuyang(852)38923120 ouyangshirui@dwzq.com.hkPricePerformance MarketDataClosingprice(HKD) 118.40 52-weekRange(HKD) 67.30/165.30 P/B(X) 5.78 MarketCap(HKDmn) 204,685.88 BasicData BVPS(HKD) 20.50 Liabilities/assets(%) 41.16 TotalIssuedShares(mn) 2,084.58 Sharesoutstanding(mn) 1,728.77 Relatedreports 《理想汽车-W(02015.HK:)：7月销量数据点评：交付同比+21%，L9订单强劲》 2022-08-03 《理想汽车-W(02015.HK:)：L9有望成为新能源豪华车市场热销车型！》 2022-06-22 《理想汽车-W(02015.HK:)：Q1业绩符合我们预期，盈利能力持续提升》 2022-05-11 SoochowSecuritiesInternationalBrokerageLimitedwouldliketoacknowledgethecontributionandsupportprovidedbySoochowResearchInstitute,andinparticularits employeesDuohongZeng(曾朵红),XiliHuang(黄细里)andHuibingYang(杨惠冰). 东吴证券(香港) 1/9 理想汽车-W（02015.HK） 证券研究报告·公司点评·汽车(HS) Q2行业因素拖累业绩表现，期待L9上市带来量利齐升 买入（维持） 盈利预测与估值 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 营业总收入（亿元） 270.10 503.98 1168.77 2429.91 同比 186% 87% 132% 108% 归属母公司净利润（亿元） -3.21 -0.50 29.82 95.59 同比 - - - 221% 每股收益-最新股本摊薄（元/股） -0.15 -0.02 1.43 4.59 P/E（现价最新股本摊薄） - - 75.31 23.50 投资要点 季报要点：理想汽车公布2022Q2业绩，营业收入87.33亿元，同环比分别+73.3%/-8.7%；毛利率21.5%，同环比分别+2.6pct/-1.1pct；归母净亏损6.18亿元，相比2022Q1降低6.07亿元，相比2021Q2降低3.83亿元，归母净利率-7.08%。 行业负面因素叠加自身研发/销售渠道开拓支出增加导致Q2亏损幅度扩大。1）订单及毛利：2022Q2合计交付28,687台理想ONE，同环比分别+63.2%/-9.6%，主要系Q2上海及长三角地区疫情因素影响供应链/ 主机厂生产及物流运输。22Q2单车均价29.57万元，同环比分别 +6.0%/+0.7%，营收涨幅好于销量。受锂价上涨影响，公司于22年4月 2022年9月22日 证券分析师 欧阳诗睿 (852)38923120 ouyangshirui@dwzq.com.hk 股价走势 市场数据 收盘价(港元)118.40 一年最低/最高价67.30/165.30 市净率(倍)5.78 1日涨价1.18万元，但由于之前订单未及时交付，Q2仍以涨价前订单为主，汽车业务毛利率21.18%，同环比分别+2.5/-1.2pct，成本上涨叠加规模效应降低导致整体毛利率环比-1.1pct。2）费用率：Q2研发/销售 行政及一般费用支出分别为15.32/13.25亿元，对应费用率分别 17.54%/15.17%，同比分别+4.58/-1.04pct，环比分别+3.17/+2.59pct；研 港股流通市值(百万港元) 基础数据 204,685.88 发费用率同环比提升较大主要系公司研发团队规模持续扩大，新车开发费用增加所致；销售行政及一般费用率环比增加主要系公司渠道网络迅速开拓，对应租金及员工薪酬增加所致，同比下滑主要系随销量增加带来费用摊销增加。 渠道持续开拓，L9新车及ONE涨价后订单带来Q3高均价。截止2022年7月31日，理想在全国已有259家零售中心，覆盖118个城市；售后维修中心及授权钣喷中心311家，覆盖226个城市。根据公司自身指引，2022Q3预计交付2.7~2.9万辆,同比+7.5%~1