银河期货PVC周报

银河期货PVC周报能化投资研究部周琴投资咨询资格证号：Z00159432022年8月8日银河能化微信公众号 1GALAXY FUTURES概述项目基本面及变化库存本周PVC生产企业累库2万吨至42.5万吨，同比增加31.4万吨。本周PVC社会库存小幅去库0.2万吨至35.2万吨，同比增加23.4万吨。其中华东库存基本与上周持平在30.3万吨，同比增加20.9万吨，华南去库0.26万吨至5万吨，同比增加2.5万吨。当前PVC生产企业库存和社会库存均在历史同期高位，库存压力依旧很大。产量7月PVC产量191万吨，环比增加5.4%，同比增加2%，累计同比下降1.5%。本周PVC开工2.2个百分点至75.9%，同比下降1.3个百分点。其中电石法开工下降2.2个百分点至77%，同比下降0.1个百分点。乙烯法开工下降2.3个百分点至71.5%，同比下降5.6个百分点。当前PVC开工处于同期偏低水平。电石本周电石价格上涨，乌海地区主流价格上涨150元/吨至3950元/吨，山东地区上涨100元/吨至4380元/吨，电石利润上涨150元/吨至350元/吨，电石开工上升6.12个百分点至78.8%。兰炭本周兰炭价格持稳1460元/吨，兰炭利润上涨10元/吨至-116元/吨，兰炭开工下降3.24个百分点至54.7%。进出口1月PVC出口13.9万吨，2月出口11.5万吨，3月22.1万吨，4月PVC出口27.8万吨，5月PVC出口26.6万吨，6月PVC出口22.3万吨，环比减少16%，同比增长72.6%，累计同比增长12.7%。7月21日，中国台湾台塑8月PVC预售报价公布，CFR中国大陆跌190在930美元/吨，CFR东南亚跌220在980美元/吨,CFR印度跌230美元/吨在1090美元/吨。FOB台湾下调200在880美元/吨。本周出口新增签单量基本为乙烯法，在1.7万吨，出口报价在860-920美元/吨FOB，电石法成为高端价，乙烯法为低端价。外盘价格本周外盘主要是美国和西北欧价格下跌，美国出口价格大幅下降220美元/吨至800美元/吨，西北欧离岸价下降100美元/吨至1410美元/吨，印度CFR持稳1040美元/吨，东南亚CFR持稳930美元/吨,CFR中国持稳900美元/吨。需求6月PVC消费155.8万吨，同比下降15.95%，累计同比下降5.8%，日均消费环比下降6.6%。本周下游制品企业开工率在48.96%，环比持平，同比减少5.81%。型材开机率在34.75%，环比持平，同比减少14.00%。成本利润本周电石利润上涨150元/吨至350元/吨，兰炭利润上涨10元/吨至-116元/吨，山东外购电石法PVC利润下降360元/吨至-860元/吨，山东一体化利润下降425元/吨至-380元/吨。价格价差本周PVC震荡下跌，PVC主力合约下跌4.34%，华东现货下跌5.07%，华东主力基差下跌51至09-34，9-1价差维持225,1-5价差上涨36至59。观点上游电石上涨，PVC外购电石法利润、氯碱一体化亏损加大，PVC估值低位。本周PVC生产企业累库，社会库存小幅去库，社会库存和生产企业库存都在历史高位，库存压力大，外盘价格继续走低，出口新增签单低位，得益于房地产政策提振，短期价格震荡偏强。中长期仍是供需过剩，价格依旧比较悲观。 2GALAXY FUTURESPVC期现资料来源：卓创、隆众、银河期货4000500060007000800090001000011000120009/2010/2011/2012/201/202/203/204/205/206/207/208/20PVC 09季节性PVC1709PVC1809PVC1909PVC2009PVC2109PVC22090.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.01/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1PVC09合约持仓量201420152016201720182019202020212022400060008000100001200014000160001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1PVC 常州SG-5201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 3GALAXY FUTURES资料来源：卓创、隆众、银河期货(300)(200)(100)01002003004005006007001/202/32/173/33/173/314/144/285/125/266/96/237/77/218/48/189/1V 9-1V1309-V1401V1409-V1501V1509-V1601V1609-V1701V1709-V1801V1809-V1901V1909-V2001V2009-V2101V2109-V2201V2209-V2301PVC期现(1000)(500)05001000150020002500300035009/2010/2011/2012/201/202/203/204/205/206/207/208/20PVC 09基差PVC1609PVC1709PVC1809PVC1909PVC2009PVC2109PVC2209(400)(200)020040060080010001200140016005/20PVC 1-5价差PVC1601-PVC1605PVC1701-PVC1705PVC1801-PVC1805PVC1901-PVC1905PVC2001-PVC2005PVC2101-PVC2105PVC2201-PVC2205PVC2301-PVC2305 4GALAXY FUTURES兰炭资料来源：卓创、隆众、银河期货3508501,3501,8502,3502,8503,3503,8501/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1兰炭市场价中料神木20162017201820192020202120220200400600800100012001400160018001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1精煤块价格20152016201720182019202020212022-400-20002004006008001000120014001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1兰炭利润201520162017201820192020202120220.200.250.300.350.400.450.500.550.600.650.701/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1兰炭开工率202020212022◼本周兰炭价格持稳1460元/吨，兰炭利润上涨10元/吨至-116元/吨，兰炭开工下降3.24个百分点至54.7%。 5GALAXY FUTURES电石资料来源：卓创、隆众、银河期货50.00%55.00%60.00%65.00%70.00%75.00%80.00%85.00%90.00%95.00%1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/11/1电石开工率202020212022-1000-5000500100015002000250030001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1电石生产利润201520162017201820192020202120221000200030004000500060007000800090001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1乌海电石201620172018201920202021202201000200030004000500060007000800090001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1山东电石2016201720182019202020212022◼本周电石价格上涨，乌海地区主流价格上涨150元/吨至3950元/吨，山东地区上涨100元/吨至4380元/吨，电石利润上涨150元/吨至350元/吨，电石开工上升6.12个百分点至78.8%。 6GALAXY FUTURES电石法PVC利润资料来源：卓创、隆众、银河期货60.0065.0070.0075.0080.0085.0090.0095.001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1电石法PVC粉开工率201720182019202020212022-3000-2000-100001000200030001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1西北外购电石PVC生产利润20152016201720182019202020212022-1000-500050010001500200025003000350040001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1西北自产电石法生产利润20152016201720182019202020212022-3000-2000-100001000200030001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1山东外购电石法PVC生产利润20152016201720182019202020212022-1000010002000300040001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1山东氯碱一体化利润20152016201720182019202020212022◼本周山东外购电石法PVC利润下降360元/吨至-860元/吨，山东一体化利润下降425元/吨至-380元/吨。 7GALAXY FUTURES乙烯法PVC利润资料来源：卓创、隆众、银河期货-10000100020003000400050006000700080009000100001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1华东进口乙烯法PVC生产利润20152016201720182019202020212022-4000-3000-2000-100001000200030004000500060001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1华东进口VCM法生产利润20152016201720182019202020212022 8GALAXY FUTURESPVC库存资料来源：卓创、隆众、银河期货0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.0045.0050.001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1PVC社会库存：华东+华南2014201520162017201820192020202120220.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1PVC华东社会库存2014201520162017201820192020202120220.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.0016.0018.001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1PVC华南社会库存2014201520162017201820192020202120220.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1PVC上游库存2019202020212022◼本周PVC生产企业累库2万吨至42.5万吨，同比增加31.4万吨。本周PVC社会库存