银河期货PVC周报

银河期货PVC周报能化投资研究部周琴投资咨询资格证号：Z00159432022年7月11日银河能化微信公众号 1GALAXY FUTURES概述项目基本面及变化库存上周PVC生产企业库存和社会库存继续累库，库存处于同期高位，库存压力大。上周生产企业库存环比增加1.9万吨至38.3万吨，同比增加29.2万吨。社会库存增加1.6万吨至35.7万吨，同比增加21.4万吨。其中华东社会库存累库1.5万吨至30.7万吨，同比增加19.7万吨，华南社会库存累库0.1万吨至5万吨，同比增加1.7万吨。产量6月PVC产量181.3万吨，环比下降6.9%，同比下降6.2%，累计同比下降2.1%。上周PVC开工上升1.06个百分点至77.13%，同比下降7.5个百分点。其中电石法开工下降0.62个百分点至76.74%，同比下降9.4个百分点，乙烯法开工上升7.27个百分点至78.57%，同比上升0.42个百分点。电石上周电石价格小幅上升，乌海地区主流价格上涨25元/吨至3725元/吨，电石利润上升25元/吨至-113元/吨，电石开工下降1.28个百分点至74.87%。兰炭上周兰炭价格持稳1740元/吨，兰炭利润持稳-70元/吨，兰炭开工下降2.31个百分点至61.64%。进出口1月PVC出口13.9万吨，2月出口11.5万吨，3月22.1万吨，4月PVC出口27.8万吨，5月PVC出口26.6万吨，环比减少4.4%，同比增加23%，累计同比增长4.7%。6月21日，台塑公布7月船期预售价格，环比下降90美元/吨，CFR印度在1320美元/吨，较当前市场低端价下调30美元/吨；CFR中国在1120美元/吨；FOB在1080-1100美元/吨针对不同区域上周PVC出口新增签单量环比增加0.3万吨至0.8万吨，货源交付增加至2.3万吨，出口报价在900-980美元/吨FOB，下降40-45美元/吨。外盘价格上周PVC外盘价格继续走低，西北欧离岸价下降100美元/吨至1730美元/吨，东南亚CFR下降50美元/吨至1100美元/吨，印度CFR下降50美元/吨至1200美元/吨，美国出口价格持稳1310美元/吨。需求5月PVC消费172.4万吨，环比增长3.4%，同比下降1.33%，累计同比下降3.6%。上周PVC下游制品企业开工率在49.68%（上期49.42），环比增加0.28%，汽车等软制品产业开工略好，同比减少3.28%。型材开机率在33.50%，环比减少0.25%，同比减少19.00%。成本利润上周电石利润上升25元/吨至-113元/吨，兰炭利润持稳-70元/吨，山东外购电石法利润下降400元/吨至-660元/吨，西北外购电石法利润下降660元/吨至-340元/吨，山东氯碱一体化利润下降536元/吨至610元/吨。价格价差上周外盘价格大幅走跌，周内成交未见起色，库存仍在累库，基本面没有好转，PVC期现继续下跌。上周PVC主力9.18%，华东现货下跌8.97%，华东主力基差走弱8至88，9-1价差下降70至34,1-5价差下降35至-60。观点上周PVC上游库存和社会库存继续累库，PVC库存压力大的情况并未好转，7月集中检修结束，开工存逐步回升，目前外购电石法亏损，氯碱一体化利润尚有利润，PVC供应存回升预期。需求方面，海外价格持续大幅走弱，出口价格持续走低，出口新增签单量低位，出口走弱。内需恢复并不显著，下游开工没有明显提升，同期仍处低位，7月仍是需求季节性淡季，PVC短期仍旧震荡偏空。关注上游减产情况及疫情。 2GALAXY FUTURESPVC期现资料来源：卓创、隆众、银河期货4000500060007000800090001000011000120009/2010/2011/2012/201/202/203/204/205/206/207/208/20PVC 09季节性PVC1709PVC1809PVC1909PVC2009PVC2109PVC22090.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.01/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1PVC09合约持仓量201420152016201720182019202020212022400060008000100001200014000160001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1PVC 常州SG-5201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 3GALAXY FUTURES资料来源：卓创、隆众、银河期货(30 0)(20 0)(10 0)01002003004005006007001/202/32/173/33/173/314/144/285/125/266/96/237/77/218/48/189/1V 9-1V1309-V1401V1409-V1501V1509-V1601V1609-V1701V1709-V1801V1809-V1901V1909-V2001V2009-V2101V2109-V2201V2209-V2301PVC期现(1000)(500)05001000150020002500300035009/2010/2011/2012/201/202/203/204/205/206/207/208/20PVC 09基差PVC1609PVC1709PVC1809PVC1909PVC2009PVC2109PVC2209(400)(200)020040060080010001200140016005/ 20PVC 1-5价差PVC1601-PVC1605PVC1701-PVC1705PVC1801-PVC1805PVC1901-PVC1905PVC2001-PVC2005PVC2101-PVC2105PVC2201-PVC2205PVC2301-PVC2305 4GALAXY FUTURES兰炭资料来源：卓创、隆众、银河期货3508501,3501,8502,3502,8503,3503,8501/12/13/ 14/ 15/ 16/ 17/ 18/19/110/111/112/1兰炭市场价中料神木20162017201820192020202120220200400600800100012001400160018001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1精煤块价格20152016201720182019202020212022-400-20002004006008001000120014001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1兰炭利润201520162017201820192020202120220.200.250.300.350.400.450.500.550.600.650.701/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1兰炭开工率202020212022上周兰炭价格持稳1740元/吨，兰炭利润持稳-70元/吨，兰炭开工下降2.31个百分点至61.64%。 5GALAXY FUTURES电石资料来源：卓创、隆众、银河期货50.00%55.00%60.00%65.00%70.00%75.00%80.00%85.00%90.00%95.00%1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/11/1电石开工率202020212022-1000-5000500100015002000250030001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1电石生产利润201520162017201820192020202120221000200030004000500060007000800090001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1乌海电石201620172018201920202021202201000200030004000500060007000800090001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1山东电石2016201720182019202020212022上周电石价格小幅上升，乌海地区主流价格上涨25元/吨至3725元/吨，电石利润上升25元/吨至-113元/吨，电石开工下降1.28个百分点至74.87%。 6GALAXY FUTURES电石法PVC利润资料来源：卓创、隆众、银河期货60.0065.0070.0075.0080.0085.0090.0095.001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1电石法PVC粉开工率201720182019202020212022-3000-2000-100001000200030001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1西北外购电石PVC生产利润20152016201720182019202020212022-1000-500050010001500200025003000350040001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1西北自产电石法生产利润20152016201720182019202020212022-3000-2000-100001000200030001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1山东外购电石法PVC生产利润20152016201720182019202020212022-1000-5000500100015002000250030003500400045001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1山东氯碱一体化利润20152016201720182019202020212022上周山东外购电石法利润下降400元/吨至-660元/吨，西北外购电石法利润下降660元/吨至-340元/吨，山东氯碱一体化利润下降536元/吨至610元/吨。 7GALAXY FUTURES乙烯法PVC利润资料来源：卓创、隆众、银河期货-100001000200030004000500060007000800090001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1华东进口乙烯法PVC生产利润20152016201720182019202020212022-4000-3000-2000-100001000200030004000500060001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1华东进口VCM法生产利润20152016201720182019202020212022 8GALAXY FUTURESPVC库存资料来源：卓创、隆众、银河期货0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.0045.0050.001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1PVC社会库存：华东+华南2014201520162017201820192020202120220.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1PVC华东社会库存2014201520162017201820192020202120220.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.0016.0018.001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1PVC华南社会库存2014201520162017201820192020202120220.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.