银河期货PVC周报

银河期货PVC周报能化投资研究部周琴投资咨询资格证号：Z00159432022年8月15日银河能化微信公众号 1GALAXY FUTURES概述项目基本面及变化库存本周PVC生产企业库存累库1.9万吨至44.4万吨，同比增加33.2万吨。本周PVC社会库存环比下降0.16万吨至35.1万吨，同比增加23.4万吨。当前PVC生产企业库存和社会库存均在历史高位，库存压力依旧很大。产量7月PVC产量191万吨，环比增加5.4%，同比增加2%，累计同比下降1.5%。本周PVC开工下降0.42个百分点至75.4%，同比下降2.6个百分点。其中电石法开工下降3个百分点至74%，同比下降5.2个百分点。乙烯法开工率上升9.2个百分点至80.7%，同比上升6.9个百分点。当前PVC开工处于同期偏低水平。电石本周电石价格上涨，乌海地区主流价格上涨50元/吨至4000元/吨，山东地区上涨50元/吨至4430元/吨，电石利润上涨50元/吨至400元/吨，电石开工上升2.9个百分点至81.7%，本周电石企业供应能力有所提升，目前负荷依旧在恢复阶段。兰炭本周兰炭价格持稳1460元/吨，兰炭开工上升1.7个百分点至56.3%。进出口1月PVC出口13.9万吨，2月出口11.5万吨，3月22.1万吨，4月PVC出口27.8万吨，5月PVC出口26.6万吨，6月PVC出口22.3万吨，环比减少16%，同比增长72.6%，累计同比增长12.7%。8月12日，中国台湾台塑9月PVC预售报价公布，环比持稳。CFR中国大陆在930美元/吨，CFR东南亚在980美元/吨,CFR印度在1090美元/吨。FOB台湾880美元/吨。本周生产企业出口待交付量（出口预售订单）环比减少至9.6万吨，本周签单量减少至0.5万吨，出口报价在880-920美元/吨FOB，电石法成为高端价，乙烯法为低端价。外盘价格本周西北欧离岸价下降30美元/吨至1380美元/吨，其他价格持稳，美国出口价格800美元/吨，东南亚CFR930美元/吨，印度CFR1040美元/吨，中国CFR900美元/吨。需求6月PVC消费155.8万吨，同比下降15.95%，累计同比下降5.8%，日均消费环比下降6.6%。本周下游制品企业开工率在48.27%，环比减少0.69%，同比减少6.27%。型材开机率在33.13%，环比增加1.63%，同比减少16.25%。成本利润本周电石利润上涨50元/吨至400元/吨，山东外购电石法利润下降152元/吨至-1016元/吨，一体化利润降164元/吨至-546元/吨。价格价差上周PVC先涨后跌，主力合约周度收涨0.84%，华东现货周度收涨0.76%，主力基差降5至09-39,9-1价差降20至205,1-5价差涨10至69。观点上周PVC上游库存继续累库，社会库存略降，总库存累库，目前PVC上游库存和社会库存均在历史高位，库存压力大，上周开工继续下降，但仍旧累库存，需求表现弱。由于外购电石法、氯碱一体化利润亏损扩大，估值偏低，短期PVC震荡偏弱。中长期仍是供需过剩，价格依旧比较悲观。 2GALAXY FUTURESPVC期现资料来源：卓创、隆众、银河期货4000500060007000800090001000011000120009/2010/2011/2012/201/202/203/204/205/206/207/208/20PVC 09季节性PVC1709PVC1809PVC1909PVC2009PVC2109PVC22090.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.01/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1PVC09合约持仓量201420152016201720182019202020212022400060008000100001200014000160001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1PVC 常州SG-5201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 3GALAXY FUTURES资料来源：卓创、隆众、银河期货(30 0)(20 0)(10 0)01002003004005006007001/202/32/173/33/173/314/144/285/125/266/96/237/77/218/48/189/1V 9-1V1309-V1401V1409-V1501V1509-V1601V1609-V1701V1709-V1801V1809-V1901V1909-V2001V2009-V2101V2109-V2201V2209-V2301PVC期现(1000)(500)05001000150020002500300035009/2010/2011/2012/201/202/203/204/205/206/207/208/20PVC 09基差PVC1609PVC1709PVC1809PVC1909PVC2009PVC2109PVC2209(400)(200)020040060080010001200140016005/ 20PVC 1-5价差PVC1601-PVC1605PVC1701-PVC1705PVC1801-PVC1805PVC1901-PVC1905PVC2001-PVC2005PVC2101-PVC2105PVC2201-PVC2205PVC2301-PVC2305 4GALAXY FUTURES兰炭资料来源：卓创、隆众、银河期货3508501,3501,8502,3502,8503,3503,8501/12/13/ 14/ 15/ 16/ 17/ 18/19/110/111/112/1兰炭市场价中料神木20162017201820192020202120220200400600800100012001400160018001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1精煤块价格20152016201720182019202020212022-400-20002004006008001000120014001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1兰炭利润201520162017201820192020202120220.200.250.300.350.400.450.500.550.600.650.701/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1兰炭开工率202020212022本周兰炭价格持稳1460元/吨，兰炭开工上升1.7个百分点至56.3%。 5GALAXY FUTURES电石资料来源：卓创、隆众、银河期货50.00%55.00%60.00%65.00%70.00%75.00%80.00%85.00%90.00%95.00%1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/11/1电石开工率202020212022-1000-5000500100015002000250030001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1电石生产利润201520162017201820192020202120221000200030004000500060007000800090001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1乌海电石201620172018201920202021202201000200030004000500060007000800090001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1山东电石2016201720182019202020212022本周电石价格上涨，乌海地区主流价格上涨50元/吨至4000元/吨，山东地区上涨50元/吨至4430元/吨，电石利润上涨50元/吨至400元/吨，电石开工上升2.9个百分点至81.7%,本周电石企业供应能力有所提升，目前负荷依旧在恢复阶段。 6GALAXY FUTURES电石法PVC利润资料来源：卓创、隆众、银河期货60.0065.0070.0075.0080.0085.0090.0095.001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1电石法PVC粉开工率201720182019202020212022-3000-2000-100001000200030001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1西北外购电石PVC生产利润20152016201720182019202020212022-1000-500050010001500200025003000350040001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1西北自产电石法生产利润20152016201720182019202020212022-3000-2000-100001000200030001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1山东外购电石法PVC生产利润20152016201720182019202020212022-1000-500050010001500200025003000350040001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1山东氯碱一体化利润20152016201720182019202020212022本周山东外购电石法利润下降152元/吨至-1016元/吨，一体化利润降164元/吨至-546元/吨。 7GALAXY FUTURES乙烯法PVC利润资料来源：卓创、隆众、银河期货-10000100020003000400050006000700080009000100001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1华东进口乙烯法PVC生产利润20152016201720182019202020212022-4000-3000-2000-100001000200030004000500060001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1华东进口VCM法生产利润20152016201720182019202020212022 8GALAXY FUTURESPVC库存资料来源：卓创、隆众、银河期货0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.0045.0050.001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1PVC社会库存：华东+华南2014201520162017201820192020202120220.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1PVC华东社会库存2014201520162017201820192020202120220.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.0016.0018.001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1PVC华南社会库存2014201520162017201820192020202120220.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1PVC上游库存2019202020212022本周PVC生产企业库存累库1.9万吨至44.4万吨，同比增加33.2万吨。本周PVC社会库存环比下降0.16万吨至35.1万吨，同比增加23.4万吨。当前PVC生产企业库存和社会库存均在历史高位，库存压力依旧很大。01020304