IT硬件及通信设备：AI隐含倍数—阶段性调整

Taking A Break We are back to looking biweekly at how our AI-bucketedstocks have trended. Material movement was focused aroundoptical names with most others not seeing much movement IT Hardware and CommunicationsEquipmentNEUTRAL IT Hardware and Communications Tim Long+1 212 526 4043tim.long@barclays.com Roughly two weeks ago (Implied AI Multiples - Rising TidesLiftSome, 06.01.26) we updated ourbiweekly AI exposure math that we debuted four months ago (AI Update, 02.11.26). We also nowtrack how implied AI multiples have trended across our AI bucketed stocks since we started thisseries. Recall, we started this analysis to assess what was embedded for our AI-related stocks Alyssa Shreves+1 212 526 7570alyssa.shreves@barclays.com Mary Lenox+1 212 526 6277mary.lenox@barclays.com Since the last report, on average, our AI-bucketed stocks' share prices have trended down MSD(vs SPX -2% and NDX -2% from 5.29.26-6.17.26), with SMCI's (-40%), FN's (-11%), and CIEN's(-25%) share price movement driving down the average. HPE continues to see upward shareprice movement (+12% in the same time period), whereas most of the other stocks were up/ Clarisse Yu+1 212 526 7025clarisse.yu@barclays.com As a reminder, the select companies under our coverage that are commonly bucketed as 'AIplays' represent ~20% of total Cloud/AI capex, per our estimates, and these companies areexperiencing meaningful revenue growth in their respective Cloud/AI businesses. In our originalreport, most of these stocks implied AI multiples of 20-40x, with some much higher (GLW, KEYS, Below is our latest breakdown of these AI-bucketed stocks' percent of revenue from Cloud/AI aswell as as a percentage of total AI spend, and their estimated cloud AI revenue growth from With Cloud AI growth moving higher across the industry, and the latest round of hyperscalerearnings highlighting increased capex expectations, our average cloud AI revenue growth CAGRfor 2023-27E is ~62% on average vs our initial estimate of ~53%. Below is a side-by-side comparison of current implied AI multiples vs May 29th. In the last update, within our illustrative math, we moved DELL's, HPE's, and CSCO's corebusiness multiples up by a turn, given each's recent legacy business outperformance (on-premseems to be doing better), ability to handle the current constrained component environment, Despite CIEN's strong earnings print, given the run-up in the stock intra-Q (+107% vs SPX +11%,NDX +22% from 3.05.26-6.03.26), the print was not enough to drive the stock price higher,tumbling the stock and implied AI multiple. FN also saw downward pressure given its CMrelationship to CIEN. SMCI announced $7Bn equity and equity-linked financing transactions to SMCIsaw the largest share price movement in the bucket of stocks (-40% since 5.29.26) dueto the financing announcement mentioned above and the implied share dilutionexpectations. In conjunction with the financing announcement, SMCI highlighted it received~$39Bn of incremental AI orders since Q-end that are expected to be fulfilled in the next ~2-3 CIENalso saw material downward share price movement (-25% since 5.29.26), though webelieve this largely due to the run-up in the stock into earnings ~two weeks ago. We do notview this as a slowdown in the optical space, but more so earnings not matching the high barset by the share price run-up. However, because CIEN's earnings failed to meet street HPEwas a notable share gainer (+12% since 5.29.26), given strong earnings, news circulatingaround another activist fund taking a stake in the company, and follow-oneffectsfrom thepositive sentiment from DELL earnings late last month. Interestingly, the implied AI multiplesaw rapid acceleration since we began this series, moving from HSD to now >50x. We We also take a look at companies under our coverage that have been excluded from the AI wave(i.e., AAPL, GRMN, AXON, MSI, etc.) and look at how their multiples compare since our last reportand also vs their respective 'core' P/E multiples. These stocks, on average, are down HSD since Multiple movement remained relatively muted vs the prior reading. We continue to believethe majority of these names are grouped in more 'defensive' buckets that have seen morelimited share price movement, though acknowledge some of the idiosyncratic recent Analyst(s) Certification(s):I, Tim Long, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendations or views expressed in this research report. Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). All authors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The pub