IT硬件及通信设备：园区网络模型更新，增长回归常态

Campus Networking ModelUpdate; Growth Normalizing We update our detailed Campus Networking model followingrecent company moves and industry conversations. Ouroverall numbers show ~8% Y/Y growth in 2026 and ~7% in IT Hardware and CommunicationsEquipment IT Hardware and Communications Tim Long+1 212 526 4043tim.long@barclays.com Alyssa Shreves+1 212 526 7570alyssa.shreves@barclays.com THE EXTEL SURVEY IS CLOSING SOON Support our industry-leadinganalysts with 5-Star votes inthe 2026 Extel All-America Mary Lenox+1 212 526 6277mary.lenox@barclays.com Clarisse Yu+1 212 526 7025clarisse.yu@barclays.com Vote Now View Analysts In this report, we provide an update to our Campus Networking modelafterrecent companyevents and industry conversations. We are now forecasting overall growth of 8% and 7% for2026 and 2027, respectively, decelerating from ~10% growth in 2025. The campus market has •We adjust overall 2026/2027e Campus Networking growth to 8%/7% from 10%/7%. The•market typically grows MSD but expanded above trend post pandemic on hybrid worktailwinds, growing ~20% in 2021 and mid-teens in 2022 and 2023. 2024 was a correction year, •We now expect the total Campus Networking market CAGR of 6% from 2021-2026 (vs. prior•estimate of 7%). Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 7.Completed: 09-Jun-26, 22:15 GMTReleased: 10-Jun-26, 04:10 GMT Wired Switching constitutes the largest segment within the total campus market withindustry players reporting robust order and revenue growth. We believe refresh activity is For total WLAN market, we are estimating ~12% growth in 2026 and ~8% in 2027 as WiFi 7 isramping. The Cloud WLAN market grows faster than the rest of the WLAN market, as weforecast a 2021-2026 CAGR of 17% (vs. prior 15%) compared to our overall market estimate of Enterprise Routing is the smallest part of the market and slower-moving. We expect modestgrowth this year and forecast low to mid single digit growth in 2026 and 2027. We expect theEnterprise SD-WAN market to grow at ~11% 2021-2026e CAGR. This market saw very high From a vendor standpoint: ANET (OW rated) entered the Campus market later and has grown its LSD share over theyears. In the most recent earnings call, the company campus revenue guidance was $1.25Bfor 2026. Arista's market share in campus was 0.3% in 2020 which we expect to rise to 3.4% by CSCO (EW rated) has the lion's share of the market (~50%). Networking revenues contractedin 2024 across the industry, but CSCO was hit harder on inventory correction. Since then,performance has been strong. In F3Q26, Cisco campus networking orders grew more than25% Y/Y and wireless orders grew more than 40% Y/Y. While Cisco has meaningful marketshare in the campus market, we tend to see shareshiftsthere, with Cisco likely being a share •HPE (OW rated) has historically controlled low-DD share. Like CSCO, HPE experienced a•bottoming of its Aruba business in 2024, and we model a strong return to growth in theNetworking segment this year. We expect HPE to maintain the low DD market share level but Campus Networking Market The campus market corrected with a sharp 16% decline in 2024 following elevated growth in2021-2023. We expect strong growth of 8% in 2026 and more normalized growth of 7% in 2027. CSCO dominates the campus market and has close to 50% share by our estimate. ANET cameinto the market much later, and, though a LSD player currently we expect it to continue gainingshare in 2026 and 2027. HPE has maintained low DD share. The Enterprise DC Switching market has been growing faster than the Campus market. Weestimate 9% and 7% growth for campus switching and 47% and 24% for enterprise DC switching The WLAN market accelerated in 2021 and 2022 before correcting in 2024. We model 12%growth for 2026 and 8% for 2027. Within this, we have WLAN Cloud growing faster at 17%CY21-27E CAGR. The Enterprise SD-WAN market share landscape has seen changes over the past few years. FTNTand HPE have maintained around 10% share while CSCO has ramped rapidly in recent yearswith 27% market share in 2025 (we estimate 28% in 2026). ANET is a small player with LSD share Analyst(s) Certification(s): I, Tim Long, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subjectsecurities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific Important Disclosures: Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors con