2026美国风险资本展望：我们的分析师对2026年风险市场的展望

2026 US VentureCapital Outlook Institutional Research Group Kyle Stanford, CAIADirector of Research, US Venturekyle.stanford@pitchbook.com Our analysts’ outlook on the venture market in 2026 Emily ZhengSenior Research Analyst,Venture Capitalemily.zheng@pitchbook.com PitchBook is a Morningstar company providing the most comprehensive, mostaccurate, and hard-to-find data for professionals doing business in the private markets. Kaidi GaoSenior Research Analyst,Venture Capitalkaidi.gao@pitchbook.com 2026 outlooks Susan HuQuantitative Research Analystsusan.hu@pitchbook.com 4The early stages of the market will see a surge in deal activity. 9Later-stage deal activity will remain strong. pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com 13Liquidity will return, though recovery will remain uneven. Published on December 1, 2025 16Fundraising has bottomed out, and a gradual rebound awaits as distributionsand LP sentiment improve. Introduction Optimism in the US venture market heading into 2026 may not differ much from thatat the start of 2025. Public markets had been trading at or near all-time highs, liquidityis still a major concern for venture capital, and further rate cuts are expected as thenew year begins. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions continue, though their impact onmarkets has somewhat lessened, and inflation is back to where it was a year ago. USGDP growth has returned to an annualized rate of 3.8% (as of Q2), aligning with the3.6% rate from a year prior. What is different is that the Trump administration has had nearly a year to implementits policies, reducing the chances of legislative surprises in 2026. Now, the likelihoodof rapid regulatory change in the market is low, contrasting sharply with last year whenthe changing administrations raised hopes of an M&A rebound and a more relaxedregulatory environment. Overall, we maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2026,expecting tempered growth in IPOs, relatively improved market liquidity throughsecondaries, and continued growth in the number of completed deals, especially at theearly stages. Liquidity will remain the primary challenge for the VC market in 2026. Despite arebound in exit value in 2025, the year’s total is projected to fall below $300 billion,trailing not only 2021 but also 2020 and 2019. Fourth place is not bad, except thatthe net asset value (NAV) of VC has doubled since 2020, with the prior three yearsalso having relatively low exit values. However, both big-ticket M&A and the numberof unicorns going public noticeably increased in 2025. Exits of $500 million or moreaccounted for 91% of total exit value through Q3. We expect exit counts to continue to increase. Barring a major market event, publicmarket multiples will likely keep expanding. Although the Federal Trade Commissionhas not explicitly commented on lowering M&A barriers, none of the year’s large dealshas faced as much scrutiny as it might have under the previous administration. This isanother positive sign for the market. With nearly half of unicorns being held for at leastnine years, liquidity for these companies cannot rely solely on the public market. Despite these positive indicators, broad LP sentiment remains poor. Since 2022, netcash flows to LPs have been negative by $169 billion. The time to close new funds hasincreased sharply as LPs hesitate to commit more capital without any distributions.This has led to a concentration of capital among established firms. We knew thattraditional venture mechanics would break with the extended liquidity timelines, andwe are starting to see that happen. On the dealmaking side, AI continues to foster optimism. It was a key driver ofthe surge in billion-dollar funds, and the nature of the AI market has significantimplications for venture. AI startups have captured 65% of the total VC deal value inthe US YTD, and more than half of new unicorns are AI companies. The market value ofAI startups exceeds $1 trillion. AI is often seen as a single sector, such as climate tech,or a specific business model, such as software as a service; however, it is increasinglybecoming an essential part of a broader range of industries, including biotech,enterprise productivity, and the previously mentioned climate tech. There is an endless stream of new AI tools being developed and adopted bycorporations worldwide. It has been challenging for large companies to develop theirown AI tools, so many have turned to tools created by startups. Through the firstthree quarters of 2025, first-time financings were nearing the all-time high set in 2021.While this has led to a rally in the early stages of venture, it has also led to crowdedvertical segments that will bifurcate into a few winners and many losers. The pace ofinvestment in AI continues to increase despite the venture market’s slow liquidity andlow fundraising levels. Should those flip in 2026, deal counts could reach levels seen in2020 and 2021. We are more optimistic about early funding stages