康明斯：2026年分析师日——进入主电源市场，但业绩指引未达预期

Chad Dillard+1 917 344 8469chad.dillard@bernsteinsg.com U.S. Machinery Cummins Inc Miguel Marques, CFA+1 917 344 8432miguel.marques@bernsteinsg.com Rating Market-Perform Steve Song+1 917 344 8401steve.song@bernsteinsg.com Price Target CMI 700.00 USD Cummins: 2026 Analyst Day - Entering prime power market, but CMI closed down 5% after updating its 2030 guide. Targets underwhelmed, despite raisingrevenues from $43-48B to $45-50B, and EBITDA margin from 17-18% to >20%, implyingEBITDA 10% below street. Also as expected, CMI is entering data center prime power with anew 4 MW natural gas engine, with first deliveries in ‘28. Close Date21 May 2026CMI Close Price (USD)638.78Price Target (USD)700.00Upside/(Downside)10%52-Week Range718.08/307.91SPX7,445.72FYEDecDiv Yield1.3%Market Cap (USD) (M)88,145EV (USD) (M)94,224 Entering prime power and adding further capacity in standby.The critical strategyupdate of the day came in the form of 1) its newly announced 4 MW nat gas recipe enginefor data center prime power and 2) further standby capacity expansion. After wrapping upits 9 GW, $200M standby capacity increase in 4Q25, mgmt is adding another 20 MW incapacity (to 55 GW by 2030), costing $450M. Behind this, mgmt also expects its data centerrevenues to grow from $5B in ‘25 to $9B+ by ‘30, implying a 12% CAGR. For context,a)street’s Power Gen revenue CAGR stands at 15%, b) peer GNRC who entered data centerstandby this year is guiding to a mid-low 20s CAGR thru ‘28 (street high-20s), andc)CAT’sPower Gen guide implies a 20% CAGR from ‘24-30. The CMI guide strikes us as conservative Engine to be driven by margin accretive content and aftermarket opportunities.WithEPA ‘27 on deck, CMI’s Engine strategy is focused on what it can control:a)growing content, b)leaning into its most technologically advanced engine platform yet to drive share gains,andc)capture incremental aftermarket revenues. As they come off their peak investment Mgmt updated its growth algo to 6-9% top-line CAGR through 2030with 2-3pptscoming equally from data center, higher Engine content, and growth in other end markets. Investment Implications Maintain Market-Perform rating,$700TP DETAILS EXHIBIT 2:The 6-9% CAGR Guide, or 7.5% Midpoint, is Well Below Street’s +9.4% CAGR EXHIBIT 5:On CMI’s Framework, We Estimate This Roughly Gets to ~$46 in 2030 EPS (7% Below Street). AssumingReaches Breakeven Could Add Another $1-2 in EPS, Getting to ~$47 in EPS (4% Below Street) EXHIBIT 6:On a SoTP Basis, if We Assume CMI’s Data Center Guide is Reflective of its Power Systems CAGR, thenthe Power Systems Business Warrants a 35x Multiple, in our view. On Street’s 15% CAGR, Power Warrants a 45xMultiple EXHIBIT 10:CMI’s Updated 2030 Guidance Sees $45-50B in Revenue, 4% Higher Than Their Prior Guide of $43-48Bat the Midpoint. It Also Assumes >20% EBITDA Margins vs. Their Prior Guide of 17-18% EXHIBIT 12:Engine Business Catalysts: 1) Content, 2) Aftermarket, and 3) Lapping Peak Investment EXHIBIT 14:Data Centers Generated ~$5B in Revenue in FY25. CMI Expects This to Grow to $9B+ by 2030 APPENDIX - FINANCIAL FORECASTS BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE DISCLOSURE APPENDIX I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernstein Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Cummins Inc Our $700 price target is based on a 22x P/E multiple to our 2027 EPS, which we believe is appropriate given (1) our SoTPframework that is separately values its structural Power Systems business and cyclical RemainCo business, (2) where we are inthe current cycle, (3) relative valuation vs. the S&P 500 index, and (4) the company’s respective market/portfolio positioning. RISKS Cummins Inc Upside/Downside risks include the following: 1) a better/worse than expected cyclical recovery; 2) higher/lower market sharegains/losses; 3) higher/lower component intensity; 4) better/worse cost structure management; 5) more/less aggressive RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION EQUITY RATINGS DEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of