交易驱动因素：2026年第一季度美洲

D E A LD R I V E R SAmericas Q1 2026A spotlight on mergers and acquisitions trends 1Foreword: A region running hot2Outlook: Americas heat chart3Summary: Riding the AI premium4Spotlight: Mexico5Spotlight: Argentina6Canada7Western US8Midwestern US9Southern US10Northeastern US11Brazil12Latin America & Caribbean (excl. Brazil)13About this report Foreword A region running hot Polls apart North of the border, Canada is navigating an existential pivot. MarkCarney’s snap election and his junking of Trudeau’s carbon tax signalsa shift toward industrial competitiveness over green transition purity, The US Supreme Court’s February 20 ruling striking down IEEPA tariffsmerely swapped one headache for another. The White House immediatelypivoted to Section 122, imposing a 10% baseline, later raised to 15%,through July 24, 2026. The Federal Reserve has confirmed the damage: Brazil faces its own reckoning ahead of October elections, withHormuz-driven oil volatility delaying the central bank’s easing cycleand widening fiscal risk premiums. Yet capital continues to gravitate Markets have proven defyingly buoyant. The S&P 500 initially shednearly 8% on Hormuz fears, only to snap back to all-time highs onhigher earnings expectations and a sizable dose of AI speculation.Companies are underwriting acquisitions to close capability gaps in Above all, the Americas is increasingly defined by its M&A concentration.While mid-market activity idles, megadeals in AI, energy, and Outlook Americas heat chart Mergermarket is tracking 2,366 “companies for sale” stories across theAmericas, with the Northeastern US alone contributing 816 opportunities– more than a third of the total pipeline. That concentration is visible inthe region’s 214 technology, media & telecoms (TMT) stories and 165 In life sciences, the obesity drug boom has shifted buyer attention fromearly-stage molecule acquisition to manufacturing capacity, with buyersnow targeting fill-finish, delivery platform, and dual-agonist capabilities to Real returns Belowthe Belt In the Southern US, 495 tracked stories are led by PMB (105),TMT (96), business services (68), consumer (60), and industrials& chemicals (I&C, 51). The digital and industrial stories are equallycompelling. The region is emerging as a major node in America’s Outside the US, Brazil is the most active market with 150 trackedstories, concentrated in consumer (24), energy, mining & utilities (EMU)(23), and financial services (20). The consumer pipeline reflects a retail In energy, the biofuels sector is commanding capital as never before,driven by corn ethanol’s cost competitiveness and the Future Fuel Law’sescalating blend mandates targeting 30% ethanol in gasoline and 20%biodiesel in diesel by 2030, which insulate Brazil from global oil priceshocks. As for financial services, digital challengers are scaling rapidly In TMT, the pipeline extends beyond data center real estate intoenterprise software and Internet-of-Things (IoT) platforms serving theindustrial base, as manufacturers digitize operations to manage tariff-driven supply-chain volatility. The 51 I&C stories are underpinned by US runs red-hotwhile rest of Americas sputters Summary Riding the AI premium The Americas entered this year with the US economy grinding higherrelative to advanced-economy peers. The IMF anchors growth at 2.3% for2026, well above the euro area’s 1.1% and Japan’s 0.8%, but tariff pass- Consumer sentiment is extremely poor, in part fueled by concerns overfuture employment prospects. That unease reflects where capital isconverging – AI investment is powering tech capex at a torrid rate, That same gravitational pull is evident in the Americas’ M&A data, as theregion logged its strongest Q1 on record. Total value rose 35.6% year-on-year to US$821bn in total value, and volume slipped just 3.6% to 3,782 Smart bets TMT value surged 52.3% to US$301.8bn as capital crowded into AImodel developers at premium valuations, while volume dipped 4.9% to999 deals, representing a decisive shift toward later-stage financings. Volume trends were more subdued: business services edged up 3.2% to606 deals, while I&C shed 4.8% to 432 transactions, logging less than half The PE market was even more concentrated. Buyout value nearly doubled,rising 92.2% year-on-year to US$345.5bn, yet volume retreated 7.8% to929 deals. The largest sponsors are still securing commitments and writingoutsized checks. KKR closed its US$23bn North America Fund XIV in Q1, the AI takeover Breaking its own record twice in quick succession, OpenAI securedUS$122bn for its latest round, the largest in history and biggest dealin Q1. The round was anchored by Amazon, NVIDIA, and SoftBank, with A BlackRock GIP and EQT-led consortium is taking AES private in aUS$38.4bn deal, paying a 40% premium as the clean-energy giantscales capacity to power AI data centers across the Americas. AES is Investor demand for the assets driving the generative AI economyrewarded Ant