您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。 [招银国际]:1Q26结果领先;稳健的收入增长势头得以持续 - 发现报告

1Q26结果领先;稳健的收入增长势头得以持续

2026-05-21 Saiyi HE,Ye TAO,Wentao LU,Shuyin GUO 招银国际 测试专用号1普通版
报告封面

growth momentum to sustain 1Q26 results beat; solid revenue growth Target PriceUS$3.98Up/Downside56.7%Current PriceUS$2.54 Baozun reported its 1Q26 results, with revenue reaching RMB2.4bn, up 15% YoY(4Q25: +6% YoY),3.0%/3.5%ahead of our forecast/Bloomberg consensus,driven by beats in both the Baozun E-commerce (BEC) and Baozun BrandManagement(BBM)businesses.Non-GAAP NP attributable to ordinaryshareholders was RMB1mn, compared with a loss of RMB57mn in 1Q25,supported by improved operating profitability across both BEC and BBM. This wasalso better than our forecast/Bloomberg consensus of losses of RMB7mn/RMB13mn. We expect solid revenue growth momentum to continue in 2Q26E,and look for 10% YoY revenue growth. Baozun is prioritizing higher-quality China Internet Saiyi HE, CFA(852) 39161739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO, CFA(852) 3850 5226franktao@cmbi.com.hk Wentao LU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hk 1Q26 results came in better than our expectations.In 1Q26, BECrecorded revenue of RMB1.9bn, up 10% YoY (1Q25: +1%; 4Q25: +2%),while non-GAAP operating profit (OP) improved to RMB13.0mn, comparedwith a loss of RMB46mn in 1Q25, and was 1% ahead of our forecast.Meanwhile, BBM delivered revenue of RMB538mn, up 39% YoY and 5%ahead of ourestimate.BBM’s non-GAAP operating loss narrowed to Shuyin GUO(852) 3916 3716guoshuyin@cmbi.com.hk 2Q26E outlook: solid revenue growth momentum to continue.For2Q26E, we estimate YoY revenue growth of 7.5%/22.5% for the BEC/BBMbusinesses. We expect BEC to continue focusing on operating efficiencyimprovement,with non-GAAP OP reaching RMB102mn in 2Q26E,compared with RMB41mn in 2Q25. For BBM, we anticipate a non-GAAPoperating loss of RMB33mn, narrowing from a loss of RMB35mn in 2Q25,driven by operating efficiency improvement in the GAP business, partly Maintain BUY and SOTP-based TPunchanged at US$3.98.Our SOTP-based target price remains unchanged at US$3.98, based on a valuation ofRMB1.6bn/US$233mn, consisting of: 1) RMB1.3bn for BEC, based on 5.0x2026E EV/EBIT; 2) RMB769mn for BBM, based on an unchanged 0.4x2026E EV/sales; and3) RMB2.0bn in net cash. We apply a 60% holding- Source: FactSet Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related tothe specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in ortraded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2)willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. CMBIGM Ratings BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15%over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable for the purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns from, any investments are uncertain and are not guaranteed and may fluctuate as a result of their dependence on theperformance of underlying assets or other variable market factors.CMBIGMrecommends that investors should independently evaluate particular investments or its affiliate(s) to whom it is distributed. This report is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation tobuy or sell any security or any interest insecurities or enter into any transaction.NeitherCMBIGMnor any of its affiliates,shareholders, agents, consultants, directors, officers or employees shall beliable for any loss, damage or expense whatsoever, whether direct or consequential, incurred in relying on the information contained in this report.Anyonemaking use of the information contained in this report does so entirely at their own risk. CMBIGMhas exerted everyeffort in its capacity to ensure, but not to guarantee