SK海力士（000660 KP）：买入：DRAM价格再超预期

Semiconductors & Equipment • Robust server demand driving not only server DRAM prices,butalsomobileDRAMpricehikesforlonger+ Further solid csP capex increase amid rise in cloud service feesto improveROiCofdata centres+RetainBuyratingwithnewTPofKRW2.9m(fromKRW1.8m) 2,900,0001,800,000 factoring in earnings and multiple upgrade 1,880,000+54.3%(as of 11 May 2026) from stronger DRAM price trends in both server and mobile DRAM. We see 2Qoperating profit 14% higher at KRW65trn (+73% q-0-q, +606% y-0-y), with sales ofKRW80trn (+52 q-0-q, +260% y-o-y). Key upside comes from higher DRAM ASP at+40%q-o-g (vs28%seenpreviously),factoringin:1)strongerserverandmobileprice hikes amid robust general server demand; 2) capacity conversion from PC toserverdriving PC DRAM price hikes as well; and 3)HBM3eprice rebound in order tonarrowthe pricediscount overPC DRAM.We see2026OP13%higher atKRW265trn (+460% y-0-y), with sales of KRW329trn (+238% y-0-y). Booming general server demand supporting DRAM price hikes: General serverdemand from data centres is rising sharply due to: 1) orchestrating the rapidlyemergingAlagents;and 2)less power consumption thanAl servers,raisingappetitefor mix optimization. According to TrendForce, the mix of Al and general servers in Aldata centres should reach 1:1 from the current 4-8:1, boosting long-term growth ofgeneral servers and benefiting memory makers.SO-CAMM2 growth, started byNVIDIAVera CPU, will spreadto other ARM based CPUs,which we thinklooksformidable and should boost AsP further upwards with premium. Robust csP capex: We think: 1) the memory cycle is at a midpoint similar to the1990-95supercyclewhenofficeautomation led toa6yrDRAMshortage;2)Al isdiversifyingmemorydemandtoSO-CAMM2andICMS fromHBMto lowercosts pertoken and boosting Al usage; 3) CsPs will continue their aggressive capex as servicefees are rising andbetter ROiC is expected.With a substantial decrease in costs andAl usage increase through agentic Al, the margins for leading Al service providerslook to rise.This will make data centre investment easier due to higher ROiCexpectations.2026 capex growth for the major 4 CSP rose to USD640bn (+70% y-0-y),from +60% before 1Q earnings. Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates Ricky Seo*Head ofKorea Research, Semiconductor and DisplayThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Seoul Securities Branchrickyjuilseo@kr.hsbc.com+82 2 37068777 Han Kil Chang*Research Analyst, Korea TechnologyThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Seoui Securities Branchhan.kil.chang@kr.hsbc.com+822 3706 8750 Retain Buy; newTP ofKRW2.9m (from KRW1.8m):Factoring in strong DRAMpriceassumptions,weraiseour2026/27/28OPby13%/19%/21%.As themarketlooks to factor in alongerand stable earnings trend until 2028,we shift our referenceperiod to 2027-28 average BVPS (from 2027).We lift our target PB multiple to 2.8x(from 2.4x), the historical peak, factoring in better ROE and comparability with USlisted competitors as the company is proceeding to list its ADRs.Even at our TP theimpliedP/Ewouldonlybe7x2027/28eaverageEPS.OurOP estimate is9-13%higherthanBloombergconsensusfor2027-28e.Downsiderisks:1)higherUSinterest rates as neo-CsPs and Open Al implement investment via financing;2)aggressive capacity expansion at memory makers; 3)the Middle East conflict. *Employed by a non-US affliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/qualfed pursuant toFINRAregulations HBFundinthFuureSuveySentimn,Aand.licktw Issuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited, Seoul SecuritiesBranch Disclosures&Disclaimer Thisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsinthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. ViewHSBC Global Investment Research at:https:/www.research.hsbc.com Source: DRAMeXchange, HSBC estimates Source: DRAMeXchange, HSBC estimates Source: DRAMeXchange, HSBC estimates Source: Company data, HSBC estimates Exhibit 24.Details of historical upcycles of theDRAM market, bykey eventsUpcycles (1) 1990-1995(2) 1998-2000Strong replacement demand from the'Y2K'crisis, leading to even stronger PC replacement investment(3) 2002-2006Demand for downloadable services spiked with the help of slim notebook demand from LCD, release of iPod, and development of legacy cell phones(4) 2009-2010Launch of the world's first smartphone, and start of a new era in mobile application demand(5) 2012-2015Prolonged upcycle due to sudden supply reduction from majorfire incidentin SKHynix's China facilties(6) 2016-2018Widespread adoption of streaming services, leading to accelerated investment in cloud infrastructure and digital transition(7) 2020-2022Unprecedented demand boom from WFH' trend causing more demand for PC, Chromebooks, and Tablet computers amid the global pandemic(8)1H24-currentGen Alapplication demand growth, core of Al is moving from training (GPU)to inferencing (memory)Source: HSBC Source: Company data, HSBC estimates Source: Company dat