早晨洞察：2026年5月15日

Morning Insight:May 15, 2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Lithium Carbonate:Elevated volatility intensifies. Yesterday, lithiumcarbonate futures opened sharply higher before reversing lower, with the From the spot market perspective, according to SMM data, lithiumcarbonate production increased by 122 tonnes this week, while inventoriesdeclined by 1,255 tonnes. However, SMM estimates that total lithium In the short term, cautious positioning is recommended. Key factors tomonitor going forward include the pace of domestic mine restarts, Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. China's yuan-denominated loans rose 8.59 trillion yuan (about 1.26trillion U.S. dollars) in the first four months of 2026, central bank At the end of April, outstanding yuan loans stood at 280.5 trillion yuan,up 5.6 percent year on year, according to the People's Bank of China. The M1, which coverscash in circulation, demand deposits and clientreserves of non-bank payment institutions, reached 114.58 trillion yuan Aggregate financing to the real economy was 15.45 trillion yuan in the Yuan deposits rose by 14 trillion yuan during the period, withoutstanding yuan deposits increasing 8.9 percent year on year to 342.68 deposits rising 19.9 percent year on year. China will continue to apply an appropriately accommodative monetary 2. Several Chinese carriers, including Air China, China Southern Airlinesand Xiamen Airlines, have announced plans to increase fuel surcharges on For routes of 800 kilometers and below, the fuel surcharge will be set at90 yuan (about 13.16 U.S. dollars) per flight segment, and 170 yuan per For tickets on domestic routes sold on or before May 15, any changes made Chinese airlines currently levy a fuel surcharge of 60 yuan on domesticroutes of 800 kilometers and below, and 120 yuan on routes exceeding 800 3. The People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, announced onThursday that it will conduct a 300-billion-yuan (about 43.8 billion U.S. The operation will have a fixed quantity and be carried out throughinterest-rate bidding, with winning bids determined at multiple price Outright reverse repo operations--a tool the central bank introduced inOctober 2024 to manage liquidity in the national banking system--are These operations have enriched the country's monetary policy toolkit,complementing previous measures such as temporary repos, temporary Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release. The prices of the underlying futures analyzed in the report may fluctuate, and past The research services mentioned in this report may not be suitable for individual clients and do not constitute private consulting advice forclients. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this report are appropriate when applied to their specific situation.Under no circumstances do the research or opinions expressed in this report constitute investment advice to any individual person. Under Copyright Statement The copyright of this report is solely owned by the Company. Without written permission, no institution or individual may reproduce, copy,publish, or quote this report in any form. If consent is obtained from the Company for citation or publication, it must be used within thepermitted scope, and the source must be indicated as "Guotai Junan Futures Research," along with a reminder of the risks associated Unless otherwise specified, all trademarks, service marks, and logos used in this report are owned by Guotai Junan Futures orare legallyauthorized for use. No individual or institution may use these trademarks, service marks, or logos without the writtenpermission of Guotai